Current Measurements of the Japan Sea Proper Water and the Intermediate Water by ALACE Floats

The subsurface current of the Japan Sea was observed by two Autonomous Lagrangian Circulation Explorer (ALACE) floats. One float, having a 20-day cycle, was deployed on 29 July 1995 in the eastern Japan Basin and drifted in the northeastern part of the basin until 15 September 2000. The other float, with a 10-day cycle, was deployed on 4 August 1995 in the western Japan Basin and drifted in the western Japan Basin, in the Yamato Basin and around the Yamato Rise until it reached its life limit in mid-May 2000. An anticlockwise circulation in the eastern Japan Basin was observed and it was assumed to be in the upper portion of the Japan Sea Proper Water (UJSPW) or in the intermediate water. The spatial scale of the circulation increased as the depth decreased. A clockwise circulation was observed around the Yamato Rise in the UJSPW. Smaller clockwise and anticlockwise rotations were observed in the western Japan Sea, where a seasonal variation was seen in drift speed with different phase by depth. The correlation coefficient between drift speeds of two floats indicated little coherence among the subsurface circulation between the east and the west of the Japan Basin, or between the north and the south of the subpolar front. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

福建春季(3～4月)降水异常的特征分析

本文取全省25个代表站1960－1999年3－4月的降水资料和北半球500hPa高度资料、北太平洋海温的月平均资料为素材，首先标定降水的异常指数和异常年例，其次应用小波分析、自相关、功率谱和周期分析等方法揭示降水的演变规律，最后分析异常降水的500hPa环流背景和海温特征，所得结果可为我省春季降水的短期气候预测提供线索。     

ElNio夏季太平洋上空垂直环流特征及我国汛期降水

本文利用NCAR(美国国家大气研究中心)1976年太平洋各层风场资料,计算了0°—50°N,105°E—110°W范围内,7月850hPa,700hPa,500hPa,300hPa,250hPa和200hPa各层上的垂直运动,并与叶笃正等所作的太平洋上空夏季平均环流特征作比较得出:(1)常年Walker环流明显,而E1 Ni(?)o发生年热带西太平洋上升运动减弱,东太平洋空气下沉区变成了强上升区,Walker环流下沉区东移至110°W以东;(2)常年热带西太平洋Hadley环流不明显,沿160°E以东Hadley环流越来越清楚,呈向东递增的趋势,而E1 Ni(?)o年Hadley环流东西变化甚为复杂,Hadley环流的上升支并不在赤道附近,而移至10°N左右,明显较常年偏北,Hadley环流也变成自热带向副热带倾斜的环流圈;(3)E1 Ni(?)o发生年,夏季以淮河为中心的空气上升区变成下沉区,而37°N以北的华北地区仍是上升区,华北多雨,所以出现Ⅰ型降水。     

普通黑烟囱热液系统及巨羽流形成的基本数学模型

建立了一种新的管状模型来模拟普通黑烟囱体的热液循环系统,分别用达西方程、湍流方程、Ergun方程和“浮压力差”方程来描述热液循环不同关键环节处的动力学系统,用一个温度场的对流-扩散方程来描述反应区的热能交换及系统的温度变化规律.在联立几个方程并用有效的数值算法及Matlab语言编程求解后,得出了系统中温度、压力及物质流速随时间的变化曲线,并对黑烟囱体内部的动态热平衡和压力平衡进行了分析.在普通黑烟囱体系统模型的基础上进一步建立了巨型羽状流(巨羽流)生成的数学模型.选择胡安·德富卡(Juan de Fuca)洋脊热液喷口对巨羽流的形成进行了模拟,其结果与Baker根据实测数据估算的近似值吻合很好.在上述模型的基础上进一步探讨了巨羽状流形成的一系列条件及主要参数对巨羽流生成周期、温度和最大物质流速等的影响.主要结论如下:巨羽流系统可以由普通黑烟囱系统发展演化而成,其实际过程是普通黑烟囱流系统活动所形成的热液沉积在一定程度上会堵塞热液喷溢通道(相当于形成盖层),造成热液在海底之下积蓄和升温,从而导致浮压力差增大,经过2~3 a(浮压力差达到盖层破裂极限值)则可形成巨羽流系统,巨羽流产生时的热源温度必须超过500℃,喷出热液的最高温度为413℃左右(与实际观测到的海底热液的最高温度一致).当反应区热源温度增大时,产生巨羽流的临界时间明显变短(可能不到1 a),而临界温度(巨羽流生成时的温度)及巨羽流的最大物质流速几乎不随其变化;随着渗透率的增大,巨羽流的最大物质流速也随之增大,但其增速随渗透率的进一步增大而变缓,并逐渐趋向一个相当于下渗流无摩擦阻力时的极限稳定值.     

一次台风引发的远距离暴雨诊断分析

台风对远距离暴雨的作用形式复杂,容易出现极端降水,量级和落区的预报难度大。2014年8月8日江苏东部到浙江北部出现暴雨,通过研究数值预报形势场、再分析场和各类实况资料,发现暴雨的产生与远在1300km外的西太平洋上的台风"夏浪"有关。江苏东部暴雨主要由中尺度涡旋造成,台风通过北侧偏东气流向暴雨区输送暖湿空气,有利于暴雨的形成与维持;浙江北部暴雨是中尺度涡旋与台风环流结合的产物,台风北上过程中,中心与中尺度涡旋逐渐靠近,台风外围环流对涡旋产生牵引,流场形势发生改变,引导弱冷空气在浙北近海附近与暖空气交汇辐合抬升引发暴雨,不稳定能量剧烈释放产生的中γ尺度气旋造成了极端强降水。     

前兆逆向追踪法与台湾地震前兆

用前兆逆向追踪法研究台湾东部地区大地震前兆, 讨论适合该地区地震链和中期图象的参数,确定地震链的中期图象阈值. 将线性判别方法应用于地震链的中期图象,给出一种探索大地震前兆的途径. 数据分析结果表明,这种途径可降低对该地区大地震的虚报率; 前兆逆向追踪法在台湾地区是适用的.      

Abrupt Climate Change around 4 ka BP:Role of the Thermohaline Circulation as Indicated by a GCM Experiment

A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridiflcation occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia     

青藏高原感热加热异常与夏季低频环流的数值研究

使用科学院大气物理研究所两层大气环流模式，就青藏高原地表感热通量异常减少对夏季东半球大气环流及亚洲季风低频变化的影响进行了数值试验研究。结果表明：高原地区感热通量异常减少时，南海及西太平洋地区低频振荡方差百分率增大；高原感热异常加热对东亚和印度季风子系统具有不同的影响，季风区低频扰动的位相，中高纬低频扰动的结构，强度和经向传播速度都发生改变，ＥＡＰ波列变得更为清楚典型，大圆上的低频涡旋一直传播到我     

Numerical Study of Ural Blocking High’s Effect Upon Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and East China Flood and Drought

In terms of Kuo-Qian p-sigma incorporated coordinate five-level primitive equation spheric band (70oN-30oS) model with the Ural high’s effect introduced into it as initial and boundary conditions, study is made of the high’s in-fluence on Asian summer monsoon circulation and dryness / wetness, of eastern China bated on case contrast and control experiments. Results show that as an excitation source, the blocking high produces a SE-NW stationary wavetrain with its upper-air atnicyclonic divergent circulation (just over a lower-level trough zone) precisely over the middle to lower reaches of the Changjiang River, enhancing East Asian westerly jet, a situation that contributes to perturbation growth, causing an additional secondary meridional circulation at the jet entrance, which intensifies the updraft in the monsoon area. As such, the high’s presence and its excited steady wavetrain represent the large-scale key factors and acting mechanisms for the rainstorm over the Chamgjiang-Huaihe River catchment in the eastern part of the land.     

2019年6月大气环流和天气分析

2019年6月大气环流主要特征是：北半球高纬度地区极涡呈单极分布且偏强,亚洲中高纬为“两槽一脊”的环流形势,西太平洋副热带高压以偏南为主,强度略偏强。全国平均气温为20.6℃,较常年同期（20.0℃）偏高0.6℃,全国平均降水量为99.8 mm,基本与常年同期（99.3 mm）持平。月内,我国中东部地区出现4次大范围强降水天气过程,南方遭受严重暴雨洪涝灾害;同时,华北、黄淮和云南等地少雨高温,气象干旱持续;华北、黄淮出现阶段性高温;多省(区)遭受风雹袭击,部分地区受灾较重。