Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model： a case study of the Sabae Area, Japan

A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system.     

14C dating and palaeoenvironment of the historic ‘little ice age’ glacier advance of Nigardsbreen Southwest Norway

Moss and grass remains associated with a well-developed in situ palaeosol buried beneath a moraine ridge in front of Nigardsbreen (Jostedalsbreen ice cap, southern Norway) have been ¹⁴C-dated. Pollen preserved with the plant remains suggests the existence of an agricultural landscape prior to the deposition of the moraine. The calibrated dates and the pollen spectra are in close accord with historically-documented evidence for the timing and palaeoenvironment of the ‘Little Ice Age’ advance of the glacier. Considerable potential is indicated for estimating the maximum ages of moraine ridges and for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction where such documentary evidence does not exist.     

辽西河坎子碱性侵入杂岩体及钼多金属矿床同位素年代学研究

对辽西河坎子地区与碱性杂岩体相关的钼多金属矿床进行了同位素年代学研究。所获黑云母正长花岗岩锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb同位素加权平均年龄为(235.3±1.0) Ma,MSWD值为0.68;河坎子钼多金属矿床内辉钼矿的Re-Os同位素等时线年龄为(224.0±1.3) Ma,MSWD值为0.72。碱性杂岩体与相关的钼多金属矿床具有密切的空间关系,两者的形成时间亦比较接近,据此可推测,河坎子碱性杂岩体与相关的钼多金属矿床均为印支期构造-岩浆作用及流体活动的产物。印支期内频繁的岩浆-热液活动为该地区内钼、铜、金多金属元素的活化、迁移、富集提供了充足的热源条件。古大陆内部伸展构造环境中的碱性岩浆作用及流体活动为钼多金属矿床的形成提供了动力、物质和流体来源。     

江西周潭群同位素年龄特征及其地质意义

通过对江西弋阳、余江两地周潭群变质岩系中斜长角闪的Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ、锆石同位素研究,确认周潭群的形成时代为１１００～１２００Ｍａ,属中元古代地层,而不是晚元古代地层,该岩系形成后经受了晋宁（９００Ｍａ左右）和印支运动（２００Ｍａ左右）的区域构造作用影响。     

麻江古油藏油源识别与油气运聚分析：来自油气地球化学的证据

充分考虑热演化过程中烃源岩干酪根、族组分、固体沥青及正构烷烃碳同位素相互关系及变化规律,通过地球化学分析并结合前人碳同位素及芳烃标志物研究进行综合分析,结果表明古油藏各区域储层早期均存在下寒武统黑色泥岩来源,后期来源有较大差别,麻江古背斜以南各地沥青均不同程度与中寒武统都柳江组有关,北凯里液态原油及油苗为五峰组及龙马溪组印支期成藏产物,其保存环境为储层早期成岩过程中形成的独立封闭系统。在油源识别的基础上,结合构造地质背景、油气成藏条件及流体活动规律分析,认为黔南坳陷及邻区下寒武统、都柳江组、五峰组及龙马溪组烃源岩的分布控制了该区油气富集规律,黔南海西期断裂系统与加里东运动形成的不整合面构成不同期次油气运聚的输导系统,海西期形成的一系列正断裂是麻江古油藏成藏的关键。     

Direct dating of folding events by 40Ar/39Ar analysis of synkinematic muscovite from flexural-slip planes

Timing of folding is usually dated indirectly, with limited isotopic dating studies reported in the literature. The present study investigated the timing of intracontinental, multi-stage folding in Upper Proterozoic sandstone, limestone, and marble near Beijing, North China, and adjacent regions. Detailed field investigations with microstructural, backscattered electron (BSE) images and electron microprobe analyses indicate that authigenic muscovite and sericite crystallized parallel to stretching lineations/striations or along thin flexural-slip surfaces, both developed during the complex deformation history of the study area, involving repeated compressional, extensional and strike-slip episodes. Muscovite/sericite separates from interlayer-slip surfaces along the limbs and from dilatant sites in the hinges of folded sandstones yield muscovite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages of ∼158–159 Ma, whereas those from folded marble and limestone samples yield ages of 156 ± 1 Ma. Muscovite from thin flexural-slip planes on fold limbs and hinges yields ages within analytical error of ∼155–165 Ma. Further muscovite samples collected from extensionally folded limestone and strike-slip drag folds yield younger ages of 128–125 Ma with well-defined plateaus. To assess the potential influence of the detrital mica component of the host rock on the age data, two additional muscovite samples were investigated, one from a folded upper Proterozoic–Cambrian sandstone outside the Western Hills of Beijing and one from a folded sandstone sampled 20 cm from folding-related slip planes. Muscovite separates from these samples yield significantly older ages of 575 ± 2 Ma and 587 ± 2 Ma, suggesting that the timing of folding can be directly determined using the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method. This approach enables the identification and dating of distinct deformation events that occur during multi-stage regional folding. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating can be used to constrain the timing of muscovite and sericite growth at moderate to low temperatures (<400 °C) during folding, yielding well-defined plateau ages and thereby the age of deformation in the upper crust.     

湖泊自生碳酸盐氧同位素环境记录研究：（一）环境解释模型

湖泊自生碳酸盐氧同位素组成(δ18OC)在区域气候与环境变化方面的应用研究近年来发展迅速,成果令人瞩目,保存在各类湖泊沉积物柱芯中的δ18OC记录揭示了湖泊水温乃至汇水区域气温,湖泊不同水深处的水温差异、湖泊水位、降水δ18O、冰川融水δ18O、湖水盐度等重要的气候和环境信息。对前人通过研究来自不同类型湖泊、具不同曲线形态的δ18OC记录提出的多种环境解释模型进行了归纳。     

长岭凹陷深层天然气藏中CO_2及CH_4充注次序的流体包裹体证据

对长岭凹陷深层天然气藏储层——营城组火山岩中发育的流体包裹体进行了详细研究,结果表明在火山岩发育的石英、方解石细网脉中均存在较多的碳质流体包裹体,单个包裹体激光拉曼光谱分析结果表明其主要为CO2及CH4两种类型的碳质包裹体。其中方解石细网脉体中发育有原生及次生CH4包裹体,而含CO2包裹体多以原生包裹体产于石英细网脉中。很多含CO2包裹体的石英细脉中发现了含CH4包裹体的方解石脉体的角砾,这就表明石英细脉形成晚于方解石细脉。营城组火山岩储层中CO2及CH4包裹体的产状特征研究表明,松辽盆地深层天然气藏的形成系火山岩成岩后CO2及CH4等气体不同期次充注的结果,CH4气的充注时间早于CO2气,火山岩中发育的原生孔隙及次生裂隙为上述气体的充注和聚集提供了重要通道。     

浙中后山店花岗斑岩体的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年、锆石Hf同位素及其地质意义

针对浙中地区后山店花岗斑岩体进行高精度LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年和锆石Lu-Hf同位素的测定。测年结果显示其加权平均年龄值为148.5 Ma±1.2 Ma(MSWD=1.4),说明浙中地区有晚侏罗世侵入岩的存在,属于燕山早期晚阶段岩浆活动的产物,其成岩时代可能代表了古太平洋构造域下的板内岩浆活动和陆缘弧间的过渡阶段。锆石的εHf(t)值为-10.3~-3.5,均为负值,二阶段模式年龄tHf2(Ma)变化范围主要集中于1 400 Ma~1 829 Ma之间,反映其物质来源可能为中元古代下地壳基底物质,并在成岩过程中有幔源组分的参与。     

内蒙古北山造山带变辉绿岩和片麻状花岗岩锆石U-Pb年龄、Hf同位素组成及地质意义

北山造山带位于西伯利亚、哈萨克斯坦和塔里木三大板块交汇部位。通过对内蒙古北山造山带变辉绿岩和片麻状花岗岩的岩石学、岩石地球化学、锆石阴极发光结构、锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年龄、LA-MC-ICP MS锆石Lu-Hf同位素的多方面系统研究,并结合前人的研究成果,取得了如下主要认识：变辉绿岩具有略向右倾的稀土元素分布型式,Eu异常不明显,并亏损Ta、Nb等高场强元素;片麻状花岗岩稀土元素分布型式明显右倾,具Eu负异常与Nb、Ta、Zr、Hf、HREE亏损。变辉绿岩中的锆石主体结晶于114.8Ma±3.3Ma,为燕山期岩脉;片麻状花岗岩中锆石主体的结晶年龄为423Ma±4Ma,为加里东晚期的岩体,从而更正了过去对其年龄为古元古代或石炭纪的认识。变辉绿岩在岩浆侵位过程中同化混染了地壳组分,捕获了地壳中从中太古代到早白垩世的继承锆石。研究区从中太古代晚期至古元古代晚期,至少曾发生过5期壳幔分异事件,导致了地壳增生,并形成了该区古老的地壳基底。