山东埕岛东部东营组三角洲砂体地震预测技术

山东埕岛地区东营组是胜利油田近年来的一个勘探热点地区,资源潜力巨大。其主要发育河流和三角洲沉积体系,但砂体地震反射特征复杂,横向变化快,储层识别描述难度较大。通过建立全区高分辨率层序地层格架,在等时层序格架的基础上,开展储层描述。湖相沉积与三角洲相沉积在沉积物特征和地震响应上都具有较大差异,通过对已钻井的岩心、测井和录井等资料的分析,结合地震属性和地震相等宏观描述方法,在湖相沉积的背景之下刻画出三角洲的整体展布形态。在此基础上,针对三角洲主体区地震反射较弱、砂泥岩速度差异较小的特点,利用地震波形识别技术,采用6种参数对波形进行描述,得出12种波形分类,分别对应4种主要沉积微相。最终利用神经网络方法在平面上进行沉积微相的识别和刻画,取得了较好的效果。     

松花江流域地表水系分形维及其影响因素分析

应用分形理论,以DEM数据为基础数据,给出了以ArcGIS 9.2为研究平台的分形雏数计算方法,并将该方法应用于松花江流域地表水系的研究.结果表明松花江流域地表水系均处于发育的壮年期,针对分形雏数影响因素的复杂性,探讨了松花江流域地表水系分形维数的影响因素,认为地貌、土壤、植被和降水量是分形维数的主要影响因素,且部分地区降水量的影响作用被地形作用所屏蔽,并讨论了线性拟合过程中无标度区间数据选择问题,认为选在栅格尺寸大小水平即可得到较好的结果.     

羌塘盆地晚三叠世构造属性与层序地层格架下聚煤特征

依据近年来最新资料,通过对羌塘盆地南、北边界构造带构造属性、地球动力学机制及构造演化历程的讨论,剖析了羌塘盆地晚三叠世构造属性与盆地演化历程;在对盆地内部不同位置上三叠统岩性、岩相研究的基础上,通过不同古地理背景下层序界面与体系域界面的识别,建立了羌塘盆地晚三叠世层序地层格架,讨论了煤层在层序格架下的位置、聚煤特征及空间分布规律。研究表明,羌塘盆地晚三叠世为一复杂叠合盆地,经历了晚三叠世早、中期被动陆缘盆地,晚三叠世晚期羌北前陆盆地和羌南被动陆缘裂陷-坳陷盆地等不同的盆地演化历程;上三叠统构成一个完整的构造层序和两个三级层序,煤层位于高位体系域中上部,主要受控于高频率低级次海平面变化。具含煤岩系厚度大,煤层层数多,单层厚度小的特征;三角洲平原地带有利于煤层发育,三角洲沉积体系沿分割羌南、羌北盆地的中央隆起带发育,进一步指出该带是羌塘盆地内今后重要的找煤方向,并得到新发现的赛包玛煤点验证。     

空间信息属性分辨率分析

在今天数字城市、数字政府等领域内大规模应用地理信息系统的时候,属性信息为主的应用成为地理信息系统必须要考虑的一个方向。属性信息的种类和多寡将直接影响这类地理信息系统的应用程度和应用深度．属性分辨率将是种类和单个种类数量的函数。属性分辨率有助于分析地理信息市场的结构和组织。     

Clustering of temporal event processes

A temporal point process is a sequence of points, each representing the occurrence time of an event. Each temporal point process is related to the behavior of an entity. As a result, clustering of temporal point processes can help differentiate between entities, thereby revealing patterns of behaviors. This study proposes a hierarchical cluster method for clustering temporal point processes based on the discrete Fréchet (DF) distance. The DF cluster method is divided into four steps: (1) constructing a DF similarity matrix between temporal point processes; (2) constructing a complete linkage hierarchical tree based on the DF similarity matrix; (3) clustering the point processes with a threshold determined by locating the local maxima on the curve of the pseudo-F statistic (an index which measures the separability between clusters and the compactness in clusters); and (4) identifying inner patterns for each cluster formed by a series of dense intervals, each of which contains at least one event of all processes of the cluster. The contributions of the article are: (1) the proposed DF cluster method can cluster temporal point processes into different groups and (2) more importantly, it can identify the inner pattern of each cluster. Two synthetic data sets were created to illustrate the DF distance between temporal point process clusters (the first data set) and validate the proposed DF cluster method (the second data set), respectively. An experiment and a comparison with a method based on dynamic time warping show that DF cluster successfully identifies the preconfigured patterns in the second synthetic data set. The cluster method was then applied to a population migration history data set for the Northern Plains of the United States, revealing some interesting population migration patterns.     

A direct analysis of flood interval probability using approximately 100-year streamflow datasets

ABSTRACT

Series of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from 11 approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to return periods of approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 years. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedence probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson-Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the lifetime to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded, and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of the central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor I. Nalbantis     

基于GIS与MIS集成技术的房产管理信息系统设计与实现

针对房产信息管理对可视化、数字化的迫切需求,提出了GIS与MIS集成开发房产管理信息系统的想法,并对系统进行设计与实现。     

非等间距无偏GM（1,1）模型在建筑沉降预测中的应用

将非等间距数列转化为等间距数列,并建立无偏GM（1,1）模型.通过对非等间距数列的处理,得到适合GM（1,1）建模的等时距数列,并在GM（1,1）模型的基础上,给出非等间距无偏GM（1,1）建模的具体步骤.从理论上证明无偏GM（1,1）能消除GM（1,1）模型的固有偏差,拓宽GM（1,1）的使用范围.最后将模型应用于实际建筑沉降预测中,研究结果表明非等间距无偏（1,1）模型精度高、实用性强.     

Development of a GIS data model with spatial,temporal and attribute components based on object-oriented approach

This paper presents a conceptual data model, the STA-model, for handling spatial, temporal and attribute aspects of objects in GIS. The model is developed on the basis of object-oriented modeling approach. This model includes two major parts: (a) modeling the signal objects by STA-object elements, and (b) modeling relationships between STA-objects. As an example, the STA-model is applied for modeling land cover change data with spatial, temporal and attribute components.     

流体替代的地震反射振幅特征分析

在油田的开发阶段,注水或注气开采会引起储层物性的变化,同时储层所含流体也会发生改变,这就为时移地震监测提供了可能.笔者主要基于Gassmann方程,详细地论述了孔隙流体替代储层地震波速度和密度变化规律,并且根据预测的结果建立了含水饱和度变化地震地质模型.最后通过对该模型的振幅类地震属性分析,对地震属性进行了优选,找到了适合本工区时移地震监测的敏感性振幅属性,为预测工区剩余油的分布提供了基础.