基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法 ——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例

本文以四川盆地及其周缘五峰组—龙马溪组页岩气评价为例,总结了页岩气有利区优选的储层参数、保存参数和压力系数等参数,量化了各关键参数平面分布,运用多元线性回归分析方法计算了参数权重,通过多参数加权叠加公式建立了多元线性回归模型:有利区=-0.317+0.75×埋深+0.285×TOC+0.148×RO+0.093×孔隙度...     

Preliminary study on different nutrient pools supplies for the phytoplankton growth in the Jiaozhou Bay in China in the fall of 2004

The source and significance of two nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorous, were investigated by a modified dilution method performed on seawater samples from the Jiaozhou Bay, in autumn 2004. This modified dilution method accounted for the phytoplankton growth rate, microzooplankton grazing mortality rate, the internal and external nutrient pools, as well as nutrient supplied through remineralization by microzooplankton. The results indicated that the phytoplankton net growth rate increased in turn from inside the bay, to outside the bay, to in the Xiaogang Harbor. The phytoplankton maximum growth rates and microzooplankton grazing mortality rates were 1.14 and 0.92 d-1 outside the bay, 0.42 and 0.32 d-1 inside the bay and 0.98 and 0.62 d-1 in the harbor respectively. Outside the bay, the remineralized nitrogen (Kr=24.49) had heavy influence on the growth of the phytoplankton. Inside the bay, the remineralized phosphorus(Kr=3.49) strongly affected the phytoplankton growth. In the harbor, the remineralized phosphorus (Kr=3.73) was in larger demand by phytoplankton growth. The results demonstrated that the different nutrients pools supplied for phytoplankton growth were greatly in accordance with the phytoplankton community structure, microzooplankton grazing mortality rates and environmental conditions. It is revealed that nutrient remineralization is much more important for the phytoplankton growth in the Jiaozhou Bay than previously believed.     

Estimates of global M_2 internal tide energy fluxes using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data

TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data from October 1992 to June 2002 are used to calculate the global barotropic M2 tidal currents using long-term tidal harmonic analysis. The tides calculated agree well with ADCP data obtained from the South China Sea (SCS). The maximum tide velocities along the semi-major axis and semi-minor axis can be computed from the tidal ellipse. The global distribution of M2 internal tide vertical energy flux from the sea bottom is calculated based on a linear internal wave generation model. The global vertical energy flux of M2 internal tide is 0.96 TW, with 0.36 TW in the Pacific, 0.31 TW in the Atlantic and 0.29 TW in the Indian Ocean, obtained in this study. The total horizontal energy flux of M2 internal tide radiating into the open ocean from the lateral boundaries is 0.13 TW, with 0.06 TW in the Pacific, 0.04TW in the Atlantic, and 0.03 TW in the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the principal lunar semi-diurnal tide M2 provides enough energy to maintain the large-scale thermohaline circulation of the ocean.     

南海北部陆坡海域内波谱特征

本文对1998年南海季风实验中定点观测的声学多普勒流速剖面仪（Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler,ADCP）海流数据进行频谱分析,结果表明南海北部地区内波之间的非线性作用的强弱影响着该海域的内波谱特征。在季节性温跃层（水深22m和58m）中,由于存在着强的非线性作用,内波带的谱斜率趋于σ^-1和σ^-2之间,而且较高能量的潮谐波频率的峰值随着频率呈现少见的一。递减。在季节性温跃层（水深130m）以下,内波非线性相互作用较弱,观测的内波带谱特征与标准Garrett-Munk内波谱相似,均显示了σ^-2的谱斜率。     

Investigating internal waves east of the Hainan Island using optical satellite remote sensing data

Marginal water of east Hainan Island was an area that internal waves occurred frequently, however, few studies was found and mechanism for internal waves formation was unclear. In the paper, China Brazil earth Resources Satellite data (CBERS) was used to detect and calculate distribution, direction, wavelength and amplitude of internal waves in marginal water of east Hainan Island and the mechanism of internal waves formation was also analyzed, results showed that direction of internal wave was off shoreward and wavelength was about 150-200m . The mechanism for internal wave’s formation can be postulated as by upwelling or tide tracing back.     

A study of SAR remote sensing of internal solitary waves in the north of the South China Sea:I.Simulation of internal tide transformation

For settlement of the well-known problem of contemporary radar imaging models,i.e.,the pmblem of a general underestimation of radar signatures of hydrodynamic features over oceanic internal waves and underwater bottom topography in tidal watels at at high radar frequency bands(X-band and C-band),the impact of the ocean surface mixed layer turbulence and the significance of strat-ified oceanic model on SAR remote sensing of internal solitary waves are proposed.In the north of the South China Sea by utilizing seme observed data of background field the nonlinearity coefficient,the dispersion coefficient,the horizontal variability coefficient and the phase speed in the generalized K-dV equation are determined approximately.Through simulations of internal tide transfor-mation the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the vertical displacement and horizontal velocity of intereal wave field are obtained.The simulation results indicate that the maximum amplitudes of internal solitary waves occur at depth 35 m,but the maximum current speeds take place at depth 20 m in this area of the sea(about 20°30'N,114°E)in August.It was noticed that considering the effects of flood current and ebb current respectively is appropriate to investigate influence of the background shear flow on coefficients of the K-dV equation.The obtained results provide the possibility for the simulation of SAR signatures of inter-nal solitary waves under considering the impact of ocean surface mixed layer turbulence in the companion paper.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

An approximated method for the solution of elliptic problems in thin domains: Application to nonlinear internal waves

Realistic numerical simulations of nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) have been hampered by the need to use computationally expensive nonhydrostatic models. In this paper, we show that the solution to the elliptic problem arising from the incompressibility condition can be successfully approximated by a few terms (three at most) of an expansion in powers of the ratio (horizontal grid spacing)/(total depth). For an n dimensional problem, each term in the expansion is the sum of a function that satisfies a one-dimensional second-order ODE in the vertical direction plus, depending on the surface boundary condition, the solution to an n-1 dimension elliptic problem, an evident saving over having to solve the original n-dimensional elliptic problem. This approximation provides the physically correct amount of dispersion necessary to counteract the nonlinear steepening tendency of NLIWs. Experiments with different types of NLIWs validate the approach. Unlike other methods, no ad hoc artificial dispersion needs to be introduced.     

利用卫星云图资料制作热带气旋预报路径的一种算法

根据台风生成后在云场中移动的环境条件,引入一个环境作用于台风中心的热力梯度力方向,用该热力梯度力方向与当前台风的移动方向相结合,研究台风移动过程的变化规律,寻找一种简易可行的台风路径预报方法．经过多年实践,本文揭示出台风中心未来沿着当前移动方向与环境作用于台风中心的热力方向合成移动的基本规律：当前台风中心移向与前方晴空区中轴线相交时,台风沿着当前移向前进到与阻挡轴线相交点相距4个纬距的位置时便发生偏转,逐渐与阻挡轴线走向趋于一致;若当前台风中心距相交点的距离小于或等于4个纬距时,则从当前位置发生偏转．文中利用以上规律研制出台风移向变化方程和移动轨迹方程．