Protecting Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS) by Industrial Integration Development (IID): Practices from China

With Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) increasing in number around the world, their conservation has become a new international research theme. From the perspective of combining theoretical analyses and practical case applications, this study examines the Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS) conservation pathways and operation mechanisms through industrial integration development (IID). First, the theoretical framework of IID in IAHS sites was constructed according to the requirements of IAHS conservation, which include analyses of the connotation and basic principles of IID, the necessity of IID for IAHS sites, the resource conditions, and the IID pathways. And then based on the theoretical framework, the IID of Longji Terraces in Guangxi, Honghe Hani Rice Terraces System in Yunnan (HHRTS), Aohan Dryland Farming System in Inner Mongolia (ADFS), and Huzhou Mulberry-dyke & Fish-pond System (HMFS) in Zhejiang are analyzed systematically. The main finding is that IID is an effective pathway for IAHS conservation. However, the IID in IAHS sites must stress the ecological and cultural values of the resources; IID should be based on local resource advantages; and IID should attach importance to the combination of different policies and coordination between different stakeholders.     

SWAN2.0系统的设计与实现

强对流天气短时临近预报系统（Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting,SWAN）是面向短时临近监测、分析、预报、预警制作等功能为一体的业务平台。SWAN2.0基于MICAPS4（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统）二次开发框架,采用C/S架构,服务器部署在省级,负责收集数据,运算SWAN产品;客户端部署在气象台站,实现具体的预报业务,并形成算法二次开发接口。SWAN2.0新增了三维变分风场反演、基于分雨团技术的雷达降水估测、冰雹识别等方法,实现了算法管理、产品生成、分析处理、资料检索显示、实时监控报警、预警产品制作等功能。SWAN2.0业务系统已在全国试用,在强对流天气监测、分析和短时临近预报预警中发挥了重要作用。     

一次局地大暴雨的地面观测资料同化预报试验研究

基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其3DVAR（3-Dimentional Variational）资料同化系统,采用36 km、12 km 、4 km三层嵌套网格进行逐3 h资料同化和快速更新循环预报,对2011年5月8日鲁中一次局地大暴雨过程进行了资料同化敏感性试验。试验结果表明,地面观测资料同化和快速更新循环对本次降水的预报起到了关键性作用。在快速更新循环预报时不同化地面观测资料,或同化全部观测资料进行冷启动预报,模式均不能预报出山东的降水。同化地面观测资料后,显著改进了模式降水落区预报。地面观测资料同化可以影响到700 hPa高度以上温压湿风要素的变化,从而改变了大气初始场的温湿结构,导致模式预报的700 hPa附近高空大气湿度和热力不稳定增强,700 hPa以下低层风场更强,850 hPa鲁中以南风速较无观测资料同化的偏强2～4 m·s-1,低层风场的动力作用触发高空的不稳定大气,降水出现在山东。     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

贵阳木本植物始花期对温度变化的敏感度

植物物候期的温度敏感度反映了植物是怎样及在何种程度上响应气候变化,研究不同物种物候期的温度敏感度有利于鉴别易受气候变化影响的物种。现有关于始花期的温度敏感度研究主要集中在温带地区,在亚热带地区研究仍较少。本文以位于亚热带的贵阳为研究区,利用1980-2014年60种典型木本植物的始花期观测资料,分析了该地区植物始花期变化趋势及对气温变化的敏感度,评估了样本量大小对敏感度估计稳定性的影响。结果表明：①研究时段内贵阳发生了明显的气候变化,年平均气温显著升高,其中春、秋季的增温比夏、冬季显著。②绝大多数植物(88.3%)的始花期在研究时段内呈提前趋势,其中显著提前的占物种总数的21.7%(P<0.05);60种植物始花期总体的提前趋势为2.89 d/10 a。③绝大多数(88.3%)植物始花期的年际变化与最优时段内平均气温呈显著负相关(P<0.05),所有植物始花期的总体敏感度为-5.75 d/℃。④样本量大小对温度敏感度估计的稳定性有显著影响,15年长序列能将敏感度估计结果的波动范围以99%的概率控制在2 d/℃之内。     

南北盘江森林生态系统水源涵养功能评价

森林生态系统水源涵养功能是植被层、枯枝落叶层和土壤层对降雨进行再分配的复杂过程。运用综合蓄水能力法,基于森林资源二类调查数据,估算了贵州省南北盘江流域不同类型森林生态系统的林冠层截留降水量、枯落物持水量和土壤蓄水量,分析了流域尺度森林生态系统的水源涵养能力及其时空变化。结果表明：① 南北盘江流域森林涵养水源总量约6.13×10⁸m³,单位面积水源涵养量629.85 t/hm²,森林水源涵养能力空间分布呈现东高西低的趋势;② 不同类型森林来说,阔叶林和灌木林对区域水源涵养总量的贡献率最大,而混交林的单位面积水源涵养量最高;③ 不同林龄比较,幼龄林对区域水源涵养贡献率最高,达45.95%,但其单位面积水源涵养能力最差,过熟林的单位面积水源涵养能力最高;④ 就坡位而言,平地和中坡森林对区域水源涵养总量的贡献率最大,山谷森林单位面积水源涵养能力最高,山脊森林单位面积涵养水源能力最低;⑤ 近35 a来,随着生态工程的实施,森林生态系统水源涵养总能力以1 447.89×10⁴m³/a速度持续提升,单位面积水源涵养量以每年5.33 t/hm²的速度稳步提高。     

国家地缘脆弱性探索——缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示

当今国际地缘政治经济格局正处于剧烈变动中,并对缅甸地缘环境的复杂性及地缘脆弱性产生深刻影响。缅甸所在的大湄公河次区域日益成为世界重要地缘政治力量博弈前沿和焦点。系统研究缅甸国家地缘脆弱性,对于中国西部大开发、“一带一路”及周边地缘环境建设具有重要战略意义。本文基于地缘政治及人地关系地域系统等学科理论,规范分析与实证分析相结合,从暴露性、敏感性和适应性等方面构建了国家地缘脆弱性研究框架,系统探索了缅甸典型的国家地缘脆弱性特征。资源环境禀赋、内部地域结构等引致的经济政治体系、社会文化传承等方面是缅甸脆弱性的本底特征,而缅甸与中国的地缘关系及决策则从根本上影响其地缘战略位态。缅甸地缘政治脆弱性及其与中国的相互依赖使之成为西方“U型封堵大陆战略”的薄弱点和今后角逐的着力点,也是中国解围破局重要的地缘战略出口。近期中国应通过“一带一路”孟中印缅经济走廊建设,大力加强中缅之间政治、经济、文化等各方面友好关系。     

时空序列预测误差的敏感性试验分析

利用33模Lorenz系统得到的"理想"混沌时空序列,作为时空混沌序列"发生器".通过状态空间重构,建立"场时间序列"局域近似预测模型,对资料空间分辨率,资料的长度、噪音,以及模型的参数选取等因素进行敏感性试验分析,了解时空混沌序列预测中误差产生和增长的一些影响因素.得到以下初步结论:对于理想混沌时空序列(33模Lorenz系统)而言,与系统相适应的资料空间分辨率和较长的资料长度都将会提高预测精度;可预报时效与资料长度之间近似服从指数关系.另外,在建立预测模型时,适当的邻近点数目,以及采用二阶映射关系和迭代法都可以有效地改善预测精度.对于加入噪音的混沌时间序列,通过"场时间序列"的局域近似方法和4阶自回归方法的预测试验的对比表明,前者显示了更强的抗"干扰"能力.以上结论可以有分析地应用于短期气候预测中.     

多源三维模型融合技术在三调城镇村内部细化调查中的应用研究

城镇村内部土地利用细化调查是第三次全国土调查中的重要组成部分,全面细化和完善的城镇村庄内部土地利用调查成果,有助于掌握翔实准确的全国国土利用现状和自然资源变化情况。本文基于多源三维模型融合技术,生成高精度高空地面、室内室外一体化三维模型,将其应用于城镇村内部土地利用细化调查工作中,修正城镇村内部土地利用现状图斑边界和地类属性等内容,最终形成准确的城镇村内部土地利用现状成果。利用融合后的三维模型上开展城镇村内部土地利用细化调查是一种有效的调查模式,可为三调高精度高效率调查工作提供技术支撑。