灰色关联度方法在大风和暴雨灾害损失评估中的应用

针对近20年北京地区发生的大风和暴雨灾害,应用灰色关联度方法,计算北京地区近20年的19个大风和暴雨灾例的灾情评估指标与关联度,进行损失评估和比较。结果表明,该方法对灾情等级划分和灾情损失排序是合理的,比较符合实际对灾情的评价,能够对不同气象灾害和同一级别的气象灾害灾情差异尺度做比较,是能够应用于实际工作中的一种科学方法。     

Prevalence and distribution of fecal indicator organisms in South Florida beach sand and preliminary assessment of health effects associated with beach sand exposure

Fecal indicator levels in nearshore waters of South Florida are routinely monitored to assess microbial contamination at recreational beaches. However, samples of sand from the surf zone and upper beach are not monitored which is surprising since sand may accumulate and harbor fecal-derived organisms. This study examined the prevalence of fecal indicator organisms in tidally-affected beach sand and in upper beach sand and compared these counts to levels in the water. Since indicator organisms were statistically elevated in sand relative to water, the study also considered the potential health risks associated with beach use and exposure to sand. Fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, enterococci, somatic coliphages, and F(+)-specific coliphages were enumerated from sand and water at three South Florida beaches (Ft. Lauderdale Beach, Hollywood Beach, and Hobie Beach) over a 2-year period. Bacteria were consistently more concentrated in 100g samples of beach sand (2-23 fold in wet sand and 30-460 fold in dry sand) compared to 100ml samples of water. Somatic coliphages were commonly recovered from both sand and water while F(+)-specific coliphages were less commonly detected. Seeding experiments revealed that a single specimen of gull feces significantly influenced enterococci levels in some 3.1m(2) of beach sand. Examination of beach sand on a micro-spatial scale demonstrated that the variation in enterococci density over short distances was considerable. Results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the physical and chemical parameters monitored in this study could only minimally account for the variation observed in indicator densities. A pilot epidemiological study was conducted to examine whether the length of exposure to beach water and sand could be correlated with health risk. Logistic regression analysis results provided preliminary evidence that time spent in the wet sand and time spent in the water were associated with a dose-dependent increase in gastrointestinal illness.     

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

我国抗震防灾研究的发展及其作用

我国是一个地震灾害严重的国家之一。为抵御地震对人民生命财产和国家经济的破坏,使得抗震防灾研究显得尤为必要。本文主要从工程角度,简要介绍了我国抗震防灾研究的历史、现状、前沿问题及未来发展,并且阐述了抗震防灾研究在我国社会主义经济建设中的重要性。     

贵州开阳磷矿矿区地质灾害分析

针对矿山深部开采和工程地质灾害的重点危险因素和隐患,指出采用高新技术手段对矿山深部开采和工程地质灾害事故隐患实施监控预警,提高矿山的本质安全程度和保障能力,是矿山控制和消除安全隐患并减轻灾害损失,提高企业市场竞争力的关键。     

中原油田高压注水诱发的油水井套管损坏原因分析

中原油田高压注水开发35年,套管损坏严重,严重的影响了油田的开发效果。据研究,油田水井套管损坏主要有错断、变形及破漏等三类,平面上主要分布在断层发育区、高地层水矿化度区、泥岩层和盐膏层发育区,剖面上主要分布在盐膏层段和主力生产井段。提出断层活动、地应力非均质演化、盐岩蠕变、油田开发历程和开采方式及油气流场、化学场演化是中原油田套损的主要控制因素,建立油田油藏油井多参数动态模式,优选与油藏模式匹配的开采方式及增产措施,改造套管动力学环境和化学环境将能防治套损地质灾害的发生。     

煤岩体电荷检测在动力灾害预测中的应用

文章为煤岩动力灾害的预测提供新的方法,针对大安上煤矿用岩体电荷辐射测试仪进行现场实验测试,得出:(1)大安山矿电荷感应幅值在300Pc以下,煤岩体比较稳定;(2)电荷感应幅值呈现出与周期来压一致的周期性变化;(3)电荷感应幅值最大处一般均在工作面前方10～16m,这与采掘工作面前方煤岩层的集中应力向煤体深部传播一致;(4)在测期间一直处于稳定状态,而测得的电荷感应幅值也较小,说明和实际比较符合。还简要介绍安装工艺。得出岩体电荷检测能对动力现象作出预测。     

废弃矿山生态恢复工程地质灾害危险性评估方法探讨

废弃矿山一般地处地质环境较复杂的山区,人类工程活动强烈,加之废弃矿山植被恢复工程的特殊性,与常规建设工程的地质灾害危险性评估相比,其工作方法和内容等都具有明显的区别。本文以北京市房山区霞云岭乡废弃矿山地质灾害危险性评估为实例,着重探讨了此项评估技术的基本思路、方法和技术手段等内容,以期为类似工程地质灾害危险性评估工作提供参考。     

灵宝大湖滑坡形成机制分析及防治对策研究

论述了大湖滑坡发生和发展的地质环境背景,分析了大湖滑坡灾害发育现状及形成机制,并对其发展趋势、危害程度进行了预测;提出大湖滑坡灾害的防治,要以防为主,避让与治理相结合,工程措施与非工程措施相结合,要细致详细的防灾预案,采取必要饿防滑支挡、排水和生物等工程措施;加强对滑坡区地质环境防治管理。     

GS-1型滑坡光纤多参数监测系统的研究

开发一种自动化地质灾害滑坡光纤多参数监测系统,采用基于光纤光栅的反射中心波长随光纤光栅所受的应变或温度的改变产生移动,其波长移动量的多少直接反映应变或温度变化大小的工作原理。利用光纤光栅封装结构的变化,实现应变、应力、压力、温度、位移、振动等多种参量的测试;对多个光纤光栅的中心波长进行排布上的设计,则实现多点的准分布式测量,推动地质灾害监测技术的进步。