中国蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展途径

蓄滞洪区的行蓄洪启用频率和蓄水方式决定着洪水管理与可持续发展途径,影响流域经济社会的可持续发展.根据各大流域蓄滞洪区的设计启用频率,设置了未来35年内蓄滞洪区发展的3种情景:维持现状、部分水库化和部分湿地化,构建了涵盖防洪、社会经济和生态发展等因子的途径选择指标体系,运用数据包络分析法(DEA),识别了不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展的最优途径.结果表明:① 不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区在建成35年内,部分湿地化情景是中国70%蓄滞洪区的最优发展途径.② 设计启用频率50年一遇是蓄滞洪区发展途径选择的边界值;当等于或低于50年一遇时,部分湿地化是其最优途径;当高于50年一遇时,维持其现状是最优途径.     

某中学建设项目地质灾害危险性评估

根据野外调查、区域地质、环境地质、水文工程地质等资料,对某中学建设项目地质灾害危险性进行现状评估、预测评估和综合性评估,并对评估区进行分区。对扩建场地适宜性进行评价,提出地质灾害防治措施,为该工程建设用地规划和开展地质灾害防治工作提供依据。     

The Linear Coregionalization Model and the Product–Sum Space–Time Variogram

The product covariance model, the product–sum covariance model, and the integrated product and integrated product–sum models have the advantage of being easily fitted by the use of marginal variograms. These models and the use of the marginals are described in a series of papers by De Iaco, Myers, and Posa. Such models allow not only estimating values at nondata locations but also prediction in future times, hence, they are useful for analyzing air pollution data, meteorological data, or ground water data. These three kinds of data are nearly always multivariate and because the processes determining the deposition or dynamics will affect all variates, a multivariate approach is desirable. It is shown that the use of marginal variograms for space–time modeling can be extended to the multivariate case and in particular to the use of the Linear Coregionalization Model (LCM) for cokriging in space–time. An application to an environmental data set is given.     

Rock fall hazard control along a section of railway based on quantified risk

Rock falls represent a large percentage of landslide-related hazards reported by Canadian railways in mountainous terrain. A 54.7?km-long section of railway through the Canadian Cordillera is examined that experiences, on average, 18 rock falls each year. An approach for rock fall hazard management is developed based on quantified risk. The approach focuses on defining railway operation procedures (freight train operations and track maintenance) that comply with quantified risks. Weather-based criteria that define periods when rock falls are more likely to occur along the study area are examined. These criteria are used herein to reduce exposure to rock falls and reduce their consequences. Several freight train operation strategies are proposed that comply with a tolerable level of risk adopted in this study for illustrative purposes. The approach provides a simple, flexible and practical strategy for railway operations that can be regularly adopted by the operators, and that is based on a more comprehensive assessment of quantified risk.     

重庆嘉陵江干流饮用水水源地水质分析与健康风险评价

利用WQI模型和水环境健康风险评价模型对20092011年嘉陵江干流重庆段6个饮用水水源地进行评价,并将影响这两种方法的主要因素进行分析比较。结果表明,6个水源地水质总体较好且城郊差异不大,但健康风险等级普遍偏高,城区明显高于郊区;各污染物都可能影响到WQI值,而砷、镉尤其是六价铬等化学致癌物是影响总健康危害风险的主要因素。两种模型侧重点不同,综合运用将更有助于客观全面评价水体质量和对人体健康的影响。     

地质灾害危险性评估及其半定量分析法在罗家寨气田内部集输工程中的应用

罗家寨气田内部集输工程地质灾害危险性评估项目属于一级评估项目，我们在该项目中运用了GPS、遥感数字化正射影像地图等新技术、新方法，同时采用了灾损率（Zs）法、风险区划法半定量的综合评估方法，通过系统的整理第一手资料和综合分析，对本地区地质灾害危险性进行现状评估、预测评估和综合评估，评价工程建设用地适宜性并提出地质灾害的防治措施建议。     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

干旱灾害和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题

首先阐述了自然灾害中干旱灾害的严重性和复杂性；接着从西北干旱气候的时空分布特征、形成原因、干旱气候的比较以及监测和预测等方面回顾了近20年来我国西北干旱气候研究的进展；最后提出了西北干旱气候待研究的问题。     

岩溶隧道顶板安全厚度的理论探讨与工程应用

在岩溶区隧道施工中,隧道顶部既有较大尺度溶洞引起的隧道顶板跨塌是威胁隧道施工的主要问题之一。从隧道施工引起的既有溶洞与隧道间岩层的受力,岩层力学性质和围岩水文地质条件变化出发,分析了隧道施工中影响岩层稳定的主要因素,在此基础上将隧道顶部既有较大尺度溶洞引起的隧道施工期顶板的破坏问题归结为两端简支或4边固支薄层岩板的失稳问题,建立了相应的力学分析模型。采用弹性板理论,对不同力学模型的受力状态进行分析,推导了建立在岩体抗拉和抗剪强度准则基础上的岩溶隧道顶板岩层最小安全厚度计算公式。采用该公式对武都水库导流洞既有溶洞影响下典型洞段隧道顶板稳定性进行分析,跟踪施工调查的顶板稳定情况性态验证了公式的适用性。     

新疆喀什西部新一代天气雷达产品的冰雹预警指标研究

2010年以来喀什地区冰雹频繁,严重危害当地农业生产. 通过整理分析2009-2012年喀什新一代天气雷达监测资料,结合我国中东部地区基于雷达监测的冰雹预警指标,经过对喀什西部的18次冰雹天气过程中新一代天气雷达监测预警指标的分析,归纳出了喀什西部新一代雷达产品的冰雹预警指标：（1）组合反射率≥50 dBz;（2）回波顶高≥9 km;（3）云体垂直液态水含量≥20 kg·m^-2. 根据该预警指标对喀什西部2011-2012年冰雹过程进行回报预警,准确率达到84.6%. 以有详细降雹时间记录的14次冰雹过程为例,分析喀什西部基于雷达监测产品的冰雹预警时效,14次个例中冰雹预警时效平均为27 min. 选取2012年5月13日、5月23日和2013年6月18日3次强冰雹过程个例,分析冰雹出现前后喀什新一代天气雷达的连续监测资料表明：3次过程中降雹开始时间对应雷达监测值达到最大（高）值时刻;组合反射率与回波顶高首先达到预警指标,垂直液态含水量达到预警指标的时间滞后11~19 min;3项雷达产品均达到冰雹预警指标的时间比实际发布冰雹预警时间早7~17 min,喀什西部冰雹预警时效潜力可以增加到30 min以上. 在喀什西部,应用新一代天气雷达监测产品开展冰雹实时预警业务是可行的,对提高当地冰雹灾害防御能力提供了有力的技术支持.