Estimation of instantaneous peak flows from maximum mean daily flows using the HBV hydrological model

The record length and quality of instantaneous peak flows (IPFs) have a great influence on flood design, but these high resolution flow data are not always available. The primary aim of this study is to compare different strategies to derive frequency distributions of IPFs using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrologic model. The model is operated on a daily and an hourly time step for 18 catchments in the Aller‐Leine basin, Germany. Subsequently, general extreme value (GEV) distributions are fitted to the simulated annual series of daily and hourly extreme flows. The resulting maximum mean daily flow (MDF) quantiles from daily simulations are transferred into IPF quantiles using a multiple regression model, which enables a direct comparison with the simulated hourly quantiles. As long climate records with a high temporal resolution are not available, the hourly simulations require a disaggregation of the daily rainfall. Additionally, two calibrations strategies are applied: (1) a calibration on flow statistics; (2) a calibration on hydrographs. The results show that: (1) the multiple regression model is capable of predicting IPFs with the simulated MDFs; (2) both daily simulations with post‐correction of flows and hourly simulations with pre‐processing of precipitation enable a reasonable estimation of IPFs; (3) the best results are achieved using disaggregated rainfall for hourly modelling with calibration on flow statistics; and (4) if the IPF observations are not sufficient for model calibration on flow statistics, the transfer of MDFs via multiple regressions is a good alternative for estimating IPFs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

The instantaneous total mortality rate(Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis,abundance and catch forecast,and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort(CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method,the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time,but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant,and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z,and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates(the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore,the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them,but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod(G adus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997,and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.     

实时水深模型的一种构建方法

水深是表达海洋深度变化的基础数据,实时水深是舰船航行和海岸带军事行动的重要影响因子。本文从实用角度出发,采用海图水深作为静态水深,基于余水位订正的预报水位作为动态水位,提出了一种顾及实时水深区域变化特征的实时水深模型。实验表明,该模型实现了实时水深的快速求取,一定程度上可以满足航海和军事应用需求。     

用瞬态瑞雷波反演横波速度评价高速公路压碾效果

在高速公路质量检测中 ,路堤土压实度是衡量土方路基重要的质量指标 ,提出了提高压实度计算精度的处理流程 ,应用τ-p变换提取面波 ,获取高信噪比的频散曲线 ,采用瞬态面波反演横波速度 ,提高横波速度计算精度 ,进而计算压实度。用上述方法对商开高速公路振冲压碾效果进行了无损检测 ,其结果与取样分析及开挖结果一致     

Instantaneous spectrum analysis and its application in estimation of earthquake tendency

In this paper, first discussing briefly the instantaneous spectrum theory. Then, the instantnaeous spectra and Fourier spectra of three seismic sequences are calculated, and comparing them to explain the superior characteristics of instantaneous spectrum. Finally, the earthquake tendency of North China is estimated by using the instantaneous spectrum theory. The results show that not only the occurrence time of the coming large earthquake, but also its magnitude instantaneous can be estimated by using instantaneous spectrum of the seismic sequence. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa seismologica Sinica,15, 68–75, 1993.     

The role of topography in controlling throughflow generation: A discussion

The distributions of specific catchment area and specific dispersal area values over the hillside studied by Anderson and Burt (1978) relate much more closely to the observed distributions of soil water matric potential than do the occurrences of contour concavity on which the authors rely. Highest potential always occurred in the zone of large specific catchment area except immediately after rainfall, when it occurred in the zone of small dispersal area. Isolines of low potential persistently conformed to those of specific dispersal area.     

探地雷达复信号分析的几点讨论

采用H ilbert变换的复信号分析方法,求取相位时对噪声很敏感,所以分析前的滤波处理是非常重要的,常用的反正切求取相位角方法,不利于求取包含真实反射信息的相位θ(t)。针对以上两个问题,采用了与探地雷达垂向分辨能力相关的尺度,对原始数据进行了滤波操作。滤波后的数据保证了与原始数据相同的分辨能力,有效地压制了干扰信号。同时,具有良好的数学性质,为复信号分析提供了有利的条件。利用反余弦计算相角,方便了程序设计,且求得的相角易于变换为真实相角(ω0t θ(t)),为提取真正与反射信息相关的相位θ(t)提供了便利。应用优化方法求解瞬时相位、瞬时频率等信息,将真正与反射信息相关的θ(t)与ω0t分离,提高了分辨能力,同时还可得到ω0随时间变化的曲线,为分析探地雷达的频散现象提供了依据。     

基于振幅和瞬时频率的震相自动识别方法

为了充分反映地震信号振幅增大和频率改变的特征,发展了一种以振幅和瞬时频率比乘积为特征参量的震相自动识别方法。谐波信号和有限实际地震记录的应用表明,本方法具有较高的识别精度。     

从宽带太阳直接辐射小时或日曝辐量反演气溶胶光学厚度研究

从宽带的太阳直接辐射1天或1小时累计量(曝辐量)气象观测资料反演气溶胶光学厚度的一个有效方法是很有用的.作者把太阳曝辐量与"等效"的瞬时太阳直接辐射关联起来,建立了一个与曝辐量"等效"的瞬时太阳直接辐射的模式;应用该模式和一个"等效"波长模式,发展了一个从太阳直接曝辐量反演气溶胶光学厚度的方法.作者还从试验上比较分析了由某时刻的宽带太阳直接辐射、每小时或1天的太阳直接辐射曝辐量反演得到的气溶胶光学厚度以及由太阳光度计探测的气溶胶光学厚度.试验结果表明,由日太阳直接辐射曝辐量反演得到的气溶胶光学厚度可理解为辐射加权的日平均光学厚度.