改进的地震模型初值射线追踪方法

初值射线追踪方法是现代射线追踪方法中的一个很重要的理论,它克服了两点法射线追踪方法耗时的计算效率问题。以程函方程为基础,对初值射线追踪方法进行改进,即利用平方慢度来替换模型中的速度参数,使得程函方程产生解析解,从而进一步导出当射线遇到界面时的反射和透射慢度向量的计算表达式,以及反射、透射系数的函数表达式。通过对简单的两层界面向斜模型及复杂的多层盐丘模型的射线追踪,表明该初值射线追踪方法的改进相比于以往的龙格库塔离散数值解法,不但使射线追踪效率得到了大幅度提高（10倍左右）,且也扩大了射线法使用范围。     

Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Predictions due to Uncertainty in Initial Conditions

Focusing on the role of initial condition uncertainty,we use WRF initial perturbation ensemble forecasts to investigate the uncertainty in intensity forecasts of Tropical Cyclone(TC)Rammasun(1409),which is the strongest TC to have made landfall in China during the past 50 years.Forecast results indicate that initial condition uncertainty leads to TC forecast uncertainty,particularly for TC intensity.This uncertainty increases with forecast time,with a more rapid and significant increase after 24 h.The predicted TC develops slowly before 24 h,and at this stage the TC in the member forecasting the strongest final TC is not the strongest among all members.However,after 24 h,the TC in this member strengthens much more than that the TC in other members.The variations in convective instability,precipitation,surface upward heat flux,and surface upward water vapor flux show similar characteristics to the variation in TC intensity,and there is a strong correlation between TC intensity and both the surface upward heat flux and the surface upward water vapor flux.The initial condition differences that result in the maximum intensity difference are smaller than the errors in the analysis system.Differences in initial humidity,and to a lesser extent initial temperature differences,at the surface and at lower heights are the key factors leading to differences in the forecasted TC intensity.These differences in initial humidity and temperature relate to both the overall values and distribution of these parameters.     

GRAPES全球/区域集合预报系统10年发展回顾及展望

较系统地概述了中国气象局全球/区域集合预报系统及描述模式初值和模式自身不确定性的集合预报扰动技术发展历程,回顾了GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation Pr Ediction System)全球集合预报的奇异向量初值扰动方法、GRAPES区域集合预报的集合变换卡尔曼滤波初值扰动方法和多尺度混合初值扰动方法、GRAPES全球/区域集合预报模式不确定性的随机物理过程倾向项扰动方法和动能后向散射随机补偿方法等研究成果,介绍了GRAPES全球/区域集合预报业务系统构建参数设置和预报性能,最后分析了GRAPES全球/区域集合预报中存在的问题,展望了未来发展方向。     

Using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Model to Understand the Different Responses of Three Woody Plants to Land Use in China

In this study, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to initial perturbation (CNOP-I) was employed to investigate the maximum variations in plant amount for three main woody plants (a temperate broadleaved evergreen, a temperate broadleaved summergreen, and a boreal needleleaved evergreen) in China. The investigation was conducted within a certain range of land use intensity using a state-of-the-art Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM). CNOP-I represents a class of deforestation and can be considered a type of land use with respect to the initial perturbation. When deforestation denoted by the CNOP-I has the same intensity for all three plants, the variation in plant amount of the boreal needleleaved evergreen in northern China is greater than the variation in plant amount of both the temperate broadleaved evergreen and temperate broadleaved summergreen in southern China. As deforestation intensity increases, the plant amount variation in the three woody plant functional types carbon changes, in a nonlinear fashion. The impact of land use on plant functional types is minor because the interaction between climate condition and land use is not considered in the LPJ model. Finally, the different impacts of deforestation on net primary production of the three plant functional types were analyzed by modeling gross primary production and autotrophic respiration. Our results suggest that the CNOP-I approach is a useful tool for exploring the nonlinear and different responses of terrestrial ecosystems to land use.     

一种适用于长弧段的初轨计算方法

根据单位矢量法测轨原理，在人造卫星初轨计算的单位矢量法基础上，给出了一种适用于长弧段的初轨计算方法．该方法既适用于长弧段，也适用于短弧段；适用于各种不同类型的观测资料和任意偏心率、任意轨道倾角的人造地球卫星；有利于提高初轨测定精度；并改善整个计算收敛性．特别需要指出的是，该方法与有摄初轨计算的单位矢量法相结合，为单位矢量法从初轨计算推广到轨道改进打下了坚实的基础．     

Contemporary kinematics of the Upper Rhine Graben: A 3D finite element approach

The Upper Rhine Graben (URG), a Cenozoic intra-plate rift situated in the Alpine foreland, is presently characterised by relative slow tectonic deformation and low to medium seismicity. Concurrently, it is a region with a significant amount of ongoing subsidence in two recent depocentres (0.1 to 0.2 mm/a geological, 1 mm/a geodetical rate). In this paper, the recent kinematic behaviour of the URG is simulated using a 3D finite element model, containing three lithospheric layers (upper mantle, lower crust and upper crust) with different rheological properties. First order fault structures (e.g. border faults) are implemented as frictional contact surfaces within the upper crustal layer. The stresses generated by applying lateral displacements over a time period of 10 ka are insufficient to obtain a match between predicted and observed stress magnitudes. Therefore, a technique of “combined pre-stressing” has been developed to avoid unrealistic deformation and unrealistic stress magnitudes within the model. The stress magnitudes and stress directions predicted are calibrated against in-situ stress measurements and stress indicator data. For benchmarking of the modelling results, the vertical surface displacements predicted are compared to surface uplift derived from geological and geomorphological data. Furthermore, predicted fault slip rates are compared to available geological and geodetical data. Parameters derived from the calculated stress tensor, such as fracture potential and the regime stress ratio are also analysed in order to describe the possible kinematic behaviour of the URG. The modelling results suggest that the URG is currently being reactivated as a sinistral strike–slip system with the central segment of the URG forming a restraining bend and the two recent depocentres situated in releasing bend settings. The modelling results suggest that both sinistral shearing and mantle uplift are active mechanisms driving the recent kinematics of the URG and that the recent subsidence within the two depocentres is re-enforced by ongoing mantle uplift additionally.     

Numerical simulation of the fracture process in cutting heterogeneous brittle material

The process of cutting homogeneous soft material has been investigated extensively. However, there are not so many studies on cutting heterogeneous brittle material. In this paper, R‐T^2D (Rock and Tool interaction), based on the rock failure process analysis model, is developed to simulate the fracture process in cutting heterogeneous brittle material. The simulated results reproduce the process involved in the fragmentation of rock or rock‐like material under mechanical tools: the build‐up of the stress field, the formation of the crushed zone, surface chipping, and the formation of the crater and subsurface cracks. Due to the inclusion of heterogeneity in the model, some new features in cutting brittle material are revealed. Firstly, macroscopic cracks sprout at the two edges of the cutter in a tensile mode. Then with the tensile cracks releasing the confining pressure, the rock in the initially high confining pressure zone is compressed into failure and the crushed zone gradually comes into being. The cracked zone near the crushed zone is always available, which makes the boundary of the crushed zone vague. Some cracks propagate to form chipping cracks and some dip into the rock to form subsurface cracks. The chipping cracks are mainly driven to propagate in a tensile mode or a mixed tensile and shear mode, following curvilinear paths, and finally intersect with the free surface to form chips. According to the simulated results, some qualitative and quantitative analyses are performed. It is found that the back rake angle of the cutter has an important effect on the cutting efficiency. Although the quantitative analysis needs more research work, it is not difficult to see the promise that the numerical method holds. It can be utilized to improve our understanding of tool–rock interaction and rock failure mechanisms under the action of mechanical tools, which, in turn, will be useful in assisting the design of fragmentation equipment and fragmentation operations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.