两种初始场MM5模式预报效果对比评估

为了解本地MM5模式的预报性能,根据其预报结果,检验了基于NCEP和T213两种初始场MM5模式在河北以及京津地区2007年8月至2008年1月的降水、日极值温度和相对湿度的预报效果。结果表明,MM5晴雨（雪）预报的准确率较高,具有较好的参考价值,而对于降水的分级预报,随着预报时效的延长和降水强度的增加,其可用性逐渐降低,但整体来看基于NCEP初始场的预报均比T213初始场预报效果明显;在日极值温度预报中,最低温度效果优于最高温度,T213初始场的预报对日最高温度预报的准确率较高,NCEP初始场的预报则在日最低温度预报中略胜一筹;对08：00相对湿度的预报,两者的预报效果基本相同,绝对误差都在15％左右。     

基于动力降尺度的区域集合预报初值扰动构建方法研究

利用全球集合预报系统资料(Global Ensemble Forecast System,GEFS),基于WRF中尺度模式构建了区域集合预报系统,区域集合初值的构建采用两种方案,一种是GEFS全球集合预报初值场直接动力降尺度(称为DOWN集合),另一种是提取GEFS全球集合降尺度后的扰动场,并叠加到区域数值预报系统(北京快速更新循环数值预报系统:Beijing Rapid Update Cycle System,BJ-RUC)分析场上构建集合初值场(称为D-RUC集合)。进行了批量试验,通过对比发现D-RUC集合的中小尺度扰动增长优于DOWN集合,而大尺度扰动分量的增长两者相当,说明与高分辨率分析场叠加可以促进动力降尺度扰动的中小尺度扰动分量的增长。集合预报扰动准确性检验结果显示,短预报时效内DOWN集合扰动明显低估了预报误差,在预报误差较大的位置扰动较小,而D-RUC集合能够更好地识别预报场中哪些位置预报误差较大,而哪些位置预报误差较小。集合预报检验结果表明,D-RUC方法能显著改善短时效预报效果,集合离散度有所增加、均方根误差有所减少,概率预报评分显示D-RUC集合比DOWN集合在短预报时效占优。降水个例分析结果表明D-RUC方法能显著改善短时效内的降水概率预报效果。     

FY-2G地表温度反演产品改变模式初值对一次台风暴雨模拟的影响

为探讨地表温度初始场在台风暴雨模拟中的重要性,以2015年第13号台风"苏迪罗"为例,分别用FY-2G卫星反演的陆表温度、海表温度产品替换NCEP资料初始场,进行数值模拟试验。对模拟结果进行分量级降水TS评分和预报正确率检验,并对比分析了各试验方案2 m温度场、感热通量和潜热通量场、900 h Pa流场和850 h Pa垂直速度场间的差异。结果表明:使用FY-2G卫星反演的陆、海表温度产品作模式初始场均能不同程度地改善降水模拟效果,但改善程度随时间降低,24 h后其改善作用已较小;陆表温度试验对小雨和中雨量级的预报质量均有提高,而海表温度试验仅提高了小雨量级的预报质量。进一步分析表明,陆表温度试验主要通过改善陆表温度初始场影响感热通量和潜热通量的分布,进而减小台风东北部低层温度正异常,使该区域气旋性环流减弱、垂直速度减小,有效抑制了虚假对流出现,最终达到改善降水预报质量的效果;海表温度试验原理与陆表温度试验类似,但对降水预报质量改善不明显,仅在广东南部沿海地区降水模拟效果较好。     

初始场估计共轭同化方法的精确化

通过例子,说明对偏微分方程模型使用共轭同化方法时,同周期性条件的重要性,提出尽可能精确地使用共轭同化方法于偏微分方程模型的办法及对有些方程不含ｅ↓ｕ／ｅ↓项时,其相应差分方程模型精确共轭同化方法。     

新疆东准噶尔塔克扎勒—麦钦乌拉古缝合线的确定

本文通过构造分析及岩石学、地球化学研究,证实塔克扎勒—麦钦乌拉存在一条蛇绿混杂岩带,表现为在构造变形的砂泥质基质中分布若干个洋脊型和洋岛型的蛇绿岩碎块。该带两侧地壳厚度明显不同,大陆边缘增生方向相反,该带还是一条早古生代的生物群落界线,早石炭世两侧岛弧有较大的纬度差异(20°以上)。因此,塔克扎勒—麦钦乌拉蛇绿混杂岩带是古准噶尔大洋闭合的残骸,代表了西伯利亚板块和塔里木板块碰撞的缝合线构造带。     

Nearby Protoclusters as Laboratories for Understanding Star Formation on Galactic Scales

Detailed studies of nearby cluster-forming molecular clouds can help us understand the physical processes by which most stars form in galaxies. I review recent advances made on this subject. Submillimeter observations of nearby protoclusters suggest that stars are generally built from finite, detached reservoirs of mass inside molecular cloud cores, and point to a cloud fragmentation origin for the IMF. Much progress in this field will come from future large submillimeter instruments such as Herschel and ALMA. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Structural characteristics of the KPR-CBR triple-junction inferred from gravity and magnetic interpretations,Philippine Sea Plate

The intersection of the Kyushu-Palau Ridge (KPR) and the Central Basin Rift (CBR) of the West Philippine Basin (WPB) is a relic of a trench-trench-rift (TTR) type triple-junction, which preserves some pivotal information on the cessation of the seafloor spreading of the WPB, the emplacement and disintegration of the proto-Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) Arc, and the transition from initial rifting to steady-state spreading of the Parece Vela Basin (PVB). However, the structural characteristics of this triple-junction have not been thoroughly understood. In this paper, using the newly acquired multi-beam bathymetric, gravity, and magnetic data obtained by the Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology, China Geological Survey, the authors depict the topographic, gravity, and magnetic characteristics of the triple-junction and adjacent region. Calculations including the upward continuations and total horizontal derivatives of gravity anomaly are also performed to highlight the major structural features and discontinuities. Based on these works, the morphological and structural features and their formation mechanisms are analyzed. The results show that the last episode amagmatic extension along the CBR led to the formation of a deep rift valley, which extends eastward and incised the KPR. The morphological and structural fabrics of the KPR near and to the south of the triple-junction are consistent with those of the western PVB, manifesting as a series of NNE-SSW- and N-S-trending ridges and troughs, which were produced by the extensional faults associated with the initial rifting of the PVB. The superposition of the above two reasons induced the prominent discontinuity of the KPR in deep and shallow crustal structures between 15°N–15°30′N and 13°30′N–14°N. Combined with previous authors’ results, we propose that the stress produced by the early spreading of the PVB transmitted westward and promoted the final stage amagmatic extension of the CBR. The eastward propagation of the CBR destroyed the KPR, of which the magmatism had decayed or ceased at that time. The destruction mechanism of the KPR associated with the rifting of the PVB varies along strike the KPR. Adjacent to the triple-junction, the KPR was destroyed mainly due to the oblique intersection of the PVB rifting center. Whereas south of the triple-junction, the KPR was destroyed by the E-W-directional extensional faulting on its whole width.©2021 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Cenozoic Plate interaction of the Australia and Philippine Sea Plates: “hit-and-run” tectonics

Recent studies in northwest New Guinea have shown the presence of at least two marginal basins of different age, both of which formed in back-arc settings. The older basin opened between the Middle Jurassic and Early Cretaceous, a remnant of which is now preserved as the New Guinea Ophiolite. Its obduction started at 40 Ma and it was finally emplaced on the Australian margin at 30 Ma. The younger basin was active during the Oligocene to Middle Miocene and was obducted in the Early Pliocene. Studies of the western edge of the Philippine Sea also reveal an important deformation of the Philippine arc in the Oligocene, which hitherto has remained unexplained. Using information from these systems, paleomagnetic results, kinematic reconstructions and geochemistry of the supra-subduction ophiolite, we present a plate model to explain the region's Eo–Oligocene development. We suggest that an extensive portion of oceanic crust extended the Australian Plate a considerable distance north of the Australian Craton. As Australia began its steady 7–8 cm/year northward drift in the Early Eocene, this lithosphere was subducted. Thus, the portion of the Philippine Sea Plate carrying the Taiwan–Philippine Arc to its present site may have actually been in contact with the ophiolite now in New Guinea and obduction led to deformation of the Philippine Sea Plate itself. Neogene Plate kinematics transported the deformed belt in contact with the Sunda block in the Late Miocene and Pliocene. This interpretation has implications for the origin for the Philippine Sea Plate and the potential incorporation of continental fragments against its boundaries.     

Analysis on variation characteristics of geothermal response in Liaoning Province

Due to energy shortage and increasing environmental awareness, resources in shallow underground space have been rapidly exploited and utilized. So that studying variation characteristics of geothermal response in gneiss is necessary for effective and rational use of underground heat. Based on field test of thermal response in gneiss under hydrogeological survey project carried out in shallow geothermal energy development zone in Liaoning Province, this thesis analyzes mathematical statistics of geothermal response characteristics in main gneiss of Laoning Province. The initial formation temperature ranges from 10.80℃ to 15.80℃ according to field test. The statistical results show that in the condition of natural water content, the average thermal conductivity of Quaternary loose rocks comes as clay silty silty fine sand medium sand coarse sand gravelly sand. This order is consistent with thermal conductivity characteristics of gneiss obtained in the laboratory. Formation temperature recovery in different strata follows as granite medium sand clay. This order is opposite to the absolute value of temperature recovery curve slope of corresponding lithology, which shows that the stratum with higher temperature recovery rate has lower temperature recovery curve slope.