PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997-1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL*

The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997-1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predictedsuccessfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0.5 at 0-14 lead months.     

地幔流体及其成矿作用

高灵敏度、高精密度、低检出限、多元素同时检测并可提供同位素组成比值信息的等离子体质谱与高空间分辨率的紫外激光采样技术结合 ,可定量地测定单个流体包裹体中常、微量元素含量 ,为成矿流体的研究提供了一个新的研究手段。文中简要地介绍了激光剥蚀电感耦合等离子体质谱 (LA ICP MS)分析仪器的发展 ,结合实验室的研究工作 ,就激光剥蚀池的设计、单个流体包裹体的剥蚀方法、元素的分馏效率、定量校正技术及其在成矿成因物理化学机制研究中的应用等进行评述 ,并阐述单个流体包裹体元素组成的LA ICP MS分析技术存在的局限和发展趋势。     

氢化物发生—原子荧光光谱法测定煤样中的硒

采用氢化物发生原子荧光光谱法测定了煤样中的总Se。煤样选用高压闷罐强酸消解的方法进行处理，所得消解液经6mol/L HCl将Se（Ⅵ）还原为Se（Ⅳ），然后进行测定。标准工作曲线的线性范围为0－400μg/L Se，检测限为0.4μg/L Se。用标准参考物质煤飞灰对方法进行了验证，所得总Se含量与标准值相符，对ω为10^-6级Se的4次测定，RSD≤4.5％。     

高频燃烧—红外碳硫仪测定地质样品中的碳和硫

应用HIR-944B型高频-红外碳硫分析仪,对不同地质样品中碳、硫的测定进行了研究,称样30～60mg,加入0.4g纯铁屑及1.7g钨粒助熔剂,高温燃烧分解试样,红外检测,可定量地质样品中质量为0～O.9mg的硫及质量为0～15mg的碳.用该仪器测定地质标样中碳、硫的结果与标准值符合,碳和硫11次测定的RSD分别是＜2.6%和＜3.0%.     

Trace Elements Analysis of Geological Samples by Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＬａｓｅｒａｂｌａｔｉｏｎｉｎｄｕｃｔｉｖｅｌｙｃｏｕｐｌｅｄｐｌａｓｍａｍａｓｓｓｐｅｃｔｒｏｍｅ ｔｒｙｉｓａｎｉｎｃｒｅａｓｉｎｇｌｙｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｅｄａｎａｌｙｔｉｃａｌｔｅｃｈｎｉｑｕｅｆｏｒｓｏｌｉｄｓａｍｐｌｅａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ.ＬＡ ＩＣＰ ＭＳｏｆｆｅｒｓａｔｔｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｈｉｇｈｓｅｎｓｉｔｉｖｉｔｙ ,ｌｏｗｄｅｔｅｃｔｉｏｎｌｉｍｉｔｓ,ｍｉｎｉｍａｌｓａｍｐｌｅｐｒｅｐａｒａ ｔｉｏｎ ,ｌｅｓｓｏｘｉｄｅｓｉｎｔｅｒｆｅ…     

简单海气耦合的线性和非线性Rossby波

采用忽略Ｒｅｙｌｅｉｇｈ摩擦和Ｎｏｗｔｏｎ冷却的定常，线性大气模式和地转动量近似下的非线性海洋模式。这里包含了大气通过线性风应力影响海洋，海洋通过加热过程影响大气的物理机制。用相平面理论讨论了海气耦合作用对简单耦合线Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波和非线性Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波的影响。     

热带太平洋线性海气耦合系统的主模与ENSO

本文利用包含海洋表面边界层、线性海洋大气动力学以及完整的关于不均匀气候态线性化SST预报方程的热带太平洋海气耦合模式， 在真实的气候背景态和参数域内，研究了海气耦合系统的特征值问题，确定了线性耦合系统主模的特征周期及其稳定性特征，进而揭示了主模和ENSO的关系。结果表明:准两年振荡是线性海气耦合系统中的最不稳定模态，且只有该模态类似于ENSO水平结构。因此，准两年振荡很可能是海气耦合系统固有的最根本性的振荡过程。本文也对准两年振荡的形成与年循环的关系以及它在ENSO时间尺度形成中的作用进行了讨论。     

等离子体发射光谱法分析毒砂单矿物

研究了大孔膦酸树脂对毒砂中主、次和痕量元素的吸附行为及洗脱条件,结合巯基棉和TBP柱分离技术,建立了两个分离流程。在J-A1160型多道直读光谱仪上实现了毒砂单矿物中包括主量元素Fe和As在内的20个元素测定。主量元素As和Fe的相对标准偏差(n为5～10)分别为1.03％和0.9％,其它元素在5％～11％范围。流程经实际试样分析验证,结果与化学法相符。     

用地面伽玛能谱资料估计地层(体)的含铀性和资源量

本文论述用地面伽玛能谱资料估计地层(体)含铀性和资源量方法,并提出富铀富集体、铀源富集体、尤其富铀源富集体是最有利于成矿的结论。     

On the stability of a coupled ocean atmosphere system in the presence of wave-CISK

The stability of a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere system similar to the one studied by Hirst with general ocean thermodynamics is investigated in which the atmospheric heating is determined by sea surface temperature anomalies as well as the convergence feedback (low level moisture convergence by the waves themselves). It is shown that the unstable coupled mode found by Hirst (UH mode) is profoundly modified by the convergence feedback. The feedback increases the unstable range of the UH mode and can increase its growth rate several folds. The maximally growing UH mode can become westward propagating for certain strength of convergence feedback. If the convergence feedback strength exceeds a critical value, several new unstable intraseasonal modes are also introduced. These modes are basically ‘advective’ modes. For relatively weak strengths of the convergence feedback the growth rates of these modes are smaller than that of the UH mode. As the atmosphere approaches ‘moist neutral’ state, the growth rates of these modes could become comparable or even larger than that of the UH mode. It is argued that these results explain why the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal is clear in the eastern Pacific but not so in the western Pacific and they may also explain some of the differences between individual ENSO events. Our results also explain the aperiodic behaviour of some coupled numerical models. Importance of this process in explaining the observed aperiodicity of the ENSO phenomenon is indicated.