Indirect Radiative and Climatic Effects of Sulfate and Organic Carbon Aerosols over East Asia Investigated by RIEMS

The indirect radiative and climatic effects of sulfate and organic carbon aerosols over East Asia were investigated using a Regional Integrated Environment Model System (RIEMS) with an empirical aerosol-cloud parameterization.The first indirect radiative forcing was negative and ranged from-9-0 W m-2 in the domain.The maximum cooling,up to-9 W m-2,occurred in the Chongqing District in winter,whereas the cooling areas were larger during summer than in winter.Organic carbon (OC) aerosols were more abundant in winter than in summer,whereas the sulfate concentration during summer was much higher than during winter.The concentrations of sulfate and OC were comparable in winter,and sulfate played a dominant role in determining indirect radiative forcing in summer,whereas in winter,both sulfate and OC were important.The regional mean indirect radiative forcings were-0.73 W m-2 and-0.41 W m-2 in summer and winter,respectively.The surface cooling caused by indirect effects was more obvious in winter than that in summer.The ground temperature decreased by ～1.2 K in most areas of eastern China in winter,whereas in summer,the temperature decreased (～-1.5 K) in some regions,such as the Yangtze River region,but increased (～0.9 K) in the areas between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers.In winter,the precipitation decreased by 0-6 mm in most areas of eastern China,but in summer,alternating bands of increasing (up to 80 mm) and decreasing (～-80 mm) precipitation appeared in eastern China.     

家庭碳排放计算方法分析评价

碳排放定量评价是碳减排政策制定的依据。家庭作为产品和服务消费的主体, 其能源需求及碳排放问题正日益引起国际社会和科学界的关注与研究。本文在界定家庭碳排放及其构成等相关概念的基础上, 梳理了国际上家庭碳排放的主要计算方法, 对比分析了各种主要计算方法的优缺点, 并构建了符合中国家庭碳排放构成及特点的评价指标体系及计算方法, 这对家庭碳排放的相关研究具有重要的现实意义。     

四川自贡地区地下卤水锂矿化特征及靶区预测

锂作为一种新能源、新材料,对国民经济建设及国防安全保障具有重要的战略意义。卤水中液体锂为锂资源的主要来源之一。四川盆地自贡地区地下卤水资源丰富,但开发利用方式较为单一。前人对自流井背斜卤水中的锂资源研究较少,但已有数据均表明局部卤水中Li⁺含量达单独开采工业品位的2~4倍,具有较高的开采价值。近年来,对自贡地区的地下卤水资源分布情况进行了调查,对有利地区采集的样品进行了分析,结果表明: 锂资源已达边界品位的3~4倍、最低工业品位的2倍以上; Li⁺与Na⁺、K⁺、$NH^{+}_{4}$、Cl^-含量呈明显的正相关,卤水中Na⁺、K⁺、$NH^{+}_{4}$、Cl^-的含量可作为Li⁺含量的间接指示; 降低卤水中Mg/Li值能够有效控制提锂成本; 相比于黄卤,黑卤有较低的Mg²⁺和较高的Li⁺、Na⁺、K⁺、$NH^{+}_{4}$及Cl^-。通过综合分析认为,邓井关背斜的轴部黑卤密集分布地区可作为锂资源的找矿靶区。     

用数值预报场间接对比新疆两种型号探空系统

利用2007—2010年近4年的探空资料对比新疆中、北部地区乌鲁木齐、伊宁、克拉玛依、北塔山4个采用GTS (U)-2型P波段雷达-电子探空仪的探空站及其周围的阿勒泰、阿克苏和库尔勒3个采用GTS1型L波段雷达-电子探空仪的探空站的探空记录与预报场的偏差值,发现采用GTS1型探空仪的3个探空站的探空记录不仅在同一观测时段而且08:00(北京时,下同) 与20:00两个不同的观测时段与预报场差值的差异小;4个采用GTS (U)-2型探空仪的探空站的探空记录与预报场的差值在同一观测时间的差异小,但08:00和20:00的差异很大;且GTS (U)-2型探空仪与GTS1型探空仪20:00获取的探空记录与预报场差值的差异小,但08:00探空记录的差异大。综合对比结果表明:2007年1月—2010年3月新疆自治区采用的GTS (U)-2型探空仪的探空记录08:00可能存在问题,用户在数据资料分析时需要特别注意。     

基于VB环境下水准网平差程序设计研究

在工程测量中,当测区需要观测很多点的高程时,就需要布设水准网。水准网间接平差模型具有许多优点,是编写水准网平差软件的主要模型。本文根据水准网间接平差的原理,论述了程序实现三四等水准网平差的思路和实现方法,并用相关实例验证了可行性。     

IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003–2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences

Abstract

Drainage basins in many parts of the world are ungauged or poorly gauged, and in some cases existing measurement networks are declining. The problem is compounded by the impacts of human-induced changes to the land surface and climate, occurring at the local, regional and global scales. Predictions of ungauged or poorly gauged basins under these conditions are highly uncertain. The IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins, or PUB, is a new initiative launched by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), aimed at formulating and implementing appropriate science programmes to engage and energize the scientific community, in a coordinated manner, towards achieving major advances in the capacity to make predictions in ungauged basins. The PUB scientific programme focuses on the estimation of predictive uncertainty, and its subsequent reduction, as its central theme. A general hydrological prediction system contains three components: (a) a model that describes the key processes of interest, (b) a set of parameters that represent those landscape properties that govern critical processes, and (c) appropriate meteorological inputs (where needed) that drive the basin response. Each of these three components of the prediction system, is either not known at all, or at best known imperfectly, due to the inherent multi-scale space—time heterogeneity of the hydrological system, especially in ungauged basins. PUB will therefore include a set of targeted scientific programmes that attempt to make inferences about climatic inputs, parameters and model structures from available but inadequate data and process knowledge, at the basin of interest and/or from other similar basins, with robust measures of the uncertainties involved, and their impacts on predictive uncertainty. Through generation of improved understanding, and methods for the efficient quantification of the underlying multi-scale heterogeneity of the basin and its response, PUB will inexorably lead to new, innovative methods for hydrological predictions in ungauged basins in different parts of the world, combined with significant reductions of predictive uncertainty. In this way, PUB will demonstrate the value of data, as well as provide the information needed to make predictions in ungauged basins, and assist in capacity building in the use of new technologies. This paper presents a summary of the science and implementation plan of PUB, with a call to the hydrological community to participate actively in the realization of these goals.     

关于震源体物理意义的实验研究

运用固体传压介质岩石三轴试验装置模拟震源失稳振动过程，采取多点布设电阻应变片的方法，对试件突发失稳振动行为及其在试件－压机系统中的传播过程进行观测，测试结果为：应力振动的初动半周期平均约为０．１１ｍｓ，与岩石类型，周压及应力降等因素无关，振幅逐渐衰减；在试件－压机系统中，振动波从试件错动面处向外传播，其速度约为３．３０ｍ／ｍｓ；在失稳初动半周期内，振动波向试件以上传播的距离为３６３ｍｍ，传播的范围     

试论大中河流流量站网规划的经济原则

本文论述大中河流流量站网规划的经济原则。从内插年径流的精度及其经济效益这一目标入手，通过布站密度与影响年径流量精度之间的关系，运用经济学的基本原理，建立了精度－经济函数之间的关系。并以黄河上游干流水文站和泾河流域代表站为例，验证精度－经济函数结构的合理性。为以经济原则约束下，确定布站密度及其精度指标，提供一种思路与方法。     

产业网络灾害经济损失评估研究进展

开展产业网络灾害经济损失评估研究,是理解产业网络脆弱性和潜在风险,科学指导灾前风险防范及灾后恢复重建决策的关键环节。本文从产业网络中灾害扩散的角度,对其造成的经济损失类型及研究进展进行了系统梳理。结果表明,产业物理损失方面,主要通过建立灾害强度参数与厂房建筑、生产设备及存货等物理损失程度间的脆弱性曲线进行评估。受灾产业中断损失方面,应关注其组合投入要素物理受损情景下的生产能力损失程度(PCLR)。产业网络灾害波及损失方面,主要存在微观“企业供应链网络”和宏观“产业链网络”二种研究尺度。其中,前者以微观企业个体为基本粒度,利用复杂网络分析方法,模拟灾害依托企业供应关系扩散的空间过程及其造成的供应链中断损失;后者以聚合的产业部门或区域为基本粒度,利用投入产出(IO)、可计算一般均衡(CGE)等宏观经济计量模型,模拟灾害在产业部门或区域间的扩散过程及其造成的宏观区域经济损失。最后,从情景分析的视角,构建包括灾害事件场景、产业网络暴露、节点物理损失和中断损失、供应链网络中断损失、宏观产出损失于一体的多过程、多尺度经济损失集成评估体系,以综合模拟灾害损失在产业网络中的放大效应。     

用于普通相机标定的三维控制架测量方法

普通相机标定的三维控制架降低了控制场的建设成本,使用户自主进行相机标定成为可能。针对如何快速准确进行三维控制架测量,获得高精度控制点坐标问题,该文分别采用两测站空间前方交会法和单测站空间极坐标法对三维控制架进行测量,分析对比两种方法的测量精度,并总结出提高测量精度的方法。实验表明,两测站空间前方交会法测量精度高,测量方法简便易行,精度稳定可靠。