Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.     

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.     

气候变化情景下黄淮海区域热量资源及夏玉米温度适宜度

利用黄淮海区域90个站点1971—2000年逐日气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的未来气候变化情景(A1B)下区域气候模式(Reg CM3)模拟的黄淮海区域1951—2070年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料,结合夏玉米主要生育期对温度的需求,构建了黄淮海区域的温度适宜度和变异系数模型,并对1951—2070年黄淮海区域热量资源、夏玉米主要生育期的温度适宜度及其变异系数的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1)黄淮海区域≥10℃积温和80%保证率下日平均温度≥10℃的初日均呈现由北向南依次增加的趋势,且随时间推移,分别呈增加和提前趋势。2)黄淮海区域夏玉米播种—出苗期的温度适宜度随时间整体呈逐渐上升的变化趋势、其变异系数随时间呈降—升—降的变化趋势;出苗—抽雄期的温度适宜度随时间呈先降后升的变化趋势、其变异系数呈降—升—降—升的变化趋势;抽雄—成熟期的温度适宜度空间上呈现2010年前北低南高、未来情景下中部低四周高的分布趋势,时间上呈2010年前稳定、未来情景下先降后升的变化趋势,其变异系数呈相反变化趋势;3)黄淮海区域夏玉米温度适宜度及其变异系数从播种—出苗期—出苗—抽雄期—抽雄—成熟期均呈反相位的变化关系。     

基于 Flex 的市级国土资源综合监管平台设计与实现

采用Flex技术,基于NewMap Server进行WebGIS系统的开发,设计并实现呼伦贝尔市级国土资源"一张图"信息监管平台。系统克服数据来源多样、数据格式异构、数据基准不一致等问题,实现土地利用、矿产、地籍等多种数据的复合显示、查询、分析、输出、国土综合应用等功能,为国土管理部门提供管理、决策服务。     

Research on Formation Mechanisms of Hot Dry Rock Resources in China

As an important geothermal resource, hot dry rock(HDR) reserves have been studied in many countries. HDR resources in China have huge capacity and have become one of the most important resources for the potential replacement of fossil fuels. However, HDR resources are difficult to develop and utilise. Technologies for use with HDR, such as high–temperature drilling, reservoir characterisation, reservoir fracturing, microseismic monitoring and high–temperature power stations, originate from the field of oil and drilling. Addressing how to take advantage of these developed technologies is a key factor in the development of HDR reserves. Based on the thermal crustal structure in China, HDR resources can be divided into four types: high radioactive heat production, sedimentary basin, modern volcano and the inner–plate active tectonic belt. The prospective regions of HDR resources are located in South Tibet, West Yunnan, the southeast coast of China, Bohai Rim, Songliao Basin and Guanzhong Basin. The related essential technologies are relatively mature, and the prospect of HDR power generation is promising. Therefore, analysing the formation mechanisms of HDR resources and promoting the transformation of technological achievements, large–scale development and the utilisation of HDR resources can be achieved in China.     

A Review of the Bentong-Raub Suture vis-à-vis New Insight of the Tectonic Evolution of Malay Peninsula, South East Asia

As a milestone of the entire energy industry, unconventional resources have inevitably swept the world in the last decade, and will certainly dominate the global oil and gas industry in the near future. Eventually, the “unconventional” will become “conventional”. Along with the rapid development, however, some issues have emerged, which are closely related to the viability of unconventional resources development. Under the current circumstances of low crude oil and gas price, coupled with the prominent environmental concerns, the arguments about the development and production of unconventional resources have been recently heated up. This work introduced the full-blown aspects of unconventional resources especially shale reservoirs, by discussing their concepts and definitions, reviewing the shale gas and shale oil development history and necessity, analyzing the shale plays’ geology and petroleum systems with respects to key hydrocarbon accumulation elements and mechanisms, and summarizing the technology resolution. This study also discussed the relevant key issues, including significant estimation uncertainty of technically recoverable resources, the equivocal understanding of complex geology preventing the production and technologies implementation optimization, the difficulties of experiences and technologies global expanding, and the corresponding risks and uncertainties. In addition, based on the latest production and exploration data, the future perspective of the unconventional resources was depicted from global unconventional resources assessments, technology development, and limitations constraining the development.     

长兴岛碳酸盐岩裂隙岩溶水特征分析

长兴岛碳酸盐岩区占整个岛的44%,受降雨、岩性、构造等条件的影响,岩溶较发育,地下水资源较丰富,且水质较好,适宜作为饮用水水源。在收集大量基础地质资料,并结合现场调查、钻探、抽水试验成果,分析了从上至下5层岩溶带的发育特征、赋水性规律及补、径、排条件。同时考虑供水水文地质条件,进行了天然资源和开采资源概算,及成井条件、水质的分析评价。     

对华南矿产资源深部探测若干问题的探讨——以若干超大型矿床深部找矿突破为例

华南是中国近百年内矿产资源开发强度比较高的地区,形成了赣南钨矿、桂北锡矿、湘南铅锌矿等一大批老矿山。随着已探明资源的快速消耗,"深地"探测、深部找矿已是大势所趋。基于对华南不同地区、不同类型、不同企业矿山生产情况的了解,文章对矿产资源的深部探测问题,从探测的目标、理论、深度、程度、效益等诸方面加以探讨,认为:当前技术经济条件下,1坚持国家目标、科学目标和人才目标相结合的原则,宜灵活运用各种成矿理论,充分发挥"五层楼+地下室"等勘查模型的作用,把"层状含矿地质体"作为矿产资源深部探测的主要目标;2坚持从已知到未知和由浅入深的原则,重点在老矿区和浅部地质与矿产资源比较清楚的工作程度比较高的地区优先部署工作,既可以降低风险又可以满足现实需要;3宜坚持点面结合的原则,2000 m、3000 m乃至于5000 m深钻的部署,宜相应地部署在矿床、矿田和矿集区工作程度最高的地区,达到立体探测和"透明化"的目的;4坚持综合评价的原则,综合调查、综合评价、综合研究,学科也要综合,避免单打一,避免单学科冒进。以问题为导向,具体问题具体分析,注意合理的探测深度和工作程度,抓住关键,有针对性地布设工作量,才能取得成效。     

二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度评价

以二连浩特市人水关系为研究对象,从取水总量和谐度、用水效率和谐度、水生态环境保护和谐度三个方面构建了二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度评价体系。从评价结果可以看出,二连浩特市开展节水型社会建设以来,水资源与经济社会和谐度发生了较显著的改善。评价体系较好地反映了二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度,对北方干旱缺水地区节水型社会建设具有借鉴意义。     

北京飞云瀑景点崩塌地质灾害分析及防治方法研究

近15年来,北京飞云瀑景点附近发生过2次大规模崩塌,崩塌堆积岩块体积累计达450 m3,崩塌岩块已滚落覆盖至景区小路。经勘查,确定了1处危岩体及1处危岩带,该危岩体及危岩带对本景点的正常观赏及过往游人构成极大威胁。本文对该景点的崩塌地质灾害地质特征进行了简要介绍;对地质灾害成因、自然发展趋势等进行了初步探讨;对危岩体(带)的稳定性进行了计算、分析及评价;对可能采用的治理方法进行了比选分析。为了最大程度地保护景观资源,最终选择了以避让为主的治理措施,并对选定的治理方案及计算进行了阐述。