Impact of bogus vortex for track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclone

The initialization scheme designed to improve the representation of a tropical cyclone in the initial condition is tested during Orissa super cyclone (1999) over Bay of Bengal using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University — National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State — NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). A series of numerical experiments are conducted to generate initial vortices by assimilating the bogus wind information into MM5. Wind speed and location of the tropical cyclone obtained from best track data are used to define maximum wind speed, and centre of the storm respectively, in the initial vortex. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NCEP analysis. Using this scheme, the 24-h, 48-h, and 72-h forecast errors for this case was 63, 58, and 46 km, respectively, compared with 120, 335, and 550 km for the non-vortex initialized case starting from the NCEP global analysis. When bogus vortices are introduced into initial conditions, the significant improvements in the storm intensity predictions are also seen. The impact of the vortex size on the structure of the initial vortex is also evaluated. We found that when the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of the specified vortex is smaller than that of which can be resolved by the model, the specified vortex is not well adapted by the model. In contrast, when the vortex is sufficiently large for it to be resolved on horizontal grid, but not so large to be unrealistic, more accurate storm structure is obtained.     

Analysis of Summer Cold Vortex Activity Anomalies in Northeastern China and Their Relationship with Regional Precipitation and Temperature

The Northeastern China cold vortex (NCCV) is one type of strong cyclonic vortex that occurs near Northeastern China (NEC), and NCCV activities are typically accompanied by a series of hazardous weather. This paper employed an automatic algorithm to identify the NCCVs from 1979 to 2018 and analyzed their circulation patterns and climatic impacts by using the defined NCCV intensity index (NCCVI). The analysis revealed that the NCCV activities in summer exhibited a strong inter-annual variability, with an obvious periodicity of 3–4 years and 6–7 years, but without significant trends. In years when the NCCVI was high, NEC experienced negative geopotential height anomalies, cyclonic circulation, and cooler temperature anomalies, which were conducive to the maintenance and development of NCCV activities. Furthermore, large amounts of water vapor converged in NEC through two transportation routes as the NCCVs intensified, leading to a significant positive (negative) correlation with the summer precipitation (surface temperature) in NEC. The Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were closely related to summer NCCV activities. As the Atlantic SST rose, large amounts of surface sensible and latent heat flux were transported into the lower troposphere, inducing a positive geopotential height anomaly that occurred on the east side of the heat source. As a result, an eastward diverging flow was formed in the upper troposphere and propagated downstream, i.e., the eastward propagating Rossby wave train, which eventually led to a coupled circulation in the Ural Mountains and NEC, as well as more intensive NCCV activities in summer.     

Research Status and Prospect of the Interaction Between Tibetan Plateau Shear Line and Tibetan Plateau Vortex

The Tibetan Plateau Shear Line (TPSL) is usually accompanied by the Tibetan Plateau Vortex (TPV) and this phenomenon is one of the assembled weather systems over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surrounding areas. This assembled system plays a very important role in the high impact weather process in the TP and East China. We reviewed the research history and progress of TPVs and TPSLs, and mainly discussed the relationship and interaction mechanism of them. According to the latest research achievement of TPSLs and its relationship with TPVs, the development and application trends of related theory and methods, we proposed several notable new research directions in the field of this study. It is not clear for the relationship and the physical mechanism of the interaction between TPSLs and TPVs as well as some high impact weather initiated by them currently. Therefore, this research work is really quite important for theoretical development of weather dynamics of the TP, and is expected to provide a theoretical guide for severe weather analysis and forecast over the TP and its neighborhood.     

一次东风波中尺度暴雨的Q矢量与MM5预测能力对比

利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料对2001年8月3～4日的浙南闽北的东风波暴雨过程进行了分析。根据Q矢量散度分析讨论了这次过程中的暴雨演变以及东风波诱生中尺度低涡发生发展的原因。同时,利用中尺度有限区域模式MM5V2对该东风波诱生中尺度低涡进行模拟。结果表明:Q矢量散度大值中心强度和位置的演变较好反映了暴雨落区和中尺度低涡的诱生,其预示能力较MM5V2预报的准确率高,将中尺度模式和Q矢量计算结合起来可以提高风暴路径和雨区的预报准确率。     

COMPARISON OF THE STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DEVELOPED VERSUS UNDEVELOPED MID-LEVEL VORTEXES

Using the NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data,several obvious differences of the structural characteristics of developed versus undeveloped mid-level vortexes are studied.First,the central vorticity of the developed mid-level vortex increases towards higher levels while the undeveloped one decreases.The low-level convergence structure maintains well in the developed mid-level vortex whereas the undeveloped one does badly.Second,on the one hand,according to the symmetric analysis,the horizontal wind field and wind vertical section of the developed mid-level vortex are well symmetric while those of the undeveloped one are less symmetric.Meanwhile,weak wind vertical shear help the developed mid-level vortex to establish a warm core in upper-and mid-levels of the troposphere.On the other hand,according to the balance analysis,better balance between wind and pressure is shown in the mid-and lower-levels of the troposphere of the developed mid-level vortex than in those of the undeveloped vortex.Third,positive anomaly of potential vorticity is enhanced and developed in the vertical direction of the developed vortex.However,the undeveloped vortex weakens with a weak positive anomaly.     

长生命史冷涡影响下持续对流性天气的环境条件

利用云图和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对生命史长达9天的冷涡系统的云图形态、移动轨迹、强度变化及其长久维持的原因进行了分析;并对比分析该冷涡影响下的持续对流性天气与冷涡分裂的冷空气、湿度层结及水汽条件的关系,探讨对流性天气的预报着眼点和不稳定参数阈值。主要结论:(1)连续9天对流性天气分别出现在冷涡涡旋云系头部的南部或东南部。强的对流过程时,云顶TBB温度在-40～-72℃;弱的对流过程时,云顶TBB温度在-40℃以上。(2)东亚阻塞高压两侧高涡度区的正涡度平流交替补充冷涡对正涡度的损耗,是冷涡长久滞留维持的主要原因。(3)冷涡在长生命期中是动态的,冷涡中心距研究代表点的距离与对流性天气的强弱有关;对流层中层V分量能敏感地反映冷涡分裂的冷空气活动情况。(4)随着对流性天气的持续,低空湿度层逐渐增厚,而850～700 hPa相对湿度≤60%的相对于区始终存在;975 hPa水汽通量的大小和方向反映来自渤海的水汽输送状况。(5)强天气威胁指数SWEAT和风暴相对环境螺旋度SREH在判断对流性天气的强度方面比常用的不稳定参数效果好。     

VORTEX MOTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERM*

Large vortices with scales ranging from hundreds meters to tens of kilometers are generally found in the atmospheric convective boundary layer(CBL).These vortices play important roles in the vertical transport of momentum,heat,water vapor and other tracers in the boundary layer.On the basis of the view of interaction between the convection in CBL and the gravity waves in the upper stable layer the authors developed a convection-wave theory on the formation of large vortices.According to the theory the wavenumber spectrum of the large vortices mainly depends on the atmospheric conditions in both of the upper and lower layers,such as wind speed,wind direction shear,stratification as well as temperature jump.In the present paper satellite image and weather data in a case of cold air outbreak over warm ocean are analyzed to study every stage of the convective processes,such as cloud street,convective cell as well as their transformation.According to the theory the wavenumber compositions for cloud street and convective cell are calculated,respectively,on the basis of the atmospheric conditions at every stage.The distributions of vertical motions,convergent band and disturbed interface are obtained and compared with the cloud patterns in the convective processes.Thus the study seems to offer a likely explanation for the origin of large vortices in CBL.     

2003年7月8～9日江淮流域暴雨过程中涡旋的结构特征分析

2003年淮河流域梅雨期 (6月29日～7月11日) 的强降水过程有三次: 6月29日～7月1日、 7月3～5日及7月8～11日。本文对7月8日12时～9日12时期间湖南、 安徽和江苏发生的强降水过程的中尺度数值模式MM5的输出资料进行了诊断分析。分析结果表明: 除大尺度系统的配置有利于此次降水的发生以外, 此次降水主要发生在由西南及偏南暖湿气流与偏北气流辐合形成的梅雨锋切变线上, 切变线上辐合中心处生成并发展的两个中尺度低涡是造成降水的直接系统。低空西南风急流形成了从孟加拉湾、 南海至华东地区的强水汽输送带以及湖南、 安徽和江苏的水汽辐合中心, 为暴雨创造了十分有利的水汽条件。在低层切变线的辐合中心处有两个低涡分别生成或发展, 并沿切变线向东北方向移动, 这两个低涡生成的位置是低空急流左前侧急流达到极值的区域 (也是正涡度中心区), 其生成可能与低空急流的加强有关。在低涡附近, 低层水汽辐合较强, 且对流层中低层形成了强正涡度中心和强散度中心相耦合的动力结构, 并有强上升运动维持, 使得低层辐合的水汽被抬升到对流层高层, 有利于暴雨的发生。     

黑龙江省一次强降水的动力强迫作用分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站加密观测资料、FY-4卫星云图、新一代天气雷达、ECMWF细网格、GRAPES_MESO及NECP的1°×1°再分析资料,分析2019年8月6日08:00至8日08:00,黑龙江省中部和西南部的强降水过程动力机制,以及引发的降水性质和降水分布特征。结果表明:(1)强降水过程共分3个阶段2种性质:与冷涡相连的鞍形场的对流云降水;鞍形场和增强暖锋共同作用的混合云和对流云降水;台风“范斯高”残涡作用下,改变云系移动路径形成的对流云降水。(2)冷涡、副热带高压、台风的相互作用,是该过程产生的根本原因;副热带高压和台风外围暖湿气流配合冷涡冷空气,为强降水提供水汽和不稳定条件;狭窄的水汽输送通道造成了强降水的空间不连续性;低层辐合线为强降水提供触发条件;鞍形场的稳定结构、大小兴安岭南麓强迫抬升、台风系统阻挡延长强降水的持续时间。     

东北夏季气温变化与北半球温度及极涡的关系

利用1961-2002年中国东北地区80个气象站夏季6-8月逐日气温、美国NCAR/NCEP再分析资料和国家气候中心环流因子资料,采用相关分析、SVD分解等方法,对中国东北夏季气温变化与中高纬主要环流系统的关系进行探讨.结果发现:中国东北位于东西伯利亚变温区南缘,其夏季气温年际变化规律和东西伯利亚一致;北极极涡边缘的形态变化影响东北夏季气温,不同的边缘形态对应东北不同的温度分布特征,主要是极涡边缘70 °N左右的150～180 °E和60～90 °W两个关键区,其高度场的变化决定着东北夏季气温的变化.