辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计的海冰参数选取

海冰参数的合理取值是海洋工程海冰灾害风险评估的重要内容。利用1950—2018年的冰情等级(5个等级)数据,进行了1950—2018、1950—1990、1991—2018三种情景下的回归分析,确定了不同时期的冰情等级概率分布密度函数。利用鲅鱼圈雷达观测站2002—2017年的海冰现场实测资料,分别对鲅鱼圈附近海域一般冰厚、最大冰厚、最小冰厚进行概率分布拟合。基于上述概率分布结果,给出不同冰情等级的重现期,进而对海冰作业条件给出的设计参考值进行评价。结果表明:1990年以后2级、3级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变小,4级、5级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变大,规范给出重现期范围已不能代表辽东湾冬季海冰情况。本研究成果可为辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计提供重要数据支撑。     

海浪的条件特征周期

在海浪波面高度为正态分布的假定下,导出一种以给定波高为条件的条件周期概率密度函数.与风浪槽中测量数据比较,结果表明,在窄谱情况下此概率密度函数与实验室风浪的实际符合良好.根据此密度函数定义了3种条件特征周期,并导出它们与平均周期的关系式.根据这些关系对有关海洋工程上的一些问题作了解释和讨论.     

潜艇疲劳载荷的概率模型

探讨了建立潜艇疲劳载荷概率模型的方法,引入了正态分布和两参数威布尔分布两种概率模型。两参数威布尔分布较适合于用来描述潜艇下潜深度分布的概率特征。可根据潜艇的设计参数、任务及航行区域等因素来选取最可能的分布形式获得潜深分布密度函数。潜艇疲劳热点部位的应力(应变)幅值分布,可由应力(应变)和潜深的关系通过相应的变换得到。     

耿贝尔逻辑模型在极值风速和有效波高联合概率分布中的应用

首先介绍了耿贝尔逻辑模型,采用该模型对南海海域的涠州岛海洋站的风速和有效波高实测数据进行了分析,结果表明耿贝尔逻辑模型较好地描述了年极值风速和有效波高两随机变量的联合分布;采用得到的极值风浪联合概率分布推算了不同重现期的极值风速和波高,表明考虑风速和波高相关性对设计荷载的确定有显著影响。由于耿贝尔逻辑模型具有函数结构简单,参数估计方便,因此有望成为极值风速和波高联合分布的较理想概率模型。     

具有结构-桩-土相互作用的海洋平台结构体系承载能力的概率分析

本文研究了桩在竖向荷载和横向荷载作用下承载能力的计算模型,给出了单桩承载能力的概率分析以及不同支承条件对海洋平台结构体系承载能力的影响;提出了具有结构－桩－土相互作用的海洋平台结构体系承载能力的概率特性和在极端荷载作用下海洋平台结构体系的可靠度计算方法。研究结果表明：对于桩支承海洋平台结构体系的承载能力,结构－桩－土相互作用的影响是不容忽视的,其偏差影响取决于土性的离散度。     

Topological properties of disjoint channel networks within enclosed regions

Enclosure of some portion of one or more natural stream-drainage basins by superposition of a rectangle on a map of drainage network results in fragmentation of the natural basins into a set of disjoint channel networks. Each of these may have some channel links and forks of the natural network plus truncated links intersected by the enclosure boundary. The topological properties of the network elements in the enclosure are used to set up a model of random network patterns, in which the number of disjoint channel networks is expressed as a function of the number of links and forks in the enclosures. This function is shown to be a multiplicative constant times the square root of the number of links or forks. Empirical data on square and rectangular enclosures of several sizes from the Inez (Kentucky)Quadrangle map showed that the predicted multiplicative constants do not agree with observation, but that the square-root relation seems to hold at least to a first approximation. The models thus can be used as a norm against which deviations of real-world enclosures from network pattern randomness can be studied.     

A computer method to calculate the convolution of statistical distributions

It is becoming increasingly important to determine probability distributions of combinations of random variables. Convolution is a technique by which the distribution of a sum of random variables can be determined. This paper presents some simplifications in order to reduce the numerical integrations and computer time. In addition, the method may be used with empirical nonanalytic distributions. While Monte Carlo methods are also appropriate for calculating the distribution, convolution can give at least as much accuracy as Monte Carlo methods with a reduction in computation. Two applications are presented: one approximates the distribution of percent sand in an area, and the other indicates a method of determining sample size when using the distribution of means to approximate normality.