The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

数学地质在矿山研究中的应用--判别分析归类矿体属性实例

数学地质方法为宏观地质研究提供了定量的可能。判别分析对研究未知属性矿体的归属有着重要的意义。苏州西部地区通安——潭山多金属成矿带中，小茅山铜铅锌矿段，潭山铅锌银铁矿段位于成矿带的两端，属性已知。该成矿带中有一未知属性的铜铅锌银迂里矿段，用判别分析方法对其归类。研究结果表明，未知属性的迂里矿段归属潭山多金属硫化物矿床类型，即高—中温多金属硫化物矿床类型。     

基于GIS的地下水水源地补给潜力探讨

本文提出了一种基于GIS的补给潜力分析方法。在实例研究中,通过对地形、地表物质组成、包气带岩性、植被覆盖等因子建立的专题图层的叠加分析,确定了地下水的补给潜力分区,结合研究区含水层分布特征,综合确定了水源地的靶区和开采潜力区。研究表明,利用GIS确定研究区降雨入渗补给量是一种高效、直观、可行的方法。     

库水位变化对库岸边坡稳定性的影响

在假定坡体孔隙水水位为水平线且不考虑渗透作用影响的基础上,基于极限平衡法考察了水位上升及下降的快慢对边坡安全系数的影响。对比计算表明:在水位缓慢变化即坡体内外水位线等高的条件下,边坡的安全系数随着水位坡高比的增大先略减小后急剧增大,且在水位坡高比为0.3处取得最小值,在边坡完全淹没于水中时取得最大值。当边坡完全淹没于水中后,水位高于坡顶的多少对边坡安全系数没有影响;在水位骤降或陡升条件下,相同库水位对应的边坡安全系数基本上均小于水位缓慢变化情况下的安全系数,故工程实际中无论是排水还是蓄水,都应尽量保持水位缓慢变化,这样才能使边坡处于较安全的状态。     

Microthermometric measurement of fluid inclusions and its constraints on genesis of PGE-polymetallic deposits in Lower Cambrian black rock series, southern China

Systematic microthermometric measurements of fluid inclusions in the PGE-polymetallic deposits hosted in the Lower Cambrian black rock series in southern China were performed, and the results suggest: (1) there exist two types of fluid inclusions. TypeⅠis of NaCl-H2O system with low-medium salinity, and its homogenization temperatures (Th) and salinities are 106.9- 286.4℃ and ( 0.8- 21.8) wt%NaCl eq. respectively; TypeⅡ is of CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system with medium-high salinities, and its homogenization temperatures and salinities range from 120.1℃ to 269.6℃ and ( 11.4- 31.4) wt%NaCl eq., respectively. The typeⅡ fluid inclusions have been discovered for the first time in this kind of deposits; (2) two generations of ore-forming fluids were recognized. Characteristics of fluid inclusions in the PGE-polymetallic ores and carbonate-quartz stockworks in the underlying phosphorites are almost of no difference, they may represent ore-forming fluids at the main metallogenic stage. The peak value of homogenization temperature of those fluid inclusions is about 170℃, while their salinities possess a remarkable bimodal distribution pattern with two peak values of (27-31) wt%NaCl eq. and (4-6) wt%NaCl eq. On the contrary, fluid inclusions in the carbonate-quartz veins in the hanging wall may represent ore-forming fluids at the post-metallogenetic stage. The homogenization temperatures and the peak values of salinities are mostly 130-170℃ and (12-14) wt%NaCl eq., respectively; (3) nobel gas isotopic composition analyses in combination with the microthermometric measurements of fluid inclusions suggest that the ore-forming fluids at the main metallogenetic stage were probably derived from mixing of basinal hot brines with the CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system and seawater with the NaCl-H2O system; (4) in the Early Cambrian, the basinal hot brines were trapped in the Caledonian basins, which were distributed along the southern margin of the Yangtze Craton, and where giant thick sediments were accumulated, and expelled and migrated laterally along the strata because of the pressure caused by overlying sediments. The basinal hot brines absorbed Ni, Mo, V, PGE from the surrounding rocks and were transformed into ore-bearing hydrothermal fluids with the CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system and medium-high salinities, then ascended along faults and mixed with seawater of the NaCl-H2O system, and finally PGE-polymetallic deposits or occurrences were formed in the black rock series.     

Counting Beans: Agrobiodiversity,Indigeneity, and Agrarian Reform

In‐field conservation of locally domesticated crop varieties ameliorates agrobiodiversity losses, but the interaction among nationally regulated socioeconomic factors at the local scale tends to discourage this. Analyses of household surveys conducted in Ecuador demonstrate that state and nongovernmental institutions interact to discourage cultivation of locally domesticated varieties of beans (Phaseolus spp.). Land privatization, agricultural extension, and credit programs favor market production of introduced modern bean varieties, and locally domesticated varieties are noted for favorable nutrition, culinary, and agroecological qualities. Resolving disconnections between the market and social values for landrace beans may provide agrobiodiversity conservation opportunities.     

Efficient use of resources: urban waste ash and soil fertility on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria

Waste disposal constitutes an acute problem in numerous African cities. One solution could lie in the recycling of the nutrient-rich waste into agriculture taking place in and around cities. Farmers involved in vegetable production around Jos, Nigeria, have developed a sophisticated soil fertility management strategy combining inorganic fertilizers, manure and urban waste ash. This paper: (1) investigates the socio-economic constraints linked to obtaining scarce organic inputs, particularly urban waste ash and the health hazards (particularly heavy metal contamination of soil and crops) caused by using this ash and (2) suggests ways to improve use of this important resource.