Online location of seismic damage to a water distribution system

As one of the most important urban lifeline systems, a water distribution system can be damaged under a strong earthquake, and the damage cannot easily be located, especially immediately after the event. This often causes tremendous difficulties to post-earthquake emergency response and recovery activities. This paper proposes a methodology to locate seismic damage to a water distribution system by monitoring watcr head online at some nodes in the water distribution system. An artificial neural network-based inverse analysis method is developed to estimate the water head variations at all nodes that are not monitored based on the water head variations at the nodes that are monitored. The methodology provides a quick, effective, and practical way to locate seismic damage to a water distribution system.     

The glacial extent and glacial advance/retreat asynchroncity in East Asia during Last Glaciation

New dates for last glacial cycle in Tibetan bordering mountains and in East Asia show the glacial extent during the early/middle (MIS3-4) stage is larger than that of the late stage (MIS2) in last glacial cycle. It is asynchronous with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets maximum and changes in oceanic circulation that predominately control global climate. In research areas, three seasonal precipitation patterns control the accumulation and ablation of glaciers. The modes of the westerlies and the East Asian mountains/islands in and along the Pacific Ocean are favorable to glacier advance with mainly winter precipitation accumulation. There was a global temperature-decreasing phase in the middle stage (MIS3b, 54-44 ka BP), when the glacier extent was larger than that in Last Glaciation Maximum due to the low temperature combined with high moisture. It is revealed that the Quaternary glaciers not only evolved with localization, but also maybe with globalization. The latest studies show a fact that the developmental characteristics of glaciers in high mountains or islands along the western Pacific Ocean are not in accord with those inland areas. Therefore, it can be concluded that glacier development exhibits regional differences. The study validates the reasonableness of the asynchronous advance theory, and ascertains that both the synchronous and asynchronous advance/retreat of glaciers existed from 30 ka BP to 10 ka BP. It is not suitable to emphasize the synchronicity between global ice-volume and glacier change.     

Formulating a General Spatial Segregation Measure*

Most traditional segregation measures, such as the index of dissimilarity D, fail to distinguish spatial patterns effectively. Previously proposed spatial measures modifying D suffer from several shortcomings. This article describes a general spatial segregation index based upon the concept of composite population counts, which are derived from grouping people in neighboring areas together to account implicitly for spatial interaction of groups across unit boundaries. The suggested spatial index can overcome the disadvantages of previous indices and can assess the spatial extent of the segregated clusters. The results offer a more comprehensive depiction of spatial segregation of a region.     

模糊城市系统遥感信息指标的提取方法

利用遥感的手段来研究城市现象是一种快速有效的方法，一般来说使用这种方法首先需要从遥感图像中提取一些定量描述城市的统计指标。本文根据EJ．Heikkila对模糊城市系统理论的描述，首先分析了提取描述该模糊城市系统的指标困难之所在，然后提出一种基于数学形态学的逐步侵蚀算法，来解决模糊城市系统中遥感图像在像素级精度中“城市用地”概念难于理解和计算的问题，并在VCA．0 下编程实现了这种算法，提取出了描述模糊城市的三个遥感信息指标。     

The System Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Rock Slopes1

Abstract The principal of preferred plane analysis is a new research view and model of rock slope engineering geology. It advocates that the rock slope stability, boundary conditions and failure model are controlled by preferred planes. Therefore, the problem of slope stability evaluation can be converted into the search for preferred planes and determination of preferred separating bodies. The organic combination of the deterministic model and the indeterministic model can be realized by applying the systems engineering principle and the research model and method of reliability analysis in the quantitative evaluation and prediction of rock slope stability. Finally, the paper presents the case studies of slopes of the Yangtze Gorge Project and the Ma'anshan openpit mine.     

利用MODIS和ASAR资料估算青藏高原念青唐古拉山脉地区冰雪范围及厚度

利用可见光和微波卫星遥感资料分析了青藏高原念青唐古拉山脉地区冰雪范围和厚度的季节变化.结果表明:青藏高原念青唐古拉山脉地区冰雪范围的季节变化非常明显,2003年4月上旬、5月中旬、7月下旬和9月下旬的冰雪范围分别占选定研究区域的28.9%、69.9%、11.6%和14.7%.在选定的西布冰川区域,由微波遥感得到的冰雪厚度季节变化也非常明显,5月份厚度的数值最大,7月份最小.由于主动微波观测受地面高程、地形和夏季冰雪融化等因素的影响比较大,主动微波遥感在大面积估算冰雪厚度还有一定困难,有待将来作进一步的深入研究.     

Evidence for a 55-50 ka (early Wisconsin) glaciation of the Cordilleran ice sheet, Yukon Territory, Canada

Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be ages on boulders of 54-51 ka (n = 4) on a penultimate Cordilleran ice sheet (CIS) drift confirm that Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 (early Wisconsin) glaciation was extensive in parts of Yukon Territory, the first confirmed evidence in the Canadian Cordillera. We name the glaciation inferred from the mapped and dated drift the Gladstone. These results are in apparent contrast to the MIS 6 (Illinoian) age of the penultimate Reid glaciation to the east in central Yukon but are equivalent to exposure ages on MIS 4 drift in Alaska. Contrasting penultimate ice extents in Yukon requires that different source areas of the northern CIS in Yukon responded differently to climatic forcing during glaciations. The variation in glacier extent for different source areas likely relates to variation in precipitation during glaciation, as the northern CIS was a precipitation-limited system. Causes for a variation in precipitation remain unclear but likely involve the style of precipitation delivery over the St. Elias Mountains possibly related to variations in the Aleutian low.     

基于等效地球半径和地形的电磁波覆盖范围分析

针对电磁波覆盖范围分析的研究现状,文章研究了计算和分析相对简便的等效地球半径法:介绍了等效地球半径的定义及确定方法,探讨了基于等效地球半径和地形的电磁波覆盖范围分析方法,并基于投影原理分析了等效地球与实际地球的投影,实现了电磁波覆盖范围的高效分析及结果的精确可视化。     

鲁甸、景谷、康定地震预测的原理、方法及其意义

继中长期预测了芦山地震之后,笔者中期预测了鲁甸、景谷和康定地震。例如,鲁甸地震的预测震级为7级左右或6.5级以上(实为里氏6.5级),地点为北纬26°~29°、东经101.5°~105°(实际震中北纬27.1°,东经103.3°),发震时间可能是2014年5月至2015年5月(实际为2014年8月3日)。本文总结了鲁甸、景谷、康定地震和陆内地震热流体物理综合预测的原理、方法和步骤;阐明了在开放复杂地球系统多级物质循环热构造背景下,大陆地壳非均匀流动("热河")过程中热能的源、汇、释过程与热灾害链及其地震之间的关系;提出了根据热灾害链时空结构和活动"热河"地震空区相结合进行长期和中期地震预测,与根据热流体直接和间接前兆异常开展立体监测和短临地震预测有机结合的新思路。根据当前热灾害链的演变规律和异动"热河"地震空区分布,进一步分析了西南和华北地震的发展形势,强调华北(特别是东北)的震情极为严峻,短临地震监测和预测已刻不容缓。     

2007和2012年北极最小海冰范围空间分布不同的原因分析

Satellite records show the minimum Arctic sea ice extents(SIEs) were observed in the Septembers of 2007 and2012, but the spatial distributions of sea ice concentration reduction in these two years were quite different.Atmospheric circulation pattern and the upper-ocean state in summer were investigated to explain the difference.By employing the ice-temperature and ice-specific humidity(SH) positive feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean, this paper shows that in 2007 and 2012 the higher surface air temperature(SAT) and sea level pressure(SLP)accompanied by more surface SH and higher sea surface temperature(SST), as a consequence, the strengthened poleward wind was favorable for melting summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years. SAT was the dominant factor influencing the distribution of Arctic sea ice melting. The correlation coefficient is –0.84 between SAT anomalies in summer and the Arctic SIE anomalies in autumn. The increase SAT in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012 corresponded to a quicker melting of sea ice in the Arctic. The SLP and related wind were promoting factors connected with SAT. Strengthening poleward winds brought warm moist air to the Arctic and accelerated the melting of sea ice in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012. Associated with the rising air temperature, the higher surface SH and SST also played a positive role in reducing summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years, which form two positive feedbacks mechanism.