地震短临综合预报方法的研究

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用     

Numerical analysis of the symmetric methods

Aimed at the initial value problem of the particular second-order ordinary differential equations,y =f(x, y), the symmetric methods (Quinlan and Tremaine, 1990) and our methods (Xu and Zhang, 1994) have been compared in detail by integrating the artificial earth satellite orbits in this paper. In the end, we point out clearly that the integral accuracy of numerical integration of the satellite orbits by applying our methods is obviously higher than that by applying the same order formula of the symmetric methods when the integration time-interval is not greater than 12000 periods.     

Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

Discrete numerical modelling of rockfill dams

The aim of this study is to obtain quantitative information on the behaviour of rockfill used in embankment dams, and particularly on the influence of block breakage on the displacement field, from a numerical analysis using the Distinct element method. A methodology is set up to define the resistance of the 2D particles so that the same probability of breaking blocks may be reproduced as in a 3D material. The model uses the discrete element code PFC^2D (Itasca Consulting Group Inc., PFC2D (Particle Flow Code in Two Dimensions), Version 3.0, 2002) and considers breakable clusters of 2D balls. The different parameters are determined from experimental data obtained from laboratory tests performed on rock blocks. The model is validated by comparing the results of the simulation of shearing tests with actual triaxial tests on rockfill material published in the literature. The numerical analysis of block crushing in an actual dam is proposed in the last part of this paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of electrical resistivity methods for detecting subsurface fresh and saline water and delineating their interfacial configuration: a case study of the eastern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan

The alluvial aquifer is the primary source of groundwater along the eastern Dead Sea shoreline, Jordan. Over the last 20 years, salinity has risen in some existing wells and several new wells have encountered brackish water in areas thought to contain fresh water. A good linear correlation exists between the water resistivity and the chloride concentration of groundwater and shows that the salinity is the most important factor controlling resistivity. Two-dimensional electrical tomography (ET) integrated with geoelectrical soundings were employed to delineate different water-bearing formations and the configuration of the interface between them. The present hydrological system and the related brines and interfaces are controlled by the Dead Sea base level, presently at 410 m b.s.l. Resistivity measurements show a dominant trend of decreasing resistivity (thus increasing salinity) with depth and westward towards the Dead Sea. Accordingly, three zones with different resistivity values were detected, corresponding to three different water-bearing formations: (1) strata saturated with fresh to slightly brackish groundwater; (2) a transition zone of brine mixed with fresh to brackish groundwater; (3) a water-bearing formation containing Dead Sea brine. In addition, a low resistivity unit containing brine was detected above the 1955 Dead Sea base level, which was interpreted as having remained unflushed by infiltrating rain.     

The place of individuals in the politics of scale

Conceptualizations and re-conceptualizations of scale have been powerful tools for explaining spatial processes that transcend traditionally-bounded territories. Examining the role of individuals within a politics of scale can do even more to explain multi-scalar conflicts. This paper does so by examining struggles over airport expansion in the US, showing how an understanding of the various roles of individuals in the politics of scale – as sites of multiple scales, as actors constituting other scales, and as scales in and of themselves – better explains multi-scalar conflicts and offers more opportunities for resolving them.     

Branding the design metropole: the case of Montréal, Canada

As part of a broader process of inter-urban competition, city governments have increasingly sought to 'position' themselves as centres of creativity. In these branding initiatives, culture is viewed as a tool of urban regeneration and economic development. Our paper examines the case of Commerce Design Montréal, an annual design competition run by the City of Montréal, which aims to brand Montréal as a centre of design. Commerce Design Montréal is an example of a 'fast' policy initiated by the state, but carried out by business owners and citizens. As such, it represents a downloading of the responsibility for economic development to the private or individual scale and adopts only a partial view of the varied actors and uses that are implicated in the design process. The paper considers the opportunities and challenges that this model presents for promoting design as a form of urban regeneration in a neo-liberal context.