北京山区泥石流灾害预警方法研究

北京山区泥石流灾害较为频繁,总体以暴雨型沟谷泥石流为主,受地形、地貌、地质、降雨以及松散物类型等因素的影响比较明显。在调查分析北京山区泥石流灾害发育特征的基础上,从泥石流的形成和启动条件入手,对泥石流灾害的预警方法进行研究与探讨。     

南平市红星滑坡泥石流特征及成因

该滑坡泥石流特征为,流域面积小,流程短,规模小,以坡面型为主,多由滑坡崩塌转化而来,发生频率低,突发性强,危害大。文章揭示在植被覆盖的花岗岩地区,持续强降雨引发群发性浅层土质滑坡,在斜坡微凹处或小沟谷,易转化成泥石流,形成灾害链。对该类型滑坡泥石流特征及成因进行分析,为福建省乃至全国同类型滑坡-泥石流的防治提供经验。     

四川大光包-黄洞子沟特大泥石流基本特征、成因及危险性评价

2013年7月8~10日四川省由于普降暴雨,发生多起泥石流、滑坡等地质灾害。在野外调查的基础上,对大光包-黄洞子沟特大泥石流形成原因进行分析,对未来发展趋势做出预测和危险性评价。调查结果表明:1大光包-黄洞子沟泥石流属于典型的沟谷型泥石流,可分为形成区-流通区-堆积区。2本次泥石流形成原因为体积高达1×108 m3以上的松散的大光包滑坡堆积体提供物源;极端的降雨气候直接启动松散堆积物形成泥石流;地形条件有利于泥石流侵蚀、搬运和堆积,为典型的滑坡-碎屑流-泥石流型,且仍处于活跃期,并在今后会有加强的趋势。3经过对大光包-黄洞子沟泥石流进行危险度评价可知:该泥石流危险度为0.482,属于中度危险泥石流。     

都江堰市龙池镇黄央沟泥石流特征与防治工程效果分析

黄央沟位于"5.12"汶川地震的极重灾区四川省都江堰市龙池镇,地震使沟内山体发生大规模的滑坡和崩塌,其为泥石流的形成提供了丰富的松散固体物质。地震后黄央沟泥石流十分活跃,2010年8月13日、8月18日和2013年7月9日均暴发了泥石流,造成了严重的经济损失。笔者通过对黄央沟泥石流灾害现场进行实地调查,详细分析了黄央沟泥石流的形成条件和发育特征,并对已有防治工程效果进行了分析和探讨。针对防治工程存在的问题和黄央沟泥石流的特点,建议在沟道下游和堆积区修建排导沟,使泥石流顺畅排入龙溪河;采取工程和生物措施来稳定沟道内的崩滑堆积体和不稳定斜坡,减少泥石流物源;沟口公路采用高架桥跨越方式通过泥石流堆积扇。该研究结果可为强震区泥石流灾害的防治提供参考。     

甘肃省泥石流发育特征、成因分析及其危害

甘肃省是我国泥石流地质灾害最为严重的4大省份之一。据统计,全省发育有泥石流沟6 260条,这些泥石流沟大部分集中在东部地区,河西地区较少。泥石流强烈发育的陇南、甘南山区,地势高差多在1 000m以上,山坡坡度≥30°。区内地质构造复杂,地震活动频繁,广泛分布黄土、泥岩、千枚岩、页岩等软弱易滑岩土体,为泥石流发育提供了必要的地形条件和岩土条件,降雨和地震及人类活动是诱发因素。长期以来,频繁发生的泥石流地质灾害已给甘肃人民的生命财产和工农业生产建设带来了严重威胁和危害,造成约3 715人死亡,直接经济损失几十亿。其中,2010年8月8日,舟曲发生的特大泥石流地质灾害震惊世界,泥石流地质灾害已严重困扰和和制约着甘肃省的国民经济发展和广大人民群众的正常生活。因此,应通过科学规划人类活动,采取必要的工程措施制约泥石流地质灾害的发生,减轻泥石流地质灾害造成的损失。     

高轨空间碎片的观测模拟

对高轨空间碎片进行了观测模拟。在观测模拟中，分别选取南京和云南两个观测站；采用2种跟踪方式：跟踪恒星和跟踪卫星；对于同一地理经度上的同步卫星进行了观测；提供了发现新目标的方法；并给出了新目标的初轨。这为我国空间碎片的数据库的建立作了有益的尝试，对于卫星和航天器的飞行安全具有特别重要的意义。     

Paraglacial response of steep,sediment‐mantled slopes to post‐‘Little Ice Age’ glacier recession in the central Swiss Alps

This research assesses the morphological consequences of recent (post‐‘Little Ice Age’) paraglacial reworking of valley‐side sediment mantles in the European Alps. It aims to identify the extent and conditioning factors of slope adjustment at sites in the Swiss Alps, model the temporal pattern, and assess the rates of sediment reworking involved. Gully systems have cut into steep, high‐level lateral moraines, and debris cones have accumulated downslope. Debris flow is the dominant agent of sediment transfer. Factors controlling the extent of this activity include moraine slope gradient, relief and moisture availability. Gullies appear to have reached their maximum dimensions within ca. 50 yr of deglaciation, after which gully relief is reduced by removal of inter‐gully slopes and gully infilling (within 80–140 yr). On the most recently deglaciated terrain, minimum erosion rates average ca. 95 mm yr^?1 since gully initiation, greatly exceeding ‘normal’ erosion rates in other environments. Mean annual accumulation of a single debris cone since ice retreat was calculated to be ca. 30 mm yr^?1. Implications of these findings are applied to patterns of paraglacial sediment‐mantled slope adjustment, conceptualising paraglacial landscape response in terms of a sediment release exhaustion model, and paraglacial landform succession. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A terrestrial record of Last Interglacial climate preserved by voluminous debris avalanche inundation in Taranaki,New Zealand

At Airedale Reef, western North Island, New Zealand, a ca. 4 m thick volcanogenic debris avalanche deposit has facilitated the preservation of an enveloping sequence of peats with interbedded andesitic tephras spanning marine isotope (MIS) 5. The sequence closely overlies a wave‐cut terrace correlated to MIS 5e and, in turn, is overlain by andic beds with tephra interbeds including the Rotoehu and Kawakawa tephras deposited during early MIS 3 and mid‐MIS 2, respectively. Pollen analysis of the organic sequence shows a coherent pattern of fluctuating climate for the Last Interglacial–Last Glacial transition that corresponds with marine isotope stratigraphy and supports the contention that orbital variations were a primary factor in late Quaternary southern mid‐latitude climate change. A five‐stage subdivision of MIS 5 is clearly recognised, with marine isotope substage (MISS) 5b drier than MISS 5d, and the cooling transition from 5a to MIS 4 also may have been comparatively dry and characterised by natural fire, perhaps associated with volcanism. Several other examples of volcanic impact on vegetation and the landscape are evident. The Airedale Reef sequence exhibits strong similarities with fragmentary MIS 5 pollen records preserved elsewhere in New Zealand and enables the proxy record of southern mid‐latitude climatic variability during the Last Interglacial–Glacial cycle to be extended. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川县绵虒镇板子沟“8·20”大型泥石流堵河特征及危害性预测

汶川地震后,板子沟曾发生过多次大规模泥石流,尤其是2019年“8·20”泥石流对沟口的道路桥梁以及村寨造成了严重的破坏,将主河道向对岸严重挤压,今后仍存在较大堵河的风险。文章在野外调查以及对泥石流基本特征和形成条件综合分析的基础上,分析了堵河特征,计算了不同频率下泥石流的堵河参数,并预测了各频率下溃决洪水对绵虒镇可能产生的影响。计算结果表明,频率为2％、5％和10％的泥石流造成岷江堵塞的可能性较小,假设发生堵河事件,绵虒镇也不会受到溃坝洪水的危害。频率为1％的泥石流很可能造成主河堵塞。体积约57.38×104 m3的泥石流物质可以到达岷江,形成高度约为51.61 m的堰塞坝。在主河洪水的作用下,堰塞坝发生溃坝,溃坝洪水的峰值流量为5 935.49 m3/s,到达绵虒镇后降至2 312.25 m3/s。由于相应的洪水深度（4.00 m）大于防护堤的高度（3.50 m）,因此溃坝洪水很可能会对绵虒镇防护堤附近民房造成破坏。为今后大型泥石流堵河特征的分析,以及溃决洪水对下游城镇可能造成的影响提供了参考。     

狭陡型泥石流成灾特征与防治对策研究——以阿坝州金川县刘家沟泥石流为例

刘家沟位于四川省阿坝州金川县,是一条狭陡型高频泥石流沟,每年雨季,降雨激发泥石流灾害链。本文在野外调查和实地勘测的基础上,分析认为,受汶川MS8.0地震扰动,刘家沟形成流通区单位面积上松散固体物质达98.11×10⁴ m³,在409.8‰的平均纵坡降下,泥石流活动频率明显增强,泥石流沿程放大效应明显,最终形成了降雨+径流侵蚀-滑坡-堰塞体-堰塞体溃决-增大的泥石流-堵河形成堰塞湖-卡撒沟中、下游损害的灾害链。提出采用格宾石笼进行固坡护床,结合拦挡坝拦粗排细的作用,根据保护对象设置防护堤,优化排导槽与主河交汇条件的综合治理措施,可为小流域高频狭陡型泥石流灾害的治理提供参考。