地市级新天气预报业务流程的开发研究

在借鉴和吸收省内外先进经验的基础上，结合地市气象台预报工作实际，对现在9210工程业务环境下，地市级天气预报业务流程进行深入细致的分析研究，建立起以数值分析预报产品为基础，以人机交互Micaps系统为平台，以提高预报业务效率为目的，综合运用各类信息和多种预报方法制作预报的新天气预报业务流程，并投入实际业务运行，收到了良好的效果。     

从地球系统科学角度浅析中国地貌若干问题研究的新进展

以地球系统中各圈层的相互作用为主线,分析总结了我国沙漠地貌过程、流水地貌过程、冰川地貌过程及风沙地貌过程等领域研究的部分进展。由于我国沙漠地理位置的特殊性,其形成和演变与岩石圈构造变动即青藏高原隆升有着紧密的联系,所以,对我国沙漠形成、演变的研究能为探讨青藏高原隆升历史提供重要佐证。近30年来,有关我国沙漠形成时代的认识更新较快。新的沉积记录显示,我国西北地区的沙漠在中新世时就已经出现了,但沙漠沙丘大规模扩展可能是在中更新世才开始的。既使在晚更新世以来,我国沙漠地区的气候也有过明显波动、沙漠地貌的特征也发生过显著变化。沙漠通过为沙尘暴提供物源,对全球变化产生驱动作用。从地表过程来看,风沙地貌的形成演变不仅受风力作用,而且受流水、湖泊等多种地貌动力过程的影响,地貌类型是各种动力过程共同作用的缩影。古冰川地貌曾是最早发现的第四纪气候变化的证据。随着新的测年技术的出现,学术界对我国第四纪古冰川地貌演化过程有了较系统、全面的认识。流水地貌过程应该是地球上作用区域最广的一种地貌动力过程,对流水地貌过程的认识目前正在向微观和宏观深入。     

北部湾6.1,6.2级地震序列的环境应力场

应用Ｐ波初动半周期直接测定环境剪应力值的方法,测定了北部湾６．１,６．２级地震前后中小地震的环境剪应力值τ０,由此分析了北部湾地震过程的环境应力场特征。结果表明,北部湾６．１级地震后平均剪应力值较高,达１８ＭＰａ左右;６．２级地震及两次５级余震后剪应力值下降很快,降至目前的６ＭＰａ左右。在此基础上对北部湾地震活动趋势作了初步分析。     

Effects of elevated air temperatures on soil thermal and hydrologic processes in the active layer in an alpine meadow ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In this study,effects of elevated air temperatures on thermal and hydrologic process of the shallow soil in the active layer were investigated. Open-top chambers(OTCs)were utilized to increase air temperatures 1-2℃ in OTC-1 and 3-5℃ in OTC-2 in the alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau.Results show that the annual air temperatures under OTC-1 and OTC-2 were 1.21℃ and 3.62℃ higher than the Control,respectively.The entirely-frozen period of shallow soil in the active layer was shortened and the fully thawed period was prolonged with temperature increase.The maximum penetration depth and duration of the negative isotherm during the entirely-frozen period decreased, and soil freezing was retarded in the local scope of the soil profile when temperature increased.Meanwhile, the positive isotherm during the fully-thawed period increased,and the soil thawing was accelerated.Soil moisture under different manipulations decreased with the temperature increase at the same depth. During the early freezing period and the early fully- thawed period,the maximum soil moisture under the Control manipulation was at 0.2 m deep,whereas under OTC-1 and OTC-2 manipulations,the maximum soil moisture were at 0.4-0.5 m deep. These results indicate that elevated temperatures led to a decrease of the moisture in the surface soil.The coupled relationship between soil temperature and moisture was significantly affected by the temperature increase.During the freezing and thawing processes, the soil temperature and moisture under different manipulations fit the regression model given by the equationθV=a/{1+exp[b(TS+c)]}+d.     

燕山构造带中段早白垩世盆地特征

燕山构造带中段主要包含3个早白垩世盆地,即滦平盆地、凤山盆地、石人沟盆地.通过对盆地的沉积相分析、古水流的恢复以及盆地构造-沉积演化研究,认为燕山构造带中段早白垩世盆地发育分为三个阶段,即早期火山喷发阶段、中期强烈断陷阶段和晚期填平阶段.早期发育强烈的火山作用,形成以酸性火山岩为主的张家口组;中期盆地主体呈半地堑状,受单一边界主断层控制,盆地相互独立,盆地边缘以冲积扇砾岩和扇三角洲砂岩、砾岩沉积为主,盆地中心为湖泊细粒沉积.古流向和物源恢复结果证明,盆地沉积物主体来自于北部和/或西部的变质岩基底.盆地构造沉降和沉积充填过程主要受边界正断层的控制,断层下盘基底岩石的抬升与盆地边界正断层活动相关,从而成为盆地主要的物源区.     

长江中下游河道冲淤演变的防洪效应

近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少,河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整,河道蓄泄关系发生变化,对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上,对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下,遇1954年洪水,长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明,未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷,河道槽蓄容积增加,相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大,三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大,总拦蓄洪量减小,长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小,但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。     

利用多通道的光学超晶格产生对, 纠缠的连续变量频率梳

提出了一种实验上可行的,通过光学谐振腔内多通道参量下转换过程直接产生多色连续变量对纠缠频率梳的方案,腔内增益介质为周期极化的准相位匹配的钽酸锂(LiTaO₃)一维光学超晶格.通过连续变量纠缠判据证明了每个通道中产生的每对参量光之间是相互纠缠的.讨论了对纠缠频率梳的纠缠特性随系统参数的变化.此方案在量子通信网络中有着一定的应用前景.     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

黑龙江省东部残留盆地群构造演化特征及其油气勘探意义

由牡丹江断裂、敦-密断裂、依-舒断裂和大和镇断裂所控制的中新生代盆地群是东北地区重要的合煤、含油气盆地。该盆地群的中新生代成盆过程以脆性伸展为主，发育断陷或裂陷层序，而坳陷层序(热沉降层序)不发育。古构造发育史、盆地沉降史和伸展史研究表明，研究区盆地群普遍经历了早期快速沉降(断陷期)-盆地衰减、抬升剥蚀-后期快速沉降-稳定衰减(或抬升剥蚀)。区内的成盆与构造演化过程分为涉及全区的中生代陆缘断陷期(J3-K1)、第一构造反转期(K2-E1)、新生代陆内裂陷期(E2-E3)和第二构造反转期(N)4个阶段，反映了两大盆地构造演化旋回。构造演化特征一方面为油气的多期成藏提供了盆地动力学条件，另一方面改造或破坏动、静态地质要素的时空分布及其匹配关系。     

基于SPCA和AHP联合方法的滦河流域生态环境脆弱性变化规律分析

基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度概念模型评价体系,选取表征地形、地表、气象、土壤、植被及社会经济因子的15项多系统评价指标,应用空间主成分分析（SPCA）与层次分析（AHP）联合方法,对滦河流域1985年、1995年和2005年3期生态环境进行脆弱性评价,并进行量化分级,获得流域生态环境脆弱性变化规律和成因机制。结果表明：流域整体脆弱性等级有减小趋势,潜在脆弱区域面积逐渐增大,而重度脆弱区域明显减小;西北山地和冀东沿海地区变化较为剧烈;人类活动已经取代自然条件,成为影响滦河流域生态系统的关键因子;流域人口的快速增长、气候条件的改变以及土地资源的不合理利用是区域脆弱性变化的主要驱动力。