基于逾渗模型的泥页岩导电机理模拟

泥页岩储层储集空间以纳米/微米级的微孔隙和微裂缝为主,结构复杂,加之干酪根和黏土矿物含量较高,并含有一定量的黄铁矿等导电矿物,造成储层导电机理异于常规储层,岩电实验I-S_w曲线呈现非线性特征,阿尔奇公式等传统评价模型适用性较差.针对上述问题,根据实际岩心实验资料,结合随机算法建立三维逾渗模型并通过数值模拟和超松弛迭代法进行求解,分析泥页岩储层非阿尔奇性产生原因以及泥页岩储层电性的影响因素及规律.模拟结果显示,岩石孔隙拓扑结构和形状尺寸、矿物组成以及地层水电阻率等因素均对泥页岩储层电阻率产生不同程度的影响,通过改变上述因素的设定值,可以建立储层电阻率与各因素的单相关关系,并据此建立修正模型,实现储层含水饱和度的计算.该模型在四川某页岩气产区取得了较好的效果,具有良好的应用前景,为利用逾渗模型模拟方法解决油田勘探开发中的复杂问题提供了新思路.     

云南禄劝地震震源处的应力场求解

采用前人反演得到的云南禄劝地震的地震矩张量和主震及部分余震的震源机制解,以该主震震中为中心在全球CMT目录中查询到的部分地震的震源机制解,先将地震矩张量转化为震源机制解,运用精细网格搜索反演方法将震源机制解反演得到禄劝地震和其周边地区的应力场。对反演得出的两个应力场进行差异性对比研究,结果表明禄劝地震震源处主压应力场为NNW—SSE向,主压应力与主张应力相当,周边地区的主压应力方向为NW—SE,断层破裂面倾角大,以走滑正断层为主,主压应力占优势。但是由于云南地区主要由NNW—SSE和NW—SE方向的主压应力控制,并受本文所选的周边地区的经纬度及所处地区的控制,所以该区域在总体上受NW—SE方向的压应力控制,局部地区受NNW—SSE方向的压应力控制。该结果可以用来分析该地区的地震地质背景和断层形成条件,对地球动力环境的研究有一定的意义。     

Focal Mechanism and Focal Depth of the May 22, 2016 MS4.6 Earthquake in Chaoyang, Liaoning

An earthquake with M_S4.6 occurred at 17:08 p.m., May 22, 2016 in Chaoyang County, Liaoning Province. We used the P-wave first motion method, TDMT method, and CAP method to determine the focal mechanisms and the PTD method and sPn-Pn method to determine the focal depth. The focal mechanism results of the three methods are consistent. The depth results of the CAP method, PTD method and sPn-Pn method are close. We used the double difference location method to relocate earthquakes in 2009-2016, and obtained the strikes and dip angles of the small earthquake distributions with the help of simulated annealing algorithm and gauss Newton algorithm fitting. According to the focal mechanism results, the depth results, the characteristics of small earthquake distributions and the structural characteristics of the source area, the seismogenic fault strike is NEE and the main pressure force direction is NNW. The earthquake focal mechanism is for a normal fault type with a little left-lateral strike slip motion.     

Measuring hydrological connectivity inside a soil by low field nuclear magnetic resonance relaxometry

Hydrological connectivity inside the soil is related to the spatial patterns inside the soil (i.e., the structural connectivity). This, in turn, is directly associated with the physical and the chemical processes at a molecular level (i.e., the functional connectivity). Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxometry can be successfully applied to reveal both structural and functional components of soil hydrological connectivity. In the present study, the low field NMR relaxometry was applied on water suspended soils sampled at the upstream‐ and downstream‐end of three different length plots. Also the sediments collected from the storage tanks at the end of each plot were water suspended and monitored by NMR relaxometry. The results from the NMR investigations were elaborated by using a mathematical approach in order to quantify both the functional and structural connectivity components. In particular, following integration of the T₁ distribution curve, an S‐shaped curve was obtained. It revealed two plateaus corresponding to the shortest (low component) and the longest (high component) intervals of relaxation times, respectively. According to relaxometry theory, the two T₁ intervals, associated to the different plateaus, were attributed to micro and macro soil pores, respectively. The two T₁ intervals were used to define a functional connectivity index, while the central part of the S‐shaped distribution was used to define a structural connectivity index. Here we provide the physical meaning of the our mathematical approach, thereby revealing that functional connectivity index increases with plot length, as a result of a selective eroded particle transport. Moreover, the relationship structural connectivity index versus plot length resulted quasi‐independent of grainsize distribution, whereas the values of the structural connectivity index for the sediment samples resulted lower than those obtained for the corresponding soils.     

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 10⁹ m³) and Alavian (6 × 10⁷ m³). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.     

福建仙游震群序列发震构造分析研究

福建仙游地区自2010年8月开始出现地震序列活动,2012年地震活动水平有所提高,2013年以来地震活动水平进一步提高,ML3.0以上地震集中活跃。福建数字化地震台网对这些地震进行了较完整的监测,记录到丰富的观测资料。通过利用P、S波到时数据对ML≥1.0地震序列进行重新定位,发现地震序列空间位置和震源深度呈现出不同的时段性分布特征。同时利用福建数字化地震台网记录到的波形资料,采用"剪切-粘贴"法,获取了ML≥3.5的震源机制解和最佳震源深度。通过震群序列活动特征、震源位置分布、震源区断层活动分布以及震源机制解特征综合判断认为:仙游震群序列为库水下渗促使断裂滑动引起的构造地震,属于水库诱发型构造型地震,发震构造为穿过库区的NW向石苍断裂。     

On the importance of soil moisture in calibration of rainfall–runoff models: two case studies

Streamflow modelling results from the GR4H and PDM hydrological models were evaluated in two Australian sub-catchments, using (1) calibration to streamflow and (2) joint-calibration to streamflow and soil moisture. Soil moisture storage in the models was evaluated against soil moisture observations from field measurements. The PDM had the best performance in terms of both streamflow and soil moisture estimations during the calibration period, but was outperformed by GR4H during validation. It was also shown that the soil moisture estimation was improved significantly by joint-calibration for the case where streamflow and soil moisture estimations were poor. In other cases, addition of the soil moisture constraint did not degrade the results. Consequently, it is recommended that GR4H be used, in preference to the PDM, in the foothills of the Murrumbidgee catchment or other Australian catchments with semi-arid to sub-humid climate, and that soil moisture data be used in the calibration process.     

陕西地区小微震震源机制研究

小微震事件的震源机制是区域应力场及诸多地球动力学研究的基础资料。陕西地区为多个地震带的交汇区,近些年积累了丰富的小微震波形资料。运用新近发展的适用于求解小微震震源机制的广义极性振幅技术(GPAT),结合陕西2015地壳速度模型,求解陕西测震台网2011年4月至2015年12月间记录的121次ML1.5~3.5事件的震源机制。反演结果表明:(1)以上事件的震源机制大部分为走滑及正断类型,其比例占64.5%;逆断型机制占22.3%。(2)反演震源机制得到的震源深度与定位深度具有良好的一致性;矩震级与近震震级间存在差别,且这种差别随事件的变小而增大。(3)对比渭河断陷带相关研究成果,验证了该区域震源机制以正断型为主,具有拉张应力状态。     

2017年九寨沟7.0级地震前不同级别地震空区的演化过程分析

结合传统地震学方法与数字地震学方法,回顾总结了日常分析预报中针对九寨沟7.0级地震开展的相关工作,梳理总结了地震前提出的甘东南地震异常信息,进一步讨论了九寨沟地震前中期、短期及临震异常特征。通过分析九寨沟7.0级地震之前区域范围内不同震级活动图像,发现甘青川交界地区5级空区在震前向震中一侧收缩、4级地震超长平静458天、3级空区在震前4天被打破的现象,同时发现,震中附近区域震源机制一致性较高,反映了震源区的高应力水平。     

Time-averaged sub-layer concentration profiles in oscillatory sheet flows

Although thin on the order of several to tens of millimeters, sheet flows normally comprise a lower pick-up sub-layer and an upper contact-load sub-layer, separated at the bed level (z = 0). The time-averaged concentration profile in the pick-up sub-layer shows a ‘convex upward’ curvature, but ‘concave upward’ shape characterizes the time-averaged concentration profile in the contact-load sub-layer. The time-dependent concentration in the contact-load sub-layer is approximately in-phase with the free stream flow velocity, whereas it is nearly in anti-phase with the free stream flow velocity in the pick-up sub-layer. Two distinct analytical expressions of the time-averaged concentration profiles for the respective sub-layers are proposed. The expressions are validated with detailed observation datasets collected in the Groβer Wellenkanal (GWK) prototype wave flume in Hannover, Germany. The agreement between the predicted and the measured values is excellent. Interparticle collisions in the pick-up sub-layer and convective lifting processes associated with vortex shedding in the contact-load sub-layer are considered responsible for the opposite curvatures and in-phase/anti-phase concentration variations. Both transitional boundary and reference concentration are also elaborated.