Oil and gas development exposure and conservation scenarios for Greater sage-grouse: Combining spatially explicit modeling with GIS visualization provides critical information for management decisions

During the last quarter-century, global demand for energy has increased by more than 60%, and a similar increase is anticipated to occur by 2030 (Raymond, Deming, & Nichols, 2007). In the U.S., oil and gas development is projected to continue across western states within sage-grouse habitat. Greater sage-grouse, recently a candidate species for protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), have well documented negative responses to oil and gas disturbance. In this study, we create spatially-explicit oil and gas future development scenarios, baseline and high, and link them to sage-grouse population and habitat maps to quantify future exposure risk within Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) sage-grouse management zones (MZ) I and II. We then analyze recent land use decisions from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) along with enacted policy from the State of Wyoming to estimate how these management actions might minimize the exposure risk of sage-grouse to oil and gas development into the future. Our results show that BLM and Wyoming conservation plans could reduce the exposure of sage-grouse to oil and gas development from 15-27% to 11–17% (31–37% reduction) in MZ I and from 15-27% to 5–9% (64–68% reduction) in MZ II. Our estimates of exposure to future oil and gas development, and conservation measures designed to ameliorate those threats, represent the upper and lower extents of potential impacts within scenarios. Our work demonstrates how spatial modeling and GIS visualization can be used by managers to assess likely outcomes of conservation decisions.     

An assessment of land cover change as a source of information for conservation planning in the Vhembe Biosphere Reserve

Determining changes in land use/land cover (LULCC) can be used to assess and monitor habitat loss as one of the five global priority causes of biodiversity loss. In South Africa, two national land-cover (NLC) datasets have been developed from satellite imagery obtained in circa 1990 and 2013/2014. The Vhembe Biosphere Reserve (VBR), designated in 2009, is located in the north of the Limpopo Province in South Africa and has a surface area of 30,457 km². The aim of biosphere reserves is to provide a landscape-scale framework for conservation and sustainable development of an area. The area within a biosphere reserve is prioritised by designating it into one of three zones 1) Core, 2) Buffer, and 3) Transitional Zones. Two national parks and six provincial reserves (PAs) are the current and form part of the proposed updated core areas (pCAs) of the VBR. Intensity analyses was used to assess LULCC in the VBR. The pCAs cover 39.7% of the surface area of the VBR. The PAs cover 39.7% and only 15.8% of the surface area of the pCAs and VBR respectively. Based on the NLC 2013/2014 a majority of the VBR, pCAs and PAs consisted of indigenous vegetation dominated by Woodland/Open bush, Grassland, and Thicket/Dense bush. The extent of transformed land in the VBR declined from 1990 to 2013 by 1697.7 km². The total amount of change and mean annual change in the VBR was 53.1% and 2.31% respectively. The overexploitation of fuel wood by rural communities in rural areas of the VBR, was partly responsible for the targeted loss of Woodland/Open bush to Thicket/Dense bush and Grasslands. The unquantified presence of novel vegetation and alien invasive plants means that the NLC 1990 and 2013/2014 overestimates the quantity and distribution of the remaining indigenous vegetation in the VBR. In order to address this the distribution of alien and indigenous invasive plant species in the VBR needs to be determined and used to update future NLCs. Assuming a worse-case-scenario of all the coal deposits in the VBR, including the Kruger National Park, being mined it would amount to 24.7% of the surface area of the VBR. Only 6.8% of the area of all the coal deposits in the VBR was transformed with 93.2% currently remaining untransformed. It is recommended that transformation of indigenous vegetation to one of the seven transformed land cover categories and more specifically from coal mining should be restricted to the VBR's Transition Zones.     

油气无机成因学说的新进展

介绍了油气无机成因学说的新发展,主要是目前在西方、俄罗斯等影响较大的关于无机生油气的几个学派以及在中国的一些学派。其中之一是Ｇｏｌｄ氏的地幔脱气理论,之二是费－托地质合成理论。     

珠江口盆地恩平凹陷文昌组浊积体含油气性分析

岩性油气藏是目前油气勘探开发的重要方向和热点研究领域。珠江口盆地恩平凹陷古近系文昌组发育一厚300余米、面积约140 km2的浊积砂体,其上下岩性均为深湖—半深湖相暗色细粒沉积物。文昌组是该盆地最主要的烃源岩,具有形成岩性油气藏的物质条件。以地震资料为主,结合地质和测井等综合技术,对该浊积体的含油气性进行了综合分析。研究表明,浊积体具有低频振幅能量增强、高频振幅能量降低的特点;同时AVO异常,在浊积体下部表现出同相轴下拉现象。EP17 3 1井钻遇该浊积体边缘,在浊积砂体深度（4 552～4 642 m）出现异常高压。这些特点都是含油气的表现。因此,该浊积砂体是有利的勘探目标,也是该区获得油气勘探开发重大突破的希望所在。     

济阳坳陷古近纪沟鞭藻分子化石的分布与控制因素

济阳坳陷古近纪沟鞭藻化石十分丰富,沟鞭藻为有机质富集层的形成作出了重要贡献。三芳甲藻甾烷和甲藻甾烷是沟鞭藻及其祖先在古代沉积物中两种重要的存在形式,并且它们几乎专一性地由沟鞭藻提供。研究发现,沟鞭藻的不同属种,德弗兰藻属、多刺甲藻属、渤海藻类等,均可以提供丰富的三芳甲藻甾烷和甲藻甾烷,但是三芳甲藻甾烷和甲藻甾烷对沉积环境的变化具有不同的响应。在淡水、半咸水、咸水等不同水介质条件下,三芳甲藻甾烷指数稳定分布在0.50～0.96之间,高丰度的三芳甲藻甾烷与地层中丰富的沟鞭藻化石相一致,因而三芳甲藻甾烷是指示沟鞭藻输入的有效分子化石。甲藻甾烷的丰度与古沉积环境存在密切关系,高盐环境有利于甲藻甾烷的形成和保存,随着盐度的降低甲藻甾烷指数在0.04～0.74这样一个较大的范围内变化,其发育程度与有机质沉降过程中和成岩作用早期遭受的微生物降解作用有关,强烈的生物降解不利于甲藻甾烷的保存。     

东营凹陷民丰地区天然气生成机理与化学动力学研究

民丰地区天然气存在源岩热解和原油裂解成因的争议。本文采用高压釜封闭体系对该区烃源岩和原油样品分别进行了热模拟实验,从烃类气体生成过程、气态烃与部分单体烃生成动力学特征讨论了二者的生气机理,认为原油裂解比源岩热解生气活化能高30～40 kJ/mol,原油比源岩生气需要更高的热力学条件。模拟实验证实,成熟阶段源岩热解气与原油裂解气相比,以环烷烃和芳烃相对含量低为特征,与民丰地区产出的天然气组成更接近,据此认为该区天然气主要为源岩热解成因。     

生态保护红线成效评估框架与指标方法

生态保护红线是在自然保护区、重点生态功能区、风景名胜区、森林公园等诸多区域生态管理制度不断实践基础上,面对中国国土开发和生态保护的复杂关系,继承和创新提出的一种新型区域生态管控制度,已经成为推动国家生态文明建设的重大战略。如何科学评估生态保护红线保护成效,服务于生态保护红线综合管理和保障区域生态安全,成为普遍关注的热点问题之一。针对已有的区域生态保护成效评估案例的不足,基于划定生态保护红线是为保障国家和区域生态安全的基本认知,围绕着生态保护红线“生态功能不降低、面积不减少、性质不改变”的管控目标,以生态保护红线对区域生态系统保护作用为主要出发点,提出生态保护成效评估框架和指标方法。生态保护成效评估以生态系统类型构成和生态系统服务功能为内容主线,通过多维度时空尺度拓展,耦合分析生态保护红线内外、实施前后的生态状况变化,综合评估生态保护红线对保障区域生态安全的贡献和改善区域生态状况的作用。进而,可以关联分析可能引起生态保护红线生态状况变化的管控政策、制度和其他间接驱动因素,评估政策实施成效评估。实证上选择海南省生态保护红线和广东省严格控制区为案例进行了讨论。     

Quantitative Analysis of Central Asian Countries’ Energy Security and Its Political Influence Factors

Central Asian countries are located in the heartland of the Eurasian Continent. Their geographic location puts their energy flows under tremendous geopolitical pressure from the countries along their limited number of pipelines. With energy trade data from the United Nations Comtrade Statistics Database in the period from 2005 to 2016, this paper evaluates energy security of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (exporter) and Kyrgyzstan (importer) using three standards: correlativeness, diversity, and the impact of international relations. It concludes that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’s oil markets are balanced in terms of correlation and diversification, and thus less subject to geopolitical pressure. Turkmenistan’s gas markets, on the other hand, still have tremendous exposure to geopolitical risks for lack of diversification. Kyrgyzstan, as an energy importer, could rely on a few neighboring countries for energy supply. We found out that the three Central Asian countries’ energy security is largely determined by four political factors: the relationship with Russia, the new “great game” in Eurasia, the rise of China, and Central Asian regional geopolitical configuration.     

基于鲁棒自适应策略的燃气轮机系统控制器设计

太阳能、风能和潮汐能等可再生能源的发电系统,具有间歇性发电的特性.因此,具有快速响应、发电效率高的燃气轮机发电系统,能够在可再生能源发电间歇出现时充当替代系统,不仅稳固电网的负荷能力,还有助于推动可再生能源的发展.由于燃气轮机是一个模型包含未知的复杂非线性系统,目前针对转速环节主要采取传统PID控制技术.然而,实际运行中系统工况发生变化时,控制器参数不能随着这些变化做出相应的调整,使得控制效果欠佳,执行器故障的出现也可能导致系统无法正常工作.因而,本文针对单轴燃气轮机的孤岛发电模式,结合燃气轮机系统特性,基于反步法的设计思路,引入不依赖于系统模型的鲁棒自适应控制策略,并加入容错控制和Nussbaum函数构造转速控制器.在控制器设计过程中融合动态面方法,解决高阶系统中反步法引起的计算爆炸问题.最后,通过仿真,验证了控制器的可靠性.     

The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.