京津冀地区光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益评估

京津冀地区作为中国重要的能源消费基地,近年在产业转型与发展中对清洁能源的需求不断增加。光伏发电是中国“十四五”期间加速能源结构转型,早日实现碳中和目标的关键举措与重要抓手。本文以京津冀为研究区,通过构建“地形—气象—成本”光伏开发适宜性综合评价指标体系,计算了光伏开发适宜性指数,刻画出京津冀地区2018年光伏开发适宜性的空间格局特征,进而定量评估不同开发适宜性情景下光伏发电潜力与减排效益。研究表明：① 京津冀地区光伏开发适宜区占到区域总面积的22%,一般适宜区面积最广,“燕山—太行山”一线是适宜区与不适宜区的主要分界线,各类适宜区主要分布在承德、张家口和保定市3个市。 ② 京津冀地区光伏发电发展潜力巨大,开发非常适宜区和较适宜区的年发电潜力是2018年京津冀地区电力消耗的3倍。③ 光伏发电节能减排效果显著。在将非常适宜区和较适宜区全部开发情景下碳减排量为京津冀2018年排放量的47%。④ 土地利用限制、大型输电网络和储能系统是制约光伏发展的主要因素。总体来看,虽然大规模光伏开发仍存在一定的限制条件与技术瓶颈,但在全球气候变化加剧和社会经济发展进入“低碳脱碳”新常态的背景下,京津冀地区的大规模光伏开发仍是助力区域早日实现碳中和目标、优化能源结构和提升人民福祉的重要途径。     

Simulation of probability distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis

Random variable simulation has been applied to many applications in hydrological modelling, flood risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, etc. However, computer codes for simulation of distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis are not available in most software libraries. This paper presents a frequency‐factor‐based method for random number generation of five distributions (normal, log–normal, extreme‐value type I, Pearson type III and log‐Pearson type III) commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis. The proposed method is shown to produce random numbers of desired distributions through three means of validation: (1) graphical comparison of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and empirical CDFs derived from generated data; (2) properties of estimated parameters; (3) type I error of goodness‐of‐fit test. An advantage of the method is that it does not require CDF inversion, and frequency factors of the five commonly used distributions involves only the standard normal deviate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subsurface lateral flow generation in aspen and conifer‐dominated hillslopes of a first order catchment in northern Utah

Mountain headwater catchments in the semi‐arid Intermountain West are important sources of surface water because these high elevations receive more precipitation than neighboring lowlands. This study examined subsurface runoff in two hillslopes, one aspen dominated, the other conifer dominated, adjacent to a first order stream in snow‐driven northern Utah. Snow accumulation, soil moisture, trenchflow and streamflow were examined in hillslopes and their adjacent stream. Snow water equivalents (SWEs) were greater under aspen stands compared to conifer, the difference increasing with higher annual precipitation. Semi‐variograms of shallow spatial soil moisture patterns and transects of continuous soil moisture showed no increase in soil moisture downslope, suggesting the absence of subsurface flow in shallow (～12 cm) soil layers of either vegetation type. However, a clear threshold relationship between soil moisture and streamflow indicated hillslope–stream connectivity, deeper within the soil profile. Subsurface flow was detected at ～50 cm depth, which was sustained for longer in the conifer hillslope. Soil profiles under the two vegetation types varied, with deep aspen soils having greater water storage capacity than shallow rocky conifer soils. Though SWEs were less under the conifers, the soil profile had less water storage capacity and produced more subsurface lateral flow during the spring snowmelt. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于智能体的自适应入侵检测系统

提出了一种基于智能体技术的自适应入侵检测系统体系结构,将智能体技术和自适应模型生成技术应用于入侵检测系统中.智能体技术的应用解决了传统的集中式入侵检测系统的弊病,将任务处理和数据分布到网络各个结点上,通过各种智能体来协作完成入侵检测任务,充分利用网络和主机资源.而智能体与自适应模型生成技术相结合,采用遗传算法建立准确的数据模型,使得入侵检测系统能够自动配置和更新不同环境下的入侵检测模型,能够通过自我学习、自我改进来提高系统的入侵检测能力和适应能力.     

渤海湾周缘高温地热异常特征及深部热结构分析

渤海湾周缘高温地热异常区是华北重要的地热资源区,研究其浅层高温地热异常及深层高温地热结构,是解决中国东部高温地热勘查开发瓶颈的重要基础,对加快构建东部现代能源体系、推进“双碳”目标进程具有重要的科学意义。利用最新的中国大陆岩石圈速度模型USTClitho2.0和航磁资料,在大地热流资料约束下,本文计算了渤海湾周缘浅层与深层高温热结构,结果表明:该区居里面平均深度20.8km,居里温度420℃,中、上地壳高温热结构与居里面起伏形态密切相关。上地壳生热率随深度增大而递减,反映了放射性生热元素向上迁移、在浅层富集的垂向分异特征。Moho面温度在600～800℃之间,岩石圈底界面1300℃等温面深度在66.3～97.5 km之间,平均值为76.8 km。依据USTClitho2.0模型Vp、Vs速度结构,本文修正了前人的地壳分层结构及上地壳生热率,计算了研究区内全部91个大地热流点的壳幔热流比,结果表明:Qc/Q=56.4%、Qm/Q=43.6%, Qc/Q>Qm/Q,显示该区为“热壳”结构。前人认为此区是“冷壳热幔”型热结构,本文的计算结果修正了前人的认识,指出上地壳层热流在地表总热流...     

渤海湾盆地黄骅坳陷石炭系—二叠系烃源岩生烃演化及与中—新生代构造演化的响应关系

渤海湾盆地石炭系—二叠系为烃源岩的古生界潜山内幕型原生油气藏认识程度低,勘探难度大,明确石炭系—二叠系烃源岩生烃演化过程及与中—新生代构造演化的响应关系对内幕型原生油气藏勘探具有重要意义。笔者等基于三维地震资料、典型井实测镜质体反射率、流体包裹体等数据资料,进一步采用构造解析、潜山埋藏史分析以及盆地生烃模拟等技术手段,探讨了渤海湾盆地黄骅坳陷中—新生代构造运动及对石炭系—二叠系烃源岩生烃演化的控制作用,明确了生烃时期及有利生烃范围。研究表明,黄骅坳陷中—新生代构造活动经历了“两期裂陷,两期抬升”的四个演化阶段,形成多种类型的埋藏史,构造运动引起的古地温变化使南北地区烃源岩进行差异了生烃演化,裂陷建造作用促进地温上升,有利于有机质生烃,挤压改造作用抑制地温上升,有机质生烃中止。乌马营潜山及歧北潜山具有3次生烃阶段,生烃期为早—中三叠纪、早白垩纪、古近纪,港北潜山具有两次生烃阶段,生烃期为早—中三叠纪、古近纪。黄骅坳陷内早期(即早—中三叠纪)生烃范围局限,晚期(即古近纪)生烃最有利,乌马营地区及歧北地区为原生油气藏有利勘探区。     

Process and Mechanisms of Deep Fluid Effects on Hydrocarbon Generation and Pore Space in Shale: A Case Study from the Mesoproterozoic Xiamaling Formation in the Zhaojiashan Section

Heat carried by deep fluid might greatly affect hydrocarbon generation and pore space in shale. Dyke intrusion carrying high levels of heat may be a means by which to explore the influence of deep fluid on shale reservoirs. This study evaluates hydrocarbon generation and analyzed the evolution of shale storage space in the third member of the Xiamaling Formation in the Zhaojiashan section, Hebei Province, based on experimental data such as TOC, SEM, VRo, low-temperature N2 adsorption and high-pressure mercury injection. The results show that the dyke intrusion reduced the shale TOC content drastically―by up to 77%―and also induced instantaneous hydrocarbon generation over a range about 1.4 times the thickness of the intrusion. Furthermore, the dyke intrusion might transform organic pores in surrounding shales into inorganic pores. There were two shale porosity peaks: one appeared when VRo = 2.0%, caused by the increase of organic pores as thermal maturity increased, the other occurred when the VRo value was between 3% and 4%, caused by the increase of inorganic mineral pores. It can be concluded that dyke intrusion can be an effective tool with which to study how deep fluid affects instantaneous hydrocarbon generation and pore space in shale.     

影响海相烃源岩热解生烃过程的地质条件

热解生烃实验是研究油气生成机理与定量评价烃源岩生烃潜力的重要方法.烃源岩热解生烃模拟结果不仅与温度、压力和时间等因素有关,而且与地层孔隙水及压实成岩作用等地质因素密切相关.采用高压流体和高压釜(低压水蒸气)两种生烃热模拟方法对低成熟海相二叠统大隆组(P₂d)黑色泥岩进行了热解生烃实验模拟.对比分析两组实验结果表明地层孔隙热解实验有利于液态油的生成,不利于液态油向气态烃的转化,并极大地提高了干酪根的生油气潜力,显示了高压液态水、流体压力和孔隙空间等地质因素对烃源岩中有机质热成熟生烃反应的重要影响.这种影响可能与高压液态水的近临界特性有关,近临界特性地层水的参与改变了干酪根热力生烃反应的物理化学行为.推断在实际地质温压(100~200 ℃,30~120 MPa)条件下,烃源岩孔隙中的地层水是一种相对低温高压液态水,具有水的近临界物理化学特性,因此高压流体生烃热模拟实验与实际地层情况更为接近,能更有效地评价烃源岩生烃潜力.      

鄱阳湖区风电场风电功率预报研究

风力发电作为一种无污染可再生的能源,已逐渐成为许多国家能源战略可持续发展的重要组成部分。风电场风能预报是风力发电开发中的关键技术问题。为研究鄱阳湖区风力发电预报技术,采用中尺度模式WRF和微尺度模块CALMET对鄱阳湖区长岭风电场进行了200 m水平分辨率风能预报,并根据长岭机组理论功率曲线表和实测数据拟合出理论和实际发电机组功率曲线模型及平均有功功率与发电量模型。根据WRF+CALMET模式预报风速及建立的发电机组功率曲线模型和平均有功功率与发电量模型,预报了长岭风电场发电量。结果表明:长岭风电场23座风机逐小时风速预报值与观测值相关系数为0.42~0.61,均方根误差为2.59~3.68,相对误差为-13.7%~17.4%;对整个风场,预报风速与观测风速的相关系数为0.55,均方根误差为2.8,相对误差为-4.79%。实测发电量值高于预报值,平均偏大39.7 kW,相对误差为-12.6%,预报值与实测值相关性较好,相关系数达到0.52。总体来说,根据中尺度数值模式预报的风速结合风功率、发电量模型预测出的发电量与实测值较为接近,但各月差异性较大。     

CHANGES IN U.S. NATIONAL MOBILITY LEVELS*

This paper investigates the decline in the national mobility level that occurred during 1970-1983. The effects of generation size are discussed in detail; bigger generations may move at lower rates because of the increased competition for jobs and housing. The changing age composition of the population will imply further mobility declines during coming decades if age-specific mobility rates remain constant. A consideration of anticipated changes in the size of the young adult cohort suggests that the national mobility rate may increase slightly over the next decade, before beginning a relatively modest decline during 1995-2040.