Parameter estimation for multiple post-wildfire hydrologic models

Predictions of post-wildfire flooding and debris flows are needed, typically with short lead times. Measurements of soil-hydraulic properties necessary for model parameterization are, however, seldom available. This study quantified soil-hydraulic properties, soil-water retention, and selected soil physical properties within the perimeter of the 2017 Thomas Fire in California. The Thomas Fire burn scar produced catastrophic debris flows in January 2018, highlighting the need for improved prediction capability. Soil-hydraulic properties were also indirectly estimated using relations tied to soil-water retention. These measurements and estimates are examined in the context of parameterizing post-wildfire hydrologic models. Tension infiltrometer measurements showed significant decreases (p < .05) in field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_fs) and sorptivity (S) in burned areas relative to unburned areas. Wildfire effects on soil water-retention were dominated by significant decreases in saturated soil-water content (θ_S). The van Genuchten parameters α, N, and residual water content did not show significant wildfire effects. The impacts of the wildfire on hydraulic and physical soil properties were greatest in the top 1 cm, emphasizing that measurements of post-fire soil properties should focus on the near-surface. Reductions in K_fs, θ_s, and soil-water retention in burned soils were attributed to fire-induced decreases in soil structure evidenced by increases in dry bulk density. Sorptivity reductions in burned soils were attributed to increases in soil-water repellency. Rapid post-fire assessments of flash flood and debris flow hazards using physically-based hydrologic models are facilitated by similarities between K_fs, S, and the Green–Ampt wetting front potential (ψ_f) with measurements at other southern CA burned sites. We suggest that ratios of burned to unburned K_fs (0.37), S (0.36), and ψ_f (0.66) could be used to scale unburned values for model parameterization. Alternatively, typical burned values (K_fs = 20 mm hr⁻¹; S = 6 mm hr^−0.5; ψ_f = 1.6 mm) could be used for model parameterization.     

The impact of flow discharge on the hydraulic characteristics of headcut erosion processes in the gully region of the Loess Plateau

Headcut erosion is associated with major hydraulic changes induced by the gully head of concentrated flow. However, the variation in the hydraulic characteristics of the headcut erosion process is still not clear in the gully region of the Loess Plateau. A series of rainfall combined scouring experiments (flow discharges ranging from 3.6 to 7.2 m³ hr⁻¹, with 0.8 mm min⁻¹ rainfall intensity) were conducted on experimental plots to clarify the variation in the hydraulic parameters induced by gully head and erosion processes under different flow discharges. The results showed that concentrated flows in the catchment area and gully bed were turbulent (Reynolds number ranging from 1,876 to 6,693) and transformed between supercritical and subcritical (Froude number ranging from 0.96 to 3.73). The hydraulic parameters, such as the flow velocity, Reynolds number, shear stress, stream power, Darcy–Weisbach friction factor, and unit stream power in the catchment area were 0.45–0.59 m s⁻¹, 2086–6693, 1.96–5.33 Pa, 0.89–2.86 W m⁻², 0.08–0.16, and 0.023–0.031 m s⁻¹, respectively. When the concentrated flows dropped from the gully head, the hydraulic parameters in the gully bed decreased by 3.39–26.07%, 1.49–29.99%, 65.19–67.14%, 67.25–74.96%, 28.53–61.31%, and 67.82–77.14%, respectively, which contributed to the flow energy consumption at the gully head. As flow discharge increased, Reynolds number, shear stress, and stream power increased, while flow velocity, Froude number, unit stream power, and Darcy–Weisbach friction factor did not. The flow energy consumption at the gully head was 9.66–10.13, 13.25–13.74, 15.68–16.41, and 19.28–20.25 J s⁻¹, respectively, under different flow discharges and accounted for 60.58–68.50% of the flow energy consumption of the experimental plots. Generally, the sediment discharges increased rapidly at the initial stage, then increased slowly, and finally reached a steady state condition, which showed a significant declining logarithmic trend with experimental duration (P<.01) and increased with increasing flow discharge. Accordingly, the flow energy consumption was significantly correlated with the sediment yield. These findings could improve our understanding of the hydraulic properties and flow energy characteristics of headcut erosion.     

Rapid simulation of multiple radially growing hydraulic fractures using an energy‐based approach

The goal of hydraulic fracturing stimulation of horizontal wells is typically to generate uniform, simultaneously growing hydraulic fractures from 3 to 6 initiation/entry sites that are spaced within a certain interval of the wellbore comprising a so‐called stage. Because of the stress interaction among growing hydraulic fractures, however, it is hard to attain simultaneous growth of all hydraulic fractures. While models have been proven useful for devising mitigation strategies of these so‐called stress‐shadow effects, the required simulations are so computationally expensive that optimization is possible only in the simplest cases. Here, we present an approximate (energy‐based) model capable of running an entire simulation in 1–2s, which is about one million times faster than the benchmark model. The approach is built on asymptotic solutions to approximate growth of radial hydraulic fractures, a far field approximation for the stress shadow interactions among growing hydraulic fractures, and coupling the effect of the stress shadow to fracture growth via a global energy balance equation. We show very close agreement in predictions of the lengths of each fracture in the array between the approximate model and the benchmark model, thus verifying that the new approximate model is useful for optimization of hydraulic fracture design. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of aquifer properties and the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge and abstraction on sustainable yields in semi‐arid regions

This paper aims to contribute to understanding the importance of four factors on the determination of sustainable yields: (i) aquifer properties; (ii) temporal distribution of recharge; (iii) temporal distribution of groundwater pumping; and (iv) spatial distribution of pumping wells. It is important to comprehend how the present‐day and future vulnerability of groundwater systems to pumping activities depend on these critical factors and what the risks are of considering sustainable yield as a fixed percentage of mean annual recharge (MAR). A numerical model of the Querença–Silves aquifer in Portugal is used to develop hypothetical scenarios with which these factors are studied. Results demonstrate the aquifer properties, particularly the storage coefficient, have an important role in determining the resilience of an aquifer and therefore to which degree it is dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of abstraction and recharge, as well as the occurrence of extreme events. Sustainable yields are determined for the developed scenarios based on specific criteria rather than a fraction of MAR. Under simplified current recharge and abstraction conditions, the sustainable yield was determined at approximately 73% of MAR or 76 million m³. When considering a concentration of rainfall in time, as predicted by climate scenarios for the region, sustainable yield could drop to ca 70% of MAR. However, a more even distribution of pumping volumes throughout the year could increase this value. The location of the pumping wells is seen to affect the distribution of hydraulic heads in the aquifer, albeit without significant changes in sustainable yield. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conceptualization of the hydrogeological system of some sedimentary aquifers in Savelugu–Nanton and surrounding areas,Northern Ghana

Groundwater resources play a pivotal role in the rural water delivery system in Ghana. The hydrogeological system of Middle Voltaian terrain was simulated using available data on hydraulic heads and boundary conditions. The objective was to characterize the general groundwater flow pattern and provide local estimates of the distribution of hydraulic conductivity and recharge fields. The results suggest a predominant NE–SW flow direction, which ties in with the general regional structural trend and indicates that the hydrogeological conditions of the rocks are controlled by structural entities created in the wake of fracturing and/or weathering of the rocks whose primary permeabilities are considerably reduced because of high compaction and low‐grade metamorphism. Calibrated hydraulic conductivities range between 1.90 and 10.81 m/d. The spatial distribution appears to reflect the intensity of fracturing and/or weathering of the rock and the proportion of the clay fraction of the weathered zone. Vertical groundwater recharge has been estimated to range between 0.3% and 4.1% of the annual rainfall. This recharge rate is quite low and reflects the imperviousness of the thick overburden because of high clay content in some places and high compaction in others. Despite this apparently low recharge rate, groundwater resources potential in the area appear to be high, and increased abstraction from existing abstraction wells by up to 50% does not appear to register significant effects on groundwater budgets at the simulated recharge rates. This suggests that the well yields are much lower than the potential of the aquifer system. The apparently low yields might be associated with poor well development and the choice of inappropriate well completion materials. This study recommends a monitoring system to be developed for a much more regional groundwater flow simulation under transient conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

薄互层水力裂缝垂向扩展控制因素试验研究

新疆油田某地区油藏的储隔层岩性组合复杂,呈现突出的薄互层产状特征,研究合、分压判断条件有利于提高压裂效率,增强储层动用程度与压后改造效果。水力裂缝在薄互层中的穿层与裂缝扩展行为受薄互层地质特征与压裂施工参数的影响。基于此,开展了薄互层物理模型压裂试验,研究界面胶结、岩层分布、岩层厚度、压裂液黏度与注液排量对薄互层中水力裂缝垂向扩展的影响分析。试验结果表明：薄互层的地层特征界面胶结与岩层分布是水力裂缝垂向扩展的主要控制因素,界面胶结强度对裂缝垂向扩展行为的影响强于岩层分布;由于弱胶结界面的存在,水力裂缝垂向扩展穿层时可发生方向偏转,抑制裂缝垂向扩展;提高压裂液黏度与注液排量有利于薄互层中水力裂缝的穿层垂向扩展。     

煤岩组合体峰前能量分布公式推导及试验

冲击地压一定是在能量驱使下发生的,为探索引发冲击地压的能量在煤岩系统中的积聚层位,构建了煤岩组合体力学模型,推导了煤岩组合体峰前能量分布公式,对细砂岩−煤（fine sandstone-coal,简称FC）、粗砂岩−煤（gritstone-coal,简称GC）、细砂岩−煤−粗砂岩（fine sandstone-coal-gritstone,简称FCG）3种组合体开展5种加载速率下的能量积聚规律试验,分析了组合体破坏特征、力学特性及能量积聚规律。试验表明：（1）在0.001 mm/s加载速率下,组合体峰前能量主要以原生裂纹的扩展、贯通的形式缓慢耗散,属于塑性完全破坏;在0.1 mm/s加载速率下,组合体峰前能量主要以局部弹射破坏的形式快速释放,属于脆性不完全破坏。（2）组合体的抗压强度、弹性模量、峰前能量、冲击能量指数与加载速率呈对数关系。随着加载速率增大,组合体抗压强度、弹性模量、冲击能量指数增幅逐渐减小,峰前能量增长率呈现低－高－低的趋势。（3）随着加载速率增加,煤组分储能增多,能量占比增大。在0.001～0.010 mm/s加载速率下,煤组分积聚能量增加较快;在0.010～0.100 mm/s加载速率下,煤组分积聚能量增加较慢。（4）相同加载速率下,煤组分能量占比顺序：FC组合体＞FCG组合体＞GC组合体。（5）组合体中煤组分能量占比均大于50%,煤组分是能量积聚的主要载体。相同应力条件下,软弱岩层能量积聚能力强于坚硬岩层,更易积聚能量。研究结果可为确定冲击地压能量积聚层位和释能减冲工作提供参考。     

循环荷载下含层理页岩渗透特性试验研究

深入理解含层理以及含宏观裂缝页岩在循环荷载扰动下渗透率的演化规律,对于页岩气隧道安全施工而言意义重大。利用GCTS岩石力学测试系统对含轴向层理及轴向宏观裂缝页岩试件在循环轴向应力和循环围压下渗透率的演化规律开展相关试验研究。结果表明：含轴向层理页岩试件渗透率随轴向应力的加载和卸载基本不发生明显改变,而随围压增加以负指数的形式下降,随围压的减小以指数的形式增加;含宏观裂缝页岩试件的渗透率随轴向应力的加、卸载近似以线性形式降低和增加,而随围压的增大以负指数形式下降,随围压的减小以指数形式增加;含轴向裂缝页岩试件的渗透率相较含轴向层理页岩试件而言有大幅提升,其二者比值约为9倍左右;页岩试件对围压的敏感性约为轴向应力的26倍;试件渗透率几乎不随轴向应力循环次数发生明显改变,而随围压循环次数的增加呈负指数式下降,且其降幅主要集中在第1循环阶段内。研究成果可对页岩气隧道的安全施工提供一定的理论支撑。     

水力裂缝穿越非连续面扩展时的断裂过程研究

非连续面发育是非常规油气储层的显著地质特征之一,水力裂缝能否穿越非连续面扩展会关系到压裂的改造效果。为研究水力裂缝穿越非连续面扩展时断裂过程区（fracture process zone,简称FPZ）发育特征,采用自主设计的可视化压裂试验装置对含预制摩擦界面的砂岩平板试件开展水力压裂试验。基于数字图像相关法实时监测了水力裂缝正交穿越界面扩展过程中的位移及应变场特征。试验结果表明,水力裂缝穿越界面扩展之前,断裂过程区已经开始跨越界面发育;裂缝能否穿越界面扩展在FPZ的初始发育阶段已经注定,不受FPZ内应力软化过程影响。基于Renshaw-Pollard准则建立了考虑FPZ边界范围的裂缝穿越非连续面扩展准则,并通过前人及文中试验数据进行了可靠性验证。相比而言,改进准则更准确地考虑了裂缝前端线弹性断裂力学的适用范围。研究发现FPZ长宽比对裂缝穿越界面扩展准则有显著影响,相同条件下,FPZ长宽比越大,裂缝正交穿越界面扩展所需要的摩擦系数下限值越小。     

偏压固结下碱渣土循环累积孔压及强度弱化规律研究

碱渣是氨碱法制纯碱时排出的固体废弃物,经适当的加固处理后作为工程填垫土可以有效解决占地和污染问题。碱渣土的力学性质不稳定,在循环荷载作用下强度会发生明显弱化,导致承载力大幅降低。以天津港地区回填碱渣土为研究对象,开展了系列动三轴试验,以固结围压、动应力比和偏压固结比为试验变量,研究了不同应力组合下碱渣土中循环累积孔压发展规律以及循环后碱渣土不排水强度演化规律。基于等效超固结模型,引入强度弱化系数β,建立了考虑偏压固结比和动应力比影响的碱渣土循环强度弱化模型;引入强度提升系数α,建立了考虑偏压固结过程和循环加载过程耦合影响的碱渣土强度演化模型,并通过试验数据验证了模型的正确性。