病态半参数回归模型的岭估计求解

针对半参数回归模型求解过程可能出现的法方程病态问题,提出了用岭估计原则改进半参数模型的求解。通过模拟算例将岭估计解法和其他方法进行了比较,结果表明,岭估计解法能较好地解决半参数回归模型求解过程中的病态问题。     

Geochemistry of the lava and its implications in Musicians Seamounts

Chemical and isotopic data of the lava samples dredged in the southern Bach Ridge and the northern Italian Ridge of the Musicians Seamounts province, northeast of Hawaii. Although most of the samples analyzed are generally altered, a few are fresh. The latter exhibits similar geochemical and isotopic characteristics to normal MORB （Mid-Ocean Ridge Basalts）. There are systematic geochemical trends from hotspot to mid-ocean ridge in the province. Incompatible element and isotopic variations suggest that the flow field had at least two distinct parental magmas, one with higher and one with lower MgO concentrations. The two parental magmas could be related by a magma mixing model. The major and trace element modeling shows that the two parental magmas could not have been produced by different degrees of melting of a homogeneous mantle source, but they are consistent with melting of a generally depleted mantle containing variable volumes of embedded enriched heterogeneity enriched interbeds.     

Origin of the Gas Hydrate and Free Gas in the Qilian Permafrost,Northwest China: Evidence from Molecular Composition and Carbon Isotopes

The Qilian permafrost of the South Qilian Basin (SQB) has become a research focus since gas hydrates were discovered in 2009.Although many works from different perspectives have been conducted in this area,the origin of gas from gas hydrate is still controversial.Molecular composition and carbon isotope of 190 samples related to gas hydrates collected from 11 boreholes allowed exploration of genetic type,thermal maturity, biodegradation,as well as gas-source correlation of alkane gases from gas hydrates and free gases.Results indicate that alkane gases biodegraded after the formation of natural gas.According to differences in carbon isotopes of methane and their congeners (CH4,C2H6,C3H8),the thermal maturity (vitrinite reflectance,VRo) of most alkane gases ranges from 0.6% to 1.5%,indicating a mature to high mature stage.The thermal maturity VRo of a small part of alkane gas (in boreholes DK5 and DK6) is higher than 1.3%,indicating a high mature stage.Alkane gases were mainly produced by secondary cracking,consisting of crude oil-cracking gases and wet gases cracking to dry gases.Genetic types of alkane gases are primarily oil-type gases generated from shales and mudstones in the upper Yaojie Formation of Jurassic,with less coal-type gases originated from the mudstones in the Triassic Galedesi Formation and the lower Yaojie Formation of Jurassic.Carbon dioxides associated with alkanes from gas hydrates and free gases indicate the thermal decomposition and biodegradation of organic matter.The origins of natural gases from gas hydrates and free gases shed light on the evaluation of petroleum resource potential,deeply buried sediments,and petroleum resource exploration in the SQB.     

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基于Neumann级数的有偏估计方法

针对病态最小二乘问题,提出基于Neumann级数的有偏估计方法。由该方法建立的有偏估计公式,包含现有的最小二乘估计、岭估计和广义岭估计公式,建立有偏估计和无偏估计的本质联系,并可以据此引申出一系列新的有偏估计形式。在这一系列的有偏估计中,存在着比岭估计或广义岭估计更接近于真值的解。以一个病态方程组为例对该方法进行验证表明,当观测向量中含有误差时,由最小二乘估计所得结果和真值误差较大,而各级有偏估计的结果和真值更加接近,且二级和三级有偏估计结果比相应的岭估计更接近于真值。     

多孔介质体系中甲烷水合物生成动力学的模拟实验

多孔介质中的水合物动力学研究由于对实验技术与设备的要求较高,在国内开展的工作相对较少。主要研究了等容等压、等容等温条件以及不同粒径范围的多孔介质中甲烷水合物生成动力学过程。结果表明,低温高压条件能够为甲烷水合物生成提供更大的驱动力,从而明显促进水合物生成。在粒径为250-355μm的天然海砂中,压力5 MPa时,1℃的反应釜温度可以使甲烷水合物较快生成;在粒径为180-250μm的天然海砂中,温度为2.5℃时,5 MPa的压力即可使水合物较容易生成。但粒径范围125-700μm的多孔介质对水合物生成没有明显的影响。     

强热带风暴"碧利斯"造成异常强降水的气候背景

利用大气环流特征量和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了强热带风暴"碧利斯"造成异常强降水的气候背景。结果表明,冬春季节西太平洋暖池海温偏高时,夏季副热带高压脊线活动偏北,影响中国的热带气旋个数偏多,2006年冬春季海温分布及夏季副高活动形势有利热带气旋影响中国。强热带风暴"碧利斯"登陆和西行时,大气环流高层辐散、低层辐合和热带辐合带的位置偏北、西南暖湿气流在华南有强的辐合等均有利中国南部地区气流辐合上升,使"碧利斯"登陆后低压环流仍能长时间维持,从而造成异常强降水。     

舟山群岛册子水道现代潮流沙脊的初步研究

Geopulse甚高分辨率浅地震剖面记录和水深测量结果显示,在舟山群岛册子水道北部东侧发育有一条现代潮流脊,宽度约1~1.2km,研究部分长度超过2km(沙脊两端超出研究海域),脊顶水深50~60m,外翼高20~25m,水深65~85m,内翼高约10m,水深50~70m;脊内层理发育,以向海倾斜为主,表明潮流脊是由岸向海方向堆积发育的。根据地震剖面记录特征和沉积环境,推断潮流脊以细砂和粉砂为主组成,来源于册子水道轴部晚更新世陆相地层的侵蚀物质;由落潮流向东南搬运,再由涨潮流向西北搬运,在潮流脊上沉积而成。潮流脊的发育可能与外钓山岛和舟山本岛在研究海域向西突出有关,造成册子水道显著缩窄、流速加大、底质变粗。     

冲绳海槽西侧陆坡及其邻区天然气水合物成藏构造特征

为了解特殊地质体与天然气水合物成藏构造特征之间的关系,作者以冲绳海槽西侧陆坡和槽底为例,利用地震资料和地球化学方法对该地区上新世和第四纪沉积物厚度、有机碳含量和断裂系统进行了分析。研究表明,在冲绳海槽西侧及槽底都发育了较厚的上新统和第四系沉积层,上新统厚度约为1000—1500m,第四系厚约为1000—3500m,其中海槽南段存在巨厚的第四系,而且冲绳海槽西侧陆坡沉积物中有机质含量高达0.75%—1.25%,并且沉积速率高达10—40cm/ka,有利于有机质的保存和转化。陆坡发育有与海槽走向一致的NE-SW向断裂系统,以及横切海槽的一系列NW-SE向水平错动扭性断裂系统,其中NE-SW向断层在海槽南段方向变为NEE-SWW,这些断裂系统为烃类气(流)体的运移创造了有利条件。因此,在冲绳海槽西侧陆坡发育的海底峡谷、滑塌体、断块隆脊、泥底辟等特殊地质体与天然气水合物的形成密切相关。     

Lipid Distribution in Marine Sediments from the Northern South China Sea and Association with Gas Hydrate

The distributions of lipids in surface and subsurface sediments from the northern South China Sea were determined. The n-alkanes were in bimodal distribution that is characterized by a centre at n-C16 –n-C20 with maximum at C18(or C19) and n-C27 –n-C31 as well as at C29(or C31). The short-chain alkanes suffered from significant losses due to their slow deposition in the water column, and their presence with a slight even carbon predominance in shallow seafloor sediments was ascribed mainly to the direct input from the benthos. The long-chain alkanes with odd predominance indicate transportion of terrigenous organic matter. Immature hopanoid biomarkers reflect the intense microbial activity for bacteria–derived organic matter and the gradual increase of maturity with burial depth. Abundant n-fatty acid methyl esters(n-FAMEs) that are in distributions coincident with fatty acids were detected in all samples. We proposed that the observed FAMEs originated from the methyl esterification of fatty acids; methanol production by methanotrophs and methanogenic archaea related to the anaerobic oxidation of methane, and sulfate reduction provided an O–methyl donor for methylation of fatty acids. The CH4 released from hydrate dissociation at oxygen isotope stage II of Cores ZD3 and ZS5, which had been confirmed by the occurrence of negative δ13C excursion and spherical pyrite aggregates, could have accelerated the above process and thus maximized the relative content of FAMEs at ZD3-2(400–420 cm depth) and ZS5-2(241–291 cm depth).