基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

地质雷达方法在上海市轨道交通明珠线工程中的应用

地质雷达方法在上海市轨道交通明珠线工程中的应用表明,此方法在探测地下障碍物中能依靠雷达图象识别其类型、材质、深度等,有利于快速、准确定位,有一定的优越性。     

环礁沉积体系的过程-产物关系: 勘察式模拟初探

海洋沉积体系的定量模拟可分为仿真和勘察式模拟,后者的目标是建立沉积特征的连续谱、凝练新的科学问题。本文提出一个勘察式模拟的方法论框架,即根据控制方程确定自变量的定义域,进而由模拟计算给出应变量的值域,并结合物质收支平衡原理和“圆台状环礁”几何模型,以此方法预估环礁及其海底阶地物质输运和堆积格局。环礁是珊瑚礁的独特类型,其礁盘区提供了礁体生长和礁外坡、海底阶地堆积的几乎全部物源。结果表明,环礁自身生长受控于生物碎屑生产,而海底阶地的范围和沉积速率不仅决定于离礁悬沙通量,而且受到环礁外水深和海盆环流的制约。悬沙输运和重力流过程形成常态沉降和水下滑坡的交替沉积。此模型所预测的环礁沉积体系高程-面积曲线与南海环礁的实际曲线相对照,可获得环礁演化的机制信息。模拟结果还提示了需进一步研究的科学问题,如环礁生长规模及其控制机制、环礁沉积体系中周期性沉积的时间尺度、环礁外坡由于珊瑚生长自组织机制形成的重力流事件与地震等极端事件的对比和机制识别、环礁群的海底阶地沉积记录多样性、海面变化对环礁演化的影响和沉积记录、环礁人居环境安全等。     

广义物质平衡计算法在沙南凹陷BZ油田滚动勘探开发中的应用

渤海湾盆地沙南凹陷BZ油田沙一段生屑云岩主力含油储层投产后,发现实际生产特征与初始地质认识吻合度差,部分区块可能具有增储上产的潜力。通过利用油田生产动态资料,主要包括压力、产量及PVT实验等数据,采用广义物质平衡计算法识别出A4井区滚动勘探潜力最大。在此基础上,精细刻画生屑云岩沉积期古地貌和古生态环境特征并结合生屑云岩发育规律,预测了A4井区生屑云岩储层新的空间展布范围。实际钻探结果证实了储层预测的准确性,新增探明储量近400万t,保障了BZ油田的可持续发展和投资效益。该套方案对国内海上相似地质条件油田的滚动勘探开发具有借鉴意义。     

基于遥感技术对黄河口水色与岸线季相变化特征研究

使用Landsat-5 TM 2004年11月24日与2005年5月13日黄河口遥感影像,配合准同期外业实测资料,进行黄河口水体水色物质叶绿素a与悬浮泥沙的动态反演与河口岸线解译.研究表明由于秋末与春初黄河上游来水物质含量的差异,上述悬浮指标值存在显著的季相差异.根据样值与光谱特征建立的反演模型得出的反演值与实测值有平均在0.85以上的相关关系,具有很好的反演效果.岸线解译成果表明,黄河口岸线演变迅速,在河流平枯水量时期仍然具有较强的变化,岸线推进尤以新河口附近显著.这表明,使用遥感手段是进行河口生态环境质量监测的有效手段,是进行岸线动态变化研究的一种基本技术支撑手段.     

Characterization of tar-like material and producible oil in Misoa C2 and C3 reservoir sands of the Area 2 South (Ceuta Field,Venezuela)

Here we characterized asphaltic oil occurrences in the Misoa C2 and C3 reservoirs within Area 2 South of the Ceuta Field (Lake Maracaibo Basin, NW Venezuela). To perform the geochemical and petrological characterization of the C2 and C3 sub-units, which cover an interval in which tar-like material was detected, we analyzed core (18) and cutting (123) samples using the Rock-Eval 6 technique in reservoir mode. Samples were studied under fluorescence light and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), showing the presence of two charges of oils and the relationships within silica cements and clay minerals. To evaluate vertical inter-reservoir communication and lateral intra-reservoir continuity, we also studied 12 oil samples from wells in Area 2 South. Biomarkers and isotopic signatures were examined using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). The results suggest that oil and core extracts belongs to a single family derived from two pulses of hydrocarbon generation from the La Luna source rock, which was deposited in a marine reducing environment. The oil samples are a mixture of a paleobiodegraded oil charge and a later fresh, more mature oil recharge. The geochemical analyses also evidence that the formation of heavy oil tar zones can be related to biodegradation and in-reservoir oil mixing, though other formation mechanisms for the tar are also feasible. Finally, the GC fingerprints of the oils are indicative of lateral reservoir continuities across the F-1 and F-2 faults and vertical communication between the Misoa C2 and C3 sub-units in Area 2 South, suggesting that tar occurrences do not act as permeability barriers within the two reservoirs studied.     

Appraisal of storm beach buffer width for cyclonic waves

The loss of beach sand from berm and dune due to high waves and surge is a universal phenomenon associated with sporadic storm activities. To protect the development in a coastal hazard zone, hard structures or coastal setback have been established in many countries around the world. In this paper, the requirement of a storm beach buffer, being a lesser extent landward comparing with the coastal setback to ensure the safety of infrastructures, is numerically assessed using the SBEACH model for three categories of wave conditions in terms of storm return period, median sand grain size, berm width, and design water level. Two of the key outputs from the numerical calculations, berm retreat and bar formation offshore, are then analysed, as well as beach profile change. After having performed a series of numerical studies on selected large wave tank (LWT) test results with monochromatic waves using SBEACH, we may conclude that: (1) Berm erosion increases and submerged bar develops further offshore as the storm return period increases for beach with a specific sand grain size, or as the sand grain reduces on a beach under the action of identical wave condition; (2) Higher storm waves yield a large bar to form quicker and subsequently cause wave breaking on the bar crest, which can reduce the wave energy and limit the extent of the eroding berm; (3) A larger buffer width is required for a beach comprising small sand grain, in order to effectively absorb storm wave energy; and (4) Empirical relationships can be tentatively proposed to estimate the storm beach buffer width, from the input of wave conditions and sediment grain size. These results would benefit a beach nourishment project for shore protection or design of a recreational beach.     

Geotechnical Hybrid Simulation to Investigate the Effects of the Hydraulic Conductivity on One-Dimensional Consolidation Settlement

Difficulties in the prediction of time-distribution of consolidation settlement will be introduced by using the Murayama test embankment case of Japan. In particular, it will be discussed why the prediction of consolidation rate is difficult in multi-layered soil with complex and variable mechanical properties like organic soil or peat. It can be inferred that uncertainties, which are embedded intricately in the consolidation problem as well as given ground condition, would be major causes for consolidation settlement. After that, the author focused on the movement of pore water under the various conditions of hydraulic conductivity in the soils, and how it can affect the time-distribution of the consolidation settlement. For the applied key methodology on the consolidation settlement problem, we propose the hybrid consolidation simulation controlling the movement of pore water with high accuracy and, finally, the aim of this article is to discuss the methodological approaches obtained by the study, including the basic concept and accurate movement of pore water under various conditions of soil layers and hydraulic conductivity.