Paleo-earthquake studies on the eastern section of the Kunlun fault

Introduction East Kunlun active fault is one of the largest sinistral slip fault zones in northern Tibetan Pla-teau. The fault tails primarily after the ancient eastern Kunlun suture zone, which was reactivatedby the northward subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate. The western end of thefault starts near the western flank of the Buxedaban peak in Qinghai Province. The fault then ex-tends eastwards through the Kusai Lake, Xidatan, Dongdatan, Alag Lake, Tuosuo Lak…     

Penny-shaped fractures revisited

All methods of seismic characterization of fractured reservoirs are based on effective media theories that relate geometrical and material properties of fractures and surrounding rock to the effective stiffnesses. In exploration seismology, the first-order theory of Hudson is the most popular. It describes the effective model caused by the presence of a single set of thin, aligned vertical fractures in otherwise isotropic rock. This model is known to be transversely isotropic with a horizontal symmetry axis (HTI). Following the theory, one can invert the effective anisotropy for the crack density and type of fluid infill of fractures, the quantities of great importance for reservoir appraisal and management.Here I compute effective media numerically using the finite element method. I deliberately construct models that contain a single set of vertical, ellipsoidal, non-intersecting and non-interconnected fractures to check validity of the first-order Hudson’s theory and establish the limits of its applicability. Contrary to conventional wisdom that Hudson’s results are accurate up to crack density e ≈ 0.1, I show that they consistently overestimate the magnitudes of all effective anisotropic coefficients ε^(V), δ^(V), and γ^(V). Accuracy of theoretically derived anisotropy depends on the type of fluid infill and typically deteriorates as e grows. While the theory gives | ε^(V)|, |δ^(V)|, |γ^(V)| and close to the upper bound of the corresponding numerically obtained values for randomly distributed liquid-filled fractures, theoretical predictions of ε^(V), δ^(V) are not supported by numerical computations when the cracks are dry. This happens primarily because the first-order Hudson’s theory makes no attempt to account for fracture interaction which contributes to the final result much stronger for gas- than for liquid-filled cracks. I find that Mori-Tanaka’s theory is superior to Hudson’s for all examined crack densities and both types of fluid infill.The paper was presented at the 11th International Workshop on Seismic Anisotropy (11IWSA) held in St. John’s, Canada in 2004.     

GIS中矢量与栅格数据模型比较

由于GIS软件的多样性，每种软件都有自己特定的数据模型，从数据结构上来说，矢量和栅格是地理信息系统中两种主要的空间数据结构。本文通过对栅格数据与矢量数据模型的应用比较．对于空间数据从需求分析，以满足对数据信息进行更改、更新、增加或者为了某种特定的需要。     

A multiphase approach for evaluating the horizontal and rocking impedances of pile group foundations

This paper advocates the use of a multiphase model, already developed for static or quasi‐static geotechnical engineering problems, for simulating the behaviour of piled raft foundations subject to horizontal as well as rocking dynamic solicitations. It is shown that such a model, implemented in a FEM code, yields appropriate predictions for the foundation impedance characteristics, provided that shear and bending effects in the piles are taken into account, thus corroborating the findings of the asymptotic homogenization theory. Besides, it is notably pointed out that such a multiphase‐based computational tool makes it possible to assess the dynamic behaviour of pile groups in a much quicker way than when using direct numerical simulations, which may face oversized problems when large pile groups are concerned. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ensemble prediction of regional droughts using climate inputs and the SVM–copula approach

In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elastic lateral dynamic impedance functions for a rigid cylindrical shell type foundation

Elastic lateral dynamic impedance functions are defined as the ratio of the lateral dynamic force/moment to the corresponding lateral displacement/rotation at the top ending of a foundation at very small strains. Elastic lateral dynamic impedance functions have a defining influence on the natural frequencies of offshore wind turbines supported on cylindrical shell type foundations, such as suction caissons, bucket foundations, and monopiles. This paper considers the coupled horizontal and rocking vibration of a cylindrical shell type foundation embedded in a fully saturated poroelastic seabed in contact with a seawater half‐space. The formulation of the coupled seawater–shell–seabed vibration problem is simplified by treating the shell as a rigid one. The rigid shell vibration problem is approached by the integral equation method using ring‐load Green's functions for a layered seawater‐seabed half‐space. By considering the boundary conditions at the shell–soil interface, the shell vibration problem is reduced to Fredholm integral equations. Through an analysis of the corresponding Cauchy singular equations, the intrinsic singular characteristics of the problem are rendered explicit. With the singularities incorporated into the solution representation, an effective numerical method involving Gauss–Chebyshev method is developed for the governing Fredholm equations. Selected numerical results for the dynamic contact load distributions, displacements of the shell, and lateral dynamic impedance functions are examined for different shell length–radius ratio, poroelastic materials, and frequencies of excitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.