基于间断位移场的隧道围岩承载能力研究

岩体是岩石块体和分割这些块体的边界的组合体。沿边界面(结构面)的局部剪切变形使得位移场产生间断,对岩体的力学性能产生巨大的影响。采用光滑函数组合来描述滑移面上的间断,得到反映岩体沿着边界局部剪切的数学模型。利用此局部剪切模型得出了应力–滑移关系具有强化阶段时圆形坑道围岩自身承载能力的解析表达式,研究了岩体滑移面对坑道围岩自身承载能力的影响。通过分析得到,自承能力在深部坑道围岩的稳定中发挥了重要作用,应力–滑移关系的强化段对围岩承载力有着很大的影响;围岩压力与坑道的埋深、坑道的尺寸以及围岩的物理力学性质等具有直接关系;围岩出现不稳定的动力现象(岩爆)与此岩体参数m关系极大,而岩体参数与接触面的软化程度、能量转移、耗散结构的几何尺寸以及弹性模量有关。     

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

地电场布极方式研究

针对南京地震台地电场无斜道测量的布极方式,从地电场的矢量特性着手,经过对观测数据的分析,认为目前普遍采用地电场斜道观测的方式可以取消,增加NS测道和EW测道的测量,加大地震前兆数据的采集,为地震预报提供更多的前兆观测数据。     

Discussion on the Abnormally Low Active Fault Slip Rate of the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Based on the collection of active fault slip rate data of large intra-continental shallow thrust earthquakes occurring in the triangular seismic region of the East Asia continent,a preliminary analysis has been performed with results showing that the Wenchuan,Sichuan, China earthquake ( MS = 8. 0) of May 12,2008 occurred on the Longmenshan Mountain active fault with an abnormally low slip rate.     

支持向量机方法在地震短期预测中的应用

支持向量机方法是基于统计学习理论提出的一种机器学习方法,在处理小样本、非线性问题方面有着很强的优势。而地震的孕育发生过程是一个复杂的非线性动力学系统,地震数据时间序列的变化更呈现非线性、不规则等特征。本文系统地分析了天津及其周边地区多种前兆现象,选取反映2至3个月短期情况的前兆测项,使用支持向量机分类方法建立地震综合预测模型,初步结果表明这种方法在地震短期预测中有一定的应用前景。     

加筋土边坡临界滑动场

在分析加筋土边坡稳定性时,将加筋材料的作用视为施加于滑面上的等效力,建立了满足力平衡的加筋土边坡安全系数的计算格式;将边坡临界滑动场数值模拟方法进行推广,提出了基于力平衡的加筋土边坡临界滑动场计算方法,可以得到形状任意的临界滑动面及边坡最小安全系数。通过算例,比较加筋前后临界滑动面和安全系数的变化,并探讨了加筋水平间距、强度、长度对加筋土边坡稳定性的影响。     

多色彩高空间分辨率遥感影像矢量边缘信息提取算法与应用

相对单波段灰度影像而言,多波段高空间分辨率遥感影像中可用于边缘检测的光谱信息更加丰富。鉴于Canny算子在灰度图像边缘检测中的优越性能,本文利用输出融合策略对其适用于高空间分辨率遥感影像矢量边缘检测作了改进。基于可视化开发平台VC++.NET,编程实现了福州市航拍的高空间分辨率遥感影像红绿蓝三个标准波段在RGB、IHS、Y IQ、YUV、C IELUV色彩空间中对各种地物矢量边缘信息的有效提取。对高空间分辨率遥感影像矢量边缘各分量的分析认为,由于波谱范围差异的影响,在上述色彩空间中不同地物类型边缘检测时响应程度具有显著的不同。本文研究结果表明,该算法参数设置和色彩空间选择对高空间分辨率遥感影像矢量边缘信息提取有较大的影响。     

不对称双连拱海底隧道施工引起的地层变形分析

在目前众多的预测隧道开挖引起的地层变形的方法中,经验公式法最为简便,也是目前应用最为广泛的方法,为此介绍了多种预测隧道开挖引起的地层沉降和水平位移的经验公式。并以青岛胶州湾海底隧道不对称双连拱断面为工程背景,由位于主隧道与匝道交叉口段的典型断面ZK2+800.78的几何参数和地质资料构建三维数值计算模型,采用岩土体工程通用有限差分软件FLAC3D进行动态施工三维数值模拟。通过对FLAC3D模拟和各经验公式计算的地层沉降和水平位移的对比分析,评价了FLAC3D软件和各经验公式在不对称双连拱隧道断面地层变形预测中的适用性。结果表明,当地层埋深较浅时,不同埋深地层的地层沉降和水平位移可近似用各经验公式来预测;但随着地层埋深的增大,各经验公式预测的偏差不断增大;经验公式只能对单一地层、单一隧道的地层变形进行估算,存在明显的局限性,而在预测复杂地质条件下不对称双连拱隧道断面开挖引起的地层变形时,FLAC3D较各经验公式有明显的优势     

干湿循环作用下膨胀土裂隙演化规律试验研究

对南阳膨胀土在反复干湿循环作用下的裂隙演化规律进行了室内试验研究。试验中采用烘干法模拟脱湿过程,采用抽气饱和法模拟饱和过程。在脱湿过程中,定时对土样进行称重、定点拍照,以记录裂隙发育状况。利用矢量图技术对裂隙照片进行矢量化处理,以提取裂隙的各种几何要素,继而进行裂隙度计算。裂隙度变化规律分析结果表明,影响裂隙张开程度的关键因素并非土体含水率,而是含水率梯度,而脱湿速率的空间分布、土块渗透特性以及土块尺寸大小则是决定含水率梯度大小的关键因素;膨胀土裂隙在干湿循环的作用下会逐步发育,主要体现在裂隙总面积与总长度的增加,但此作用有限,裂隙的发育达到一定程度以后便会因为土块尺寸过小而停止;反复干湿循环会使土体产生范性变形,该范性变形与完整土块的胀缩特性并无直接联系,其主要成因是裂隙的发育与土体完整性的破坏,裂隙越发育,土体范性变形量越大     

滑带土强度特性的试验研究

滑带土的强度特性对于边坡稳定具有重要的控制作用,揭示滑带土强度指标的变化规律是进行边坡安全性评估的基本前提。针对一库岸古滑坡滑动带中的含粗粒细粒土,进行了滑带土强度特性的试验研究：通过现场大剪试验和室内固结快剪试验分析了滑带土的剪切性状,确定了再生强度、现场折减强度和固结快剪强度;根据现行反复剪切试验在确定含粗粒细粒土残余强度时的不足,对试验方法和试验仪器进行了改进,提出了滑带土的残余强度指标,并与其他剪切条件下的强度指标进行了比较;基于试验结果的统计分析,探讨了土体含水率、塑性指数及粗粒含量对剪切强度指标的影响,并总结了含粗粒细粒土与一般黏性土或砂土在剪切性状方面的诸多不同