水平定向钻穿越工程的项目风险评价

随着我国城市化进程的加快,以及大型基础工程建设投入力度的加大,大型的水平定向钻穿越工程项目也越来越多,然而针对这类工程的风险评价却还不多。某大型天然气输气管道工程项目,投资多,风险大,事先进行风险评估十分必要。首先根据项目专家进行项目评估建立指标体系,然后结合模糊综合评价法和层次分析法各自的优点,针对该指标体系及专家所提供的评判数据,建立判断矩阵和隶属度矩阵并运用Matlab编程计算得权向量和隶属度向量,计算得出项目的风险值,得出相应的结论。     

An agent-integrated irregular automata model of urban land-use dynamics

Urban growth models are useful tools to understand the patterns and processes of urbanization. In recent years, the bottom-up approach of geo-computation, such as cellular automata and agent-based modeling, is commonly used to simulate urban land-use dynamics. This study has developed an integrated model of urban growth called agent-integrated irregular automata (AIIA) by using vector geographic information system environment (i.e. both the data model and operations). The model was tested for the city of San Marcos, Texas to simulate two scenarios of urban growth. Specifically, the study aimed to answer whether incorporating commercial, industrial and institutional agents in the model and using social theories (e.g. utility functions) improves the conventional urban growth modeling. By validating against empirical land-use data, the results suggest that a holistic framework such as AIIA performs better than the existing irregular-automata-based urban growth modeling.     

明基床上开孔沉箱垂直力峰值对应的水平力分析

利用水槽二维物理模型对规则波及不规则波作用下明基床上开孔沉箱所受到的波浪力进行了较为系统的试验研究。分析了开孔沉箱总垂直力峰值时刻对应的总水平力与相对基床高度、消浪室相对宽度、波陡、相对水深以及开孔率等影响因素之间的关系,给出了明基床上开孔沉箱总水平力比值(总垂直力峰值时刻对应的总水平力/总水平力峰值)与各影响因素之间的计算关系式。研究成果可供实际工程参考应用。     

基于指标规范值的海水水质评价的SVR模型

为了建立具有普适通用的海水水质评价的支持向量机模型,在设置各指标参照值和指标规范变换式,并对指标进行规范变换的基础上,应用免疫进化优化算法,建立基于指标规范值的海水水质评价的回归支持向量机模型。将优化好的模型用于珠江口海水水质的评价,其评价结果与BP神经网络的评价结果基本一致,从而表明基于指标规范值的支持向量机模型用于海水水质评价是可行的,且该模型较传统的支持向量机评价模型具有较好的普适性和通用性。     

Aerosol Type Identification Using PARASOL Multichannel Polarized Data

PARASOL （Polarization ＆ Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Ob- servations from a Lidar） multi-channel and mul- ti-directional polarized data for different aerosol types were compared. The PARASOL polarized radiance data at 490 nm, 670 nm, and 865 nm increased with aerosol optical thickness （AOT） for fine-mode aerosols; however, the polarized radiances at 490 nm and 670 nm decreased as AOT increased for coarse dust aerosols. Thus, the vari- ation of the polarized radiance with AOT can be used to identify fine or coarse particle-dominated aerosols. Polar- ized radiances at three wavelengths for fine- and coarse-mode aerosols were analyzed and fitted by linear regression. The slope of the line for 670 nm and 490 nm wavelength pairs is less than 0.35 for dust aerosols. However, the value for fine-mode aerosols is greater than 0.60. The Support Vector Machine method （SVM） based on 12 vector features was used to discriminate clear sky, coarse dust aerosols, fine-mode aerosols, and cloud. Two cases were given and validated by AErosol RObotic NETwork （AERONET） measurements, MODIS （Mod- erate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer） FMF （Fine Mode Fraction at 550 nm） images, PARASOL RGB （Red Green Blue） images, and CALIOP （Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization） VFM （Vertical Feature Mask） data.     

海底双相随机介质声反射的SVM神经网络分类识别研究

考虑海底沉积介质为双相介质,为了更好地模拟实际海底底质的不均匀性,将随机介质理论引入双相介质理论。首先,通过基于随机-双相介质理论的高阶有限差分数值技术模拟计算海底底质分别为泥质砂、泥、泥质砾时的地震反射波信号。然后利用小波变换分别求取不同底质的一次反射波的包络作为其特征向量,最后利用基于粒子群智能算法优化的支持向量机神经网络对这些反射波信号进行分类识别。为了进一步考察所用方法的抗噪能力,对正演得到的海底底质反射波信号分别加入10%、30%、50%的高斯白噪音之后再进行分类,支持向量机仍然取得了较好的分类预测效果。基于上述正演模拟及分类识别方法的论证,提出了一套行之有效的微机软件模拟海底沉积物分类识别的一般化流程,这将有利于开展海底沉积物反射特征的进一步研究。     

Nonlinear optimization method of ship floating condition calculation in wave based on vector

Ship floating condition in regular waves is calculated. New equations controlling any ship＇s floating condition are proposed by use of the vector operation. This form is a nonlinear optimization problem which can be solved using the penalty function method with constant coefficients. And the solving process is accelerated by dichotomy. During the solving process, the ship＇s displacement and buoyant centre have been calculated by the integration of the ship surface according to the waterline. The ship surface is described using an accumulative chord length theory in order to determine the displacement, the buoyancy center and the waterline. The draught forming the waterline at each station can be found out by calculating the intersection of the ship surface and the wave surface. The results of an example indicate that this method is exact and efficient. It can calculate the ship floating condition in regular waves as well as simplify the calculation and improve the computational efficiency and the precision of results.     

新疆比勒提地区断裂构造磁异常信息提取及解释简

比勒提地区位于新疆西南天山,以该区1∶50000高精度磁测数据为基础,采用解析延拓、方向导数等技术手段提取与断裂构造有关的磁异常信息,对区域内构造进行识别,结合标本物性参数统计,对引起磁异常的原因进行分析。对区域磁异常向上延拓及求一阶导数后进行对比,圈定4个特征异常带A1~A4,结合地质资料,识别出4条断裂构造FW1~FW4,FW1和FW2对应喀拉铁克断裂及其次级断裂,FW3为构造动力作用产生的强片理化带,FW4为隐伏断裂,表明高精度磁法测量在本区能有效识别断裂并反映其分布。     

地质导向技术在煤层气水平井中的应用——以柳林区块某多分支水平井为例

地质导向技术能有效提高煤层气水平井施工成功率和煤层钻遇率,但由于其具有导向参数多、工艺要求高、易受地质因素影响等特点,使其在实际应用中还存在诸多难点。以柳林区块内某多分支水平井为例,针对该井现场地质导向作业面临的资料缺乏、参数受欠平衡钻进干扰、煤层结构复杂等难点,建立合适的地质导向模型,优选合理的导向参数和导向系统,对地质导向技术在实际应用中的工艺与流程进行了系统论述。实践表明,地质导向技术在该井的应用效果良好:煤层钻遇率达到了93.1%;截至目前,该井的产气量达8600m3/d,且还在进一步提升。     

松嫩平原东部浅层地下水水化学特征及水质评价

针对松嫩平原东部浅层地下水环境特征及存在的问题,利用该区地下水水质检测数据进行了水化学特征分析,利用1983年、1993年、2003年及2012年四个时段的地下水水质资料进行了对比分析,水质出现了明显的变化,在此基础上采用支持向量机法进行了水质现状评价。结果表明:第四系潜水及承压水中Fe、Mn含量较高,总硬度最大值1321.12mg/L,溶解性总固体最大值2214.45mg/L,水化学类型均为矿化度不大于1.5g/L的HCO3-Ca型水。NO3-、NH4+、Cl-、SO42-的含量呈现逐年增加的趋势,同时也出现了原来没有的酚、Cr6+等有毒物质。潜水Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类水样点占总样本的12.03%,Ⅳ、Ⅴ类水占总样本的87.97%。承压水Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类水占总样本的10.83%,Ⅳ、Ⅴ类水占总样本的89.17%。该方法评价结果与综合指数法结果一致率达95%,因此,评价结果可为该区水资源管理提供科学指导。