On the shot-noise streamflow model and its applications

In this paper we consider the shot-noise model of streamflow series. We show how design discharge can be obtained by the stochastic intensity of thinned Poisson processes describing the peaks over a threshold. The main result concerns the stationary distribution of peaks. We derive an explicit expression for this limit distribution in terms of its Laplace transform. Approximation formulas are developed making use of the saddle point method for the asymptotic evaluation of contour integrals and the Post-Widder formula for inversion of Laplace transforms. We illustrate this methods on the case of Gamma-distributed shots. The stationary peak distribution is used to approximate the maximum value distribution for larger time intervals.     

陕北南泥湾油田测井方法技术及发展方向

本文着重介绍了陕北南泥湾油田特低渗高阻含油层的测井系列选择及测井解释原则,并利用测井曲线估算储集层参数孔隙度、渗透率、含油饱和度,选择最佳压裂油段,取得了显著的地质效果。文中最后指出陕北石油测井今后应解决的地质问题和测井发展方向——数字测井技术。     

湖南省金和有色金属矿床成矿系列初论

湖南省内生金属矿产资源颇为丰富。钨、锡、铅、锌、锑为省内优势矿种；稀土、稀有、金、银、铜、汞也占有十分重要的地位。按照成矿过程中的主导地质作用，省内金和有色金属矿床可以划分为五个矿订成矿系列。本文对各矿床成矿系列的形成地质背景、产出构造条件、赋矿围岩、矿床类型进行了总结；并对其时空展布规律进行了讨论。     

白玉县炯隆寺-阿吉森多岩体成因分析

本文以同源岩浆演化序列的观点,探讨了炯隆寺-阿吉森多岩体的成因。研究结果表明,该岩体为印支晚期形成的同熔型花岗闪长岩-二长花岗岩,属于岛弧深成侵入的岩浆岩。     

Rupture segmentation and assessment of probabilities of seismic potential on the Xiaojiang fault zone

Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993.     

苯并噻吩系列化合物的成因模拟及其地球化学意义

在硫和β胡萝卜素反应产物中有丰富的苯并噻吩系列化合物,在硫与饱和链状化合物反应产物中既有噻吩系列化合物也有苯并噻吩系列化合物。所以推断苯并噻吩系列是硫作用于噻吩系列或含侧链的苯而形成的。噻吩系列和苯并噻吩系列的相对含量可以指示成熟度:在沉积条件相同的前提下,前者多后者少指示成熟度低,反之则指示成熟度高。     

华北地块北缘AuAgCuPbZn成矿规律

根据研究区成矿地质背景,分析了地层、构造、岩浆岩等因素对华北地块北缘Au、Ag、Cu、Pb、Zn成矿的控制作用,总结了矿床的时、空分布,共生组合特点,提出了成矿规律.     

Internet-based applications for interrogating 50 years of data from the South African national water quality monitoring network

ABSTRACT

National and regional water quality monitoring networks have been operated in South Africa since the early 1970s. These originally had text-based inventories that were convenient for specialists who were familiar with the national networks and knew the locations of their sites of interest. However, within two decades the networks had expanded in geographical extent and variables monitored to such an extent that users needed spatial context in order to locate sites that fitted their information requirements. Mapping applications running on the Internet, such as Google Earth and Leaflet, form the foundation of a system for providing online inventories and summaries of the data available on the water quality database. The interfaces were constructed using available software, mainly ArcInfo and R. A recent concern is a decrease in the collection of water quality data, which is reducing the value of data summaries for water resource management.     

Lessons learnt from checking the quality of openly accessible river flow data worldwide

ABSTRACT

Advances in open data science serve large-scale model developments and, subsequently, hydroclimate services. Local river flow observations are key in hydrology but data sharing remains limited due to unclear quality, or to political, economic or infrastructure reasons. This paper provides methods for quality checking openly accessible river-flow time series. Availability, outliers, homogeneity and trends were assessed in 21 586 time series from 13 data providers worldwide. We found a decrease in data availability since the 1980s, scarce open information in southern Asia, the Middle East and North and Central Africa, and significant river-flow trends in Africa, Australia, southwest Europe and Southeast Asia. We distinguish numerical outliers from high-flow peaks, and integrate all investigated quality characteristics in a composite indicator. We stress the need to maintain existing gauging networks, and highlight opportunities in extending existing global databases, understanding drivers for trends and inhomogeneity, and in innovative acquisition methods in data-scarce regions.     

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.