Mapping the Geographical Diffusion of a Finnish Smallpox Epidemic from Historical Population Records

Smallpox mortality from an early 19th century epidemic in Finland is mapped at the parish village level. First, geographically referenced historical materials are used to construct a map showing the spread of smallpox mortality among villages. Next, the diffusion of smallpox morbidity is simulated by computer for the same set of villages. These two maps are then compared. Results indicate that at this scale maps of mortality diffusion can show general trends but have no direct spatial correspondence to the underlying pattern of morbidity diffusion. Mortality maps cannot be used as a surrogate measure of infectious contact behavior at micro scales of analysis.     

On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.     

似鱼形断层角砾形成机制及意义

在湖南衡东县铅锌矿观察到一种似鱼形的断层角砾。利用单个角砾即可指示断层两盘位移方向和断层面产状。作者认为它将为变质岩区矿田构造研究、为钻孔岩心研究和矿山坑道地质研究中确定断层位移方向带来方便。     

Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series

Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.     

时序分析在危岩体监测数据处理中的应用

引入时间序列分析进行危岩体监测数据的处理，建立了危岩体变形的动态模型，取得了较好的拟会与预报精度。     

鲜水河断裂带炉霍县卡扎村大探槽古地震研究

本文测定分析了特殊地区的两种不同饱和状态的干压实土体在不同等级荷栽作用下产生的沉陷量，探讨了施荷时间对沉陷量的影响从而提示了两种干压实土体在荷载作用下沉陷量变化规律，并分析研究了这两种干压实土体的最大压缩模量与饱和度的关系。这一研究成果对干旱特殊地区的公路设计施工具有一定的参考价值。     

川滇交界中段历史强震及其活动特征

本文在详细补充调查和充分整理前人资料基础上，对川滇交界中段的其中６次强震进行了等烈度图编制，并对川滇菱块东界大地震的等烈度线分布特征进行了研究，按照构造孕育与发震扩展的思路，探讨了川滇交界中段的中长期地震危险性。     

冀北侏罗系上统火山岩中宇宙尘的发现及其地质意义

在冀北丰宁、沽源、赤城一带的上侏罗统火山岩中发现有不同形态的铁质及玻璃质微球粒。经电镜扫描及外貌结构构造的鉴定，显示有熔融、碰撞、逸气、旋纹、冷疑、收缩等特征；经电子探针及Ｘ射线粉晶衍射分析，认为是宇宙尘。对其进行研究不仅有重要的地质意义，而且有找矿意义。     

康滇地轴石棉—会理段金矿化同位素地质研究

本文在研究康滇地轴石棉－会理段金矿化地质特征的基础上，分析了各类金矿化的同位素年龄、氢、氧、碳、硫和铅同位素的变化特征。指出了它们的流体类型、碳、硫、铅及金等成矿物质的来源，从而建立了本区金矿化的成矿序列。     

花岗岩体构造-化学特征与钨、锡成矿作用

本文以南岭几个金属矿床为例,阐明含矿复式岩体形成过程中岩浆入侵通道是否变动以及如何变动,影响到矿化分带特征。与单一入侵通道有关的岩浆-矿化具有明显的垂直分带,而与多个入侵通道有关的岩浆-矿化,则水平分带较为显著。构造类型影响矿石类型和成矿系列中各矿床类型间的相互关系。本文提出了各矿床类型间的过渡性、重叠性和互补性,并认为它们是客观存在的普遍现象。