Technology obscuring equity: historical responsibility in UNFCCC negotiations

According to the concept of historical responsibility, the commitments of individual countries to take action on climate change are distributed based on the relative effects of their past emissions as manifested in present climate change. Brazil presented a comprehensive version of the concept to pre-Kyoto negotiations in 1997. The ‘Brazilian proposal’ originally combined several justice principles; however, following referral to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, discussion soon became confined to technical calculations. This case illustrates how disparities in knowledge production and framing can influence the inclusiveness of negotiations. Southern participation in the policy process was restrained due to lack of scientific expertise on the part of Southern countries and due to the non-inclusive biophysical discourse traditionally preferred by Northern policy-makers. The historical responsibility issue became stranded on problems of how to correctly represent physical nature in climate models. This marginalized the original intention that equity should be the guiding principle of the North—South interaction, arguably undercutting a potential angle of approach to advance the climate change negotiations. The article concludes that in the interest of facilitating the North—South dialogue in climate change negotiations, any framing of historical responsibility that excludes equity needs to be redefined.     

Three-Step Difference Scheme for Solving Nonlinear Time-Evolution Partial Differential Equations

In this paper, a special three-step difference scheme is applied to the solution of nonlinear time-evolution equations, whose coefficients are determined according to accuracy constraints, necessary conditions of square conservation, and historical observation information under the linear supposition. As in the linear case, the schemes also have obvious superiority in overall performance in the nonlinear case compared with traditional finite difference schemes, e.g., the leapfrog（LF） scheme and the complete square conservation difference（CSCD） scheme that do not use historical observations in determining their coefficients, and the retrospective time integration（RTI） scheme that does not consider compatibility and square conservation. Ideal numerical experiments using the one-dimensional nonlinear advection equation with an exact solution show that this three-step scheme minimizes its root mean square error（RMSE） during the first 2500 integration steps when no shock waves occur in the exact solution, while the RTI scheme outperforms the LF scheme and CSCD scheme only in the first 1000 steps and then becomes the worst in terms of RMSE up to the 2500th step. It is concluded that reasonable consideration of accuracy, square conservation, and historical observations is also critical for good performance of a finite difference scheme for solving nonlinear equations.     

历史气候变化影响研究中的社会经济等级序列重建方法探讨

重建历史时期的社会经济序列是研究气候变化对社会经济影响的难点问题.基于中国历史文献记载丰富、覆盖时段长、记录时间分辨率高、含有大量的社会经济信息描述的特点,本文阐述了采用语义差异法定量重建历史时期社会经济序列的方法,特别是其中的文字描述等级化和时间尺度归一化技术.语义差异法源于心理学,通常采用双极(相对、反义)形容词来刻画研究对象的属性,以表示不同程度的言语进行量化区分,根据描述词汇的语义差异构建分级量表.采用语义差异法对历史社会经济变化进行量化的关键是确定重建指标分级量化的标准,需要在兼顾不同词汇的语义是否易于区分的同时,特别注意各等级及其所对应的标准词汇的物理意义.时间尺度归一化主要解决根据原始记录重建的原始等级序列可能存在的时间分辨率不均等或时间不连续问题,以10年分辨率作为时间尺度均一化的基本时间单元,对年分辨率的记录,可采取先逐年等级化重建再加权平均到10年等级值的方法进行升尺度处理;对年代际以上尺度的数据则可先直接对记录进行等级化,再通过多时间分辨率10年数据的融合方法进行降尺度处理,得到10年分辨率的等级值.     

Historical Evolution of Global and Regional Surface Air Temperature Simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2: How Reliable Are the Model Results?

In order to assess the performance of two versions of the IAP/LASG Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model, simulated changes in surface air temperature (SAT), from natural and anthropogenic forcings, were compared to observations for the period 18502005 at global, hemispheric, continental and regional scales. The global and hemispheric averages of SAT and their land and ocean components during 18502005 were well reproduced by FGOALS-g2, as evidenced by significant correlation coefficients and small RMSEs. The significant positive correlations were firstly determined by the warming trends, and secondly by interdecadal fluctuations. The abilities of the models to reproduce interdecadal SAT variations were demonstrated by both wavelet analysis and significant positive correlations for detrended data. The observed land--sea thermal contrast change was poorly simulated. The major weakness of FGOALS-s2 was an exaggerated warming response to anthropogenic forcing, with the simulation showing results that were far removed from observations prior to the 1950s. The observations featured warming trends (19062005) of 0.71, 0.68 and 0.79 (100 yr)-1 for global, Northern and Southern Hemispheric averages, which were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 [1.42, 1.52 and 1.13oC (100 yr)-1] but underestimated by FGOALS-g2 [0.69, 0.68 and 0.73oC (100 yr)-1]. The polar amplification of the warming trend was exaggerated in FGOALS-s2 but weakly reproduced in FGOALS-g2. The stronger response of FGOALS-s2 to anthropogenic forcing was caused by strong sea-ice albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. Examination of model results in 15 selected subcontinental-scale regions showed reasonable performance for FGOALS-g2 over most regions. However, the observed warming trends were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 in most regions. Over East Asia, the meridional gradient of the warming trend simulated by FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) was stronger (weaker) than observed.     

1950—2020年东北地区林地时空变化特征分析

基于地形图、土地利用现状图提取并分析1950—2020年东北地区林地时空变化格局。结果表明：① 地形图中记载的林地信息能有效反映20世纪中期东北地区林地基本特征;研究期内林地呈先增后减态势,增幅达10.04×10⁴ km²,同期覆盖率从34.67%增至44.97%;市域林地均呈增加态势,净增幅前5的市域均超5 000 km²。② 研究期内林地不变、增加和减少区面积分别为28.36×10⁴ km²、15.49×10⁴ km²和5.45×10⁴ km²;林地不变区沿长白山、大小兴安岭呈倒U字形分布,占2020年林地面积的64.68%;林地增加区集中于辽河平原、长白山西侧、三江平原东侧、大兴安岭东西两侧;林地减少区零星分散、未呈明显集聚。③ 林地减少的流向表明,农业拓垦是东北地区林地减少的主因,侵占林地规模占林地减少量的88.18%,转化为耕地的区域主要分布在平原与山脉结合处及河谷地带;河流水体与城乡建设占用的林地基本相当,约占林地减少量的2.00%,城乡建设未对林地造成较大损坏。④ 研究期立地条件有大幅改善,林地距城镇平均距离缩减2.26 km,半数新增林地位于城镇10 km范围内;林地平均高程下降41.44 m,超半数新增林地位于高程300 m以内,林地向城镇延伸和“下山进平原”现象明显。     

东莞市历史建筑数字化保护研究

本文通过对东莞市获批的278处历史建筑的现场调研,采用无人机、三维激光扫描等空间信息技术实现信息采集和数字化建库,结合数字化管理平台与公众服务系统全方位展示和传播东莞市历史建筑的文化价值。旨在探索数字化技术与历史建筑保护相结合的新模式,为传统文化资源的保存、保护、活化利用及传播提供新思路,从而推动历史建筑保护管理工作向科学化、完整化、系统化和共享化方向发展。     

客家聚落地名时空分布与演变方法研究

针对目前地名文化中客家聚落地名研究的不足,该文从客家迁徙历史的角度,提出了客家地名定性和定量的研究方法,以客家摇篮石城地名为研究对象,采用核密度分析法和多元logit回归模型方法,深入分析石城客家地名的时空分布特征和历史演变因素。结果显示:在时间上,客家地名数量整体呈现上升趋势,增长时间分为5个阶段,隋唐萌芽时期、宋朝大量增长期、元朝缓慢增长期、明朝平稳增长期和清朝快速增长期;在空间上,客家地名分布显现出聚集特征,但聚集程度各异,聚集点和聚集区域随着时间的推移而变化。根据logit模型结果显示,地形、河流、人口和经济等多种因素交融在一起,对客家地名的演化产生了重大而深远的影响。     

基于历史数据的中国台风灾害孕灾环境敏感性分析

根据台风路径数据,通过计算评价单元内不同强度台风灾害发生频数和路径长度,综合表征台风孕灾环境敏感性的大小。结果表明:1)在四个强度台风条件下,敏感性最高的区域位于海南省、广东省沿海、福建省和浙江省沿海,随着台风灾害强度增强,影响范围呈现向北、向内陆延伸、扩展的趋势;2)台风灾害强度达到中度时,高敏感性的区域减少,低敏感性的区域面积大幅度增加,同时,台风路径东移明显,福建所受影响加重,海南和广东影响有所减小。     

地理环境决定论是人类优秀文化遗产

对地理环境决定论是“资产阶级地理思想”提出质疑。并对人与自然关系进行系统梳理和反思：（1）地理环境决定论产生并发展于东西方两个伟大时代；（2）地理环境决定论在近代受到的批判是误解所致；（3）地理环境决定论大大丰富了历史唯物主义。提出地理环境决定论是人类优秀文化遗产。