历史GIS的研究现状和发展趋势

历史地理信息系统（历史GIS）属于地理信息系统（GIS）与历史学相结合的交叉研究领域,它有机地集成了GIS的技术方法、地理学家的空间视角和历史学家的时间视角,量化历史时期的地理过程并构建相应的时空模型,为面向未来的科学预测提供研究基础。历史GIS兴起于20世纪90年代中期,给GIS学科、历史地理学和历史学都带来了新的研究机遇与活力,并表现出强劲的发展势头,但也存在一些尚待解决的问题。近年来,历史GIS向社会提供了日益丰富的历史地理信息服务,并逐渐跨越系统的技术层面,向着科学层面纵深发展。本文通过对国内外相关文献的梳理与分析,回顾了历史GIS产生的背景,从数字化、数据模型、数据库建设与系统开发、空间分析和可视化5个方面综述了国内外历史GIS的研究现状。最后,从历史资料的空间化与数字化、历史地理时空大数据、历史地理空间框架构建及历史地理信息服务、历史地理时空过程及模型构建、历史地理信息科学和技术学科体系的形成等角度展望了历史GIS的发展趋势,以期为历史GIS未来的发展提供新的研究思路。     

Soil liquefaction potential induced by the andalusian earthquake of 25 December 1884

On 25 December 1884, an earthquake of epicentral intensityI ₀ = IX in the MSK scale caused great damage in a large area in the provinces of Granada and Málaga, in the south of Spain. The reports of the Spanish, Italian and French Commissions that studied the earthquake described ground phenomena in seven different sites which can be identified as soil liquefaction.By means of dynamic penetration tests carried out in the above sites, the corresponding soil profiles (based on SPT data and water table depth) were established, and the occurrence of liquefaction was proved in five out of seven of these sites. Also, the intensities at such locations and the magnitude of the earthquake were estimated.From the geotechnical data and the cyclic stress ratio induced by the earthquake, liquefaction conditions were confirmed in all the five sites which presumably liquefied. Then, possible values of the minimum ground surface accelerations necessary for the onset of liquefaction at each location were calculated. The results obtained were completed with data reported in six liquefaction case studies from Japan and the United States, from which design charts relating soil acceleration with normalized SPT values for different intensity levels were drawn.Finally, by using standard attenuation curves, the above data were translated into epicentral distances, and good agreement with the known epicentral area was found. As a result, a consistent approach for liquefaction hazard and source location problems has been developed. The proposed method combines in its formulation historical evidence and earthquake engineering techniques.     

历史时期中国东部年代际干旱模拟的研究进展

本文总结了历史时期中国东部年代际干旱时空特征及成因机制的最新研究进展。作为典型季风区, 中国东部年代际干旱均与典型的弱季风事件相关, 空间特征上呈现出南涝北旱或者全区干旱的模态。成因机制方面, 年代际干旱由气候系统内部变率(PDO、AMO)和外强迫(包括火山活动、太阳辐射、温室气体、人为气溶胶、土地利用等)共同作用引发, 其中, 气候系统内部变率主要对年代际干旱起到触发作用, 外强迫对干旱强度和持续时间起到加剧作用; 此外, 外强迫还通过改变气候系统内部变率的频次和强度来改变年代际干旱的频次、强度、持续时间; 最后, 本文还探讨了历史时期中国东部年代尺度干旱研究中未解决的问题及未来研究方向。

     

The nature, extent and causes of land degradation in South Africa: legacy of the past, lessons for the future?

The aim of this paper is to reassess the land degradation and desertification problem in South Africa. The country has a wide range of interrelated environmental and development challenges existing in a socio–political context recently subject to substantial change. The paper outlines the fundamental environmental constraints and opportunities that underlie degradation phenomena and illustrates the nature, extent and geographical distribution of the major forms of soil and vegetation degradation in the country. The principal causes of degradation are identified and some important land use and land tenure questions that need to be addressed in the near future are posited.     

蒙元时期陕甘宁交界地区干湿变化特征

从官修正史、方志和历朝纪事本末、区域气象灾害年鉴等历史文献资料中提取关于陕甘宁交界地区(元前期陕西四川行省的西北部以及元后期的陕西行省和甘肃行省的交界地区,主要包括宁夏府路、河州路、巩昌路、奉元路和延安路之间的部分)的水涝、干旱等气候信息共240余条,利用湿润指数法、旱涝灾害定级法对其于湿变化特点进行研究.研究发现1208-1369年期间,陕甘宁交界地区气候总体以干旱为主.旱涝灾害发生频率的比例为85/38.按照旱涝变化类型可将研究区旱涝变化过程分为三个时段,1208-1240年是以干旱为主要特征,局部时段偶发水涝灾害的时期;1240-1320年,基本持续干旱,而且极端干旱事件频发;1320-1369年,旱灾略有好转,但是旱涝交并发生.蒙元时期陕甘宁交界地区的干湿变化具有明显的转折性和周期性.转折主要发生在1230年和1325年前后,以此两点为界,前后气候变化类型有比较明显的差异.蒙元时期的干湿变化具有10年和23年的准周期,均与太阳活动周期吻合,说明蒙元时期区域干湿变化受太阳活动影响较大.     

1755年中国东部极端雨涝事件研究

1755年（清乾隆二十年）我国东部大范围、多流域严重雨涝,其后1756、1757年黄河中下游雨涝,连续2年呈现较少见的北涝南旱降水分布格局,这是小冰期中相对温暖时段气候背景下的重大气象灾害和极端气候事件。依据历史文献记载复原多雨的天气实况和气候特征,绘制各年多雨、水灾和伴生的饥荒、虫灾、疫疾的发生地域实况图。结果表明,1755年黄河、长江中下游和淮河流域持续多雨,其中黄淮地区连续雨日超过40 d。有早梅雨,长江下游的梅雨期长达43 d,是18世纪最长的梅雨期,南京的年降水量达1378 mm,是18世纪的最高值。1755年气温偏低,夏寒、秋霜早、冬季寒冷等特征与典型的极端多雨年1823和1954年相同,这3例极端多雨年都是太阳活动周的极小年。     

A critical evaluation of young (near-zero) K–Ar ages

An evaluation of the precision and resolution of the unspiked K–Ar dating method is presented with particular regard to the statistical significance of ages that are measured near or at the detection limit of the technique. Near-zero (historical) ages can be measured by the unspiked K–Ar technique with a precision that is essentially controlled by the precision with which the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar of the sample can be resolved from the present-day atmospheric value of 295.5. The best analytical precision on the isotopic ratio is ±0.05% (1σ) by this technique, which currently limits the lower detection limit of unspiked K–Ar ages to samples featuring at least 0.14% of radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar. The corresponding youngest resolvable K–Ar age depends on the K content and atmospheric contamination of the sample. Total-fusion analysis of high-K refractory minerals like sanidine is not practicable via K–Ar, and the lowest resolvable age for medium-K samples more amenable to complete fusion is around 1.5 ka (on a single-run basis). It is argued that near-zero age measured with a probability density straddling or narrowing the time-origin cannot be handled without accounting for the non-negativity constraint imposed by the physical requirement of a positive age. The pertinent equations are derived both for the single-run case and for the case of independent replicates made on a single sample. We show that pooled K–Ar replicates can theoretically reduce the nominal uncertainty of individual unspiked ages (typically ±1.5 ka, 2σ) to a value that is close to the smallest ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar isochron age uncertainty achievable on sanidine in the 0–2 ka range (±0.2 ka, 2σ). However, this performance is obtained at the cost of prohibitively large-sample statistics (n≥15) for medium-K feldspars datable via K–Ar. Coupled with the inability of the K–Ar approach to obviate the problems of excess/fractionated ⁴⁰Ar and/or xenocrystic contamination, this makes the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar technique the method of choice for dating historical events by the K–Ar scheme.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Portable Utopia: Glasgow and the United States 1820–1920. Bernard Aspinwall. Studies in Russian Historical Geography. James H. Bater and R. A. French, eds. Water and Sanitation: Economic and Sociological Perspectives. Peter G. Bourne, ed. Green Politics. Fritjof Capra and Charlene Spretnak. The Southern Cone: Realities of the Authoritarian State. César N. Caviedes. Women in Third World Development. Sue Ellen Charlton. Land Management: New Directions. David Chiddick and Alan Millington, eds. Geography and Ethnic Pluralism. Colin Clarke, David Ley, Ceri Peach, eds. Geomorphological Hazards in Los Angeles. R. U. Cooke. Regional Impacts of United States-Mexico Economic Relations. Alfonso Corona and Lay James Gibson. eds. Patterns of Jobs and Geographic Mobility. Torvald Gerger. Cities and Sickness: Health Care in Urban America. Ann Lennarson Greer and Scott Greer, eds. Neighborhoods: Their Place in Urban Life. Howard W. Hallman. Development and the Rural-Urban Divide. John Harriss and Mick Moore, eds. Patterns of Undocumented Migration: Mexico and the United States. Richard C. Jones, ed. Central Place Theory. Leslie J. King. The Geography of Western Europe: A Socio-economic Survey. Paul L. Knox. Regions and Resources: Strategies for Development. David T. Krisge, Daniel A. Seiver, Oliver S. Goldsmith and Michael J. Scott. Geography of Crowding and Human Response. A Study of Ahmedabad City. K. M. Kulkarni. Haciendo Pueblo. The Development of a Guadalajaran Suburb. Kathleen Logan. The Imperial Lion: Human Dimensions of Wildlife Management in Central Africa. Stewart A. Marks. Water in the Hispanic Southwest: A Social and Legal History, 1550–1850. Michael C. Meyer. Imlil: A Moroccan Mountain Community in Change. James A. Miller. Tourism in Canada: Selected Issues and Options. Peter E. Murphy, ed. David Harvey's Geography. John L. Paterson. Raster Scanning, Processing and Plotting of Cartographic Documents. Donna J. Peuquet and A. Raymond Boyle. The USSR and the Muslim World: Issues in Domestic and Foreign Policy. Yaacov Ro'i, ed. Environmental Perception and Behavior: An Inventory and Prospect. Thomas F. Saarinen, David Seamon, and James L. Sell. Incised channels, Morphology, Dynamics, and Control. Stanley A. Schumm, Michael D. Harvey, and Chester C. Watson. The Gap Between Rich and Poor: Contending Perspectives on the Political Economy of Development. Mitchell A. Seligson, ed. Twentieth-Century Richmond. Planning, Politics and Race. Christopher Silver. Land Conservation and Development: Examples of Land-Use Planning Projects and Programs. F. R. Steiner and H. N. van Lier, eds. Biogeography: Recent Advances and Future Directions. J. A. Taylor, ed. Late Quaternary Environments of the Soviet Union. A. A. Velichko, ed. H. E. Wright, Jr. and C. W. Barnosky, eds.     

国际矿业政策与立法的变迁

从历史和全球的视角,以矿产资源所有权、矿业活动经营主体、政府在矿业中的作用为重点,追索矿业政策及立法的历史沿革。全球矿业政策与立法经历了第二次世界大战前矿业政策与立法萌芽期,第二次世界大战后到20世纪70年代的国有化期,20世纪80—90年代的自由开放期,21世纪理性发展期等几个阶段。     

20年来部分黑土耕层有机质和全氮含量的变化

黑土有机质含量的变化一直倍受社会关注。根据第二次全国土壤普查的采样记录,2001年在吉林省黑土区采集了27个土壤样品,分析测定了耕层土壤(深度与第二次土普数据相同)的有机质和全氮含量。与第二次土普查数据对比发现,过去20年间,吉林省黑土土壤有机质和全氮含量有增有减,但平均水平无明显变化。与已有的研究对比分析,高产玉米生产条件下的根系碳输入量可能抵消矿化损失的有机质量,使水土流失不严重区域的黑土土壤有机质水平维持平衡,有机质含量下降的土壤可能是水土流失的结果。而在水土流失不严重地区土壤有机质则可能增加。