中国历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响*

历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响与人类适应问题,是当前全球变化领域的研究热点之一。近年来,在利用丰富的历史文献资料研究中国历史时期(特别是过去2000年时段)气候变化与人类社会相互作用的过程机理方面取得了一系列新成果。本文将其归纳为3个方面: 理论上,构建了基于粮食安全的气候影响传递过程分析框架;方法上,实现了服务于气候变化影响研究的、基于语义差异的历史社会经济序列定量重建;科学认识上,总结出“冷抑暖扬”而又福祸相依的宏观韵律。在此基础上,对未来研究需要进一步深化的方向进行了展望。     

泰安地区历史及现代地震与断裂活动性关系研究

根据泰安地区主要断层进行系统研究,并分析历史地震、1970年后有仪器记载以来地震与断裂活动的相关性。结果表明,该区域所处地块在地质结构改变,岩石破裂方面,存在一个固定趋势的影响,而这种影响也作用到了地震事件的分布。在今后相当长的一段时间内,泰安地区地震趋势没有明显转折,依旧维持目前的趋势。持续的小震活动,是本地区4级左右中强震延迟孕育的有力证明依据。     

Comparison between rocking analysis and kinematic analysis for the dynamic out‐of‐plane behavior of masonry walls

This paper provides a contribution to the rocking analysis of masonry walls by making a comparison with the kinematic analysis suggested by the Italian code. It is shown that the latter approach is generally over‐conservative and therefore potentially inappropriate for historic buildings, where rehabilitation can be expensive and can affect their cultural value. The equation of motion given by the Housner formulation, corresponding to the movement of a rigid block, is here modified to account for different boundary conditions at different heights of the wall. These boundary conditions or horizontal restraints can represent vaults, transverse walls, or retrofitting devices such as steel tie‐rods. A systemic analysis of walls having different dimensions and slenderness is performed, and the results from the Italian code and rocking analysis are compared. Finally, the improvement in the response offered by retrofitting devices is discussed in terms of reduction of amplitude ratio. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing the development of sampled sites on fluvial island surfaces of the Tagliamento River,Italy, from historical sources

In parallel with research on surface sediment characteristics of evolving island features (patches) along an island‐braided reach of the Tagliamento River, Italy, the present research reconstructed the development of the sampled sites using historical information coupled with field measurements. Since any field sediment sampling programme inevitably focuses on small areas (of the order of a few metres), the historical sources were assessed bearing in mind their spatial resolution and geographical accuracy in relation to the size of the sampled sites, and the information they could provide regarding the historical evolution of those sites. The analysis combined four sources of information: (i) river stage records revealed flood events that had the potential to reset bar surfaces and float in wood and seeds to initiate vegetation colonization; (ii) oblique ground photographs identified areas of the river's active corridor where riparian vegetation colonization appeared to have been initiated by specific flood events; (iii) dendrochronology was used to estimate the age of sampled sites; (iv) field‐measured geographical locations of the sampled sites were combined with historical vertical areal imagery to further establish sampling site age and changes in vegetation cover from 1944 to 2012. A chronosequence of sampled sites (0, 2, 8, 12, 40 years) was established. Vegetation colonization and island development showed a statistically significant development trajectory among sites of each age across the 40 year period following formative floods in 1965–1966, 2000, 2004 and a flow pulse in 2010. The trajectory progressed through pioneer and building island stages until vegetated areas became part of established islands. Evidence from the younger sites indicates that the pioneer island phase lasts up to eight years. Evidence from the oldest site indicates a building island phase lasting a maximum of 30 years, but probably a lot less. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

清代北疆作物种植结构对气候变化的响应

提取历史文献中有关清代北疆地区的农事记录,分析作物种植结构的变化,并与树轮重建的北疆5~8月温度序列进行对比,发现作物结构对气候有较好的响应,在3个偏冷阶段,即1732~1744、1776~1796、1828~1848年间,奏折记录显示以青稞、糜子、小麦喜凉、温作物为主。在3个偏暖阶段,即1745~1775年,1797~1827年,1849~1860年间,北疆开始试种豌豆、小麦、谷子喜温作物成功并逐年扩大种植面积。     

历史文献记载的1757—1774年天山北麓东部地区温度升高

通过整理历史文献中有关天山北麓东部地区18世纪中后期的相关记载,发现1757—1774年的历史文献记载了巴里坤作物物候和霜雪事件,根据物候学原理,确认1757—1774年巴里坤存在有温度升高的现象。并根据同时期历史文献中乌鲁木齐的冷暖感应记载,认为1757—1774年的温度升高发生在整个天山北麓地区。结合已有的树木年轮研究成果,并根据当时的人文社会背景进行分析,进而从更宏大的时空尺度上认识此次温度升高在历史文献记载中的具体内涵,认为历史文献记载的1757—1774年温度升高是相对于18世纪10—20年代,而非30—50年代。根据历史文献重建温度变化,必须结合文献形成的历史背景,因为同时期的人文社会背景,会影响到历史文献记载的可靠性。     

全球金融中心的百年竞争:决定金融中心成败的因素及中国金融中心的崛起

本文从全球角度和历史经验论述金融中心发展,尤其是国际金融中心发展的条件、路径和制约因素,并综合"金融地理"、"金融法学"及"时区理论"的观点论述国际金融中心发展及增长。本文并对香港及内地金融中心(上海、北京、深圳)在后金融危机的时代及中国的伟大崛起中的发展机遇,及在全球金融网络的位置及角色和前景作出展望,并对上海建设国际金融中心作出建议。     

枝柳（枝江—柳州）铁路线张家界段线域地质灾害评估

通过全面的野外调查和历史资料统计分析,统计了枝柳线张家界工务段沿线的地质原生灾害、次生灾害和衍生灾害的数量,并研究了各种灾害的分布规律。针对既有线铁路的特征,选取了地质灾害的发育因子、基础因子和诱发因子作为评价指标,并且基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法（AMFP）,对原有方法进行了改进和拓展,形成了既有线铁路的地质灾害＂四度＂法评估方法。由此,分别计算了枝柳线张家界工务段地质灾害的发育度、潜势度、危险度和危害度（简称＂四度＂）,且据此进行了综合分区,为既有线铁路的地质灾害监测和管理提供科学依据。     

First historical evidence of a significant Mt. Etna eruption in 1224

The 1224 Mt. Etna eruption is a significant event both in terms of the mass of erupted materials and because it involved the lower eastern slope of the volcano, reaching down to the sea. Nevertheless, it is unknown to current historical catalogues. According to the historical sources, only two other lava flows actually reached as far as the sea: in 396 BC, just north of the present-day inhabited area of Acireale, according to the geological data alone, and in 1669, when the lava covered the south-eastern flank of Mt. Etna and damaged Catania. We present and discuss the two medieval sources that attest to the eruption of 1224 and make available the original texts. Furthermore, through the close analysis of the historical and topographic context of the Etna area, taking account of the roads and ports in the early 13th century, we have tried to single out the possible area of the lava's outlet into the sea in 1224 on historical grounds. A repeat of an eruption similar to that of 1224 would have a serious impact today as the coast is densely populated.     

Textual research of 1219 A.D. Guyuan earthquake in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China and discussion on its causative structure

On the basis of textual research on the historical earthquake data and the field investigation of 1219 A.D.Guyuan earthquake,we suggest that there is only one strong earthquake occurred in Guyuan area in 1219 A.D.,instead of two or three strong earthquakes.We further suggest that the earthquake parameters recorded in the present earth-quake catalogs are not definite and should be modified.The occurrence time of this earthquake should be about 11 am,August 7,1219 A.D.and the heavily-damaged area of this earthquake,the VIII intensity area,should be lo-cated among the regions of Guyuan,Pingliang and Longde county cities.The epicenter area should be near Gu-yuan city.The magnitude of this earthquake is about 7 and it has intensity about larger than or equal to IX within the epicenter area.The major axis direction of the heavily-damaged area strikes in north-northwest that is ap-proximately consistent with the strike of the Liupan Shan thrust fault zone.The new tectonic activity of the Liupan Shan thrust fault zone resulted in the M7 Guyuan earthquake in 1219 A.D.