Historical and pooled flood frequency analysis for the River Tay at Perth, Scotland

Improved estimates of UK flood risk during a period of increased climatic variability place challenges on existing methods that rely on short instrumental records. This paper examines the value of using historical data (both documentary and epigraphic) to augment existing gauged records for the River Tay at Perth as part of a multi-method approach to assessing flood risk. Single station and pooled methods are compared with flood risk estimates based on an augmented historical series (1815–2000) using the Generalized Logistic and Generalized Pareto distributions. The value of using an even longer, but less reliable, extended historical series (1210–2000) is also examined. It is recommended that modelling flood risk for return periods >100 years should incorporate historical data, where available, and that a multi-method approach using a high threshold Generalized Pareto distribution can also add confidence in flood risk estimates for return periods <100 years based on standard methods.     

Hermann Wilhelm Abich im Kaukasus: Zum zweihundertsten Geburtstag

Hermann Abich was born in 1806 in Berlin and died in 1886 in Graz. He grew up in a wealthy family which had friendly relations with famous scientists like Alexander von Humboldt, Leopold von Buch or Carl Ritter. After his studies in Heidelberg and Berlin he turned to extended fieldwork at the volcanoes of Italy. In 1833–1834 he published excellent petrological/chemical results and got soon a good scientific reputation. Thus he was nominated as Professor for Geology and Mineralogy of the prestigious Russian University in Dorpat (now Tartu, Esthonia) in 1842. In 1844 he was sent to Armenia by the Russian authorities. For the next three decades his fieldwork with about 190 publications was concentrated on the Great and Lesser Caucasus. This was a period of Russian expansion to the South with long-lasting regional fights. But he enjoyed the support of powerful governors. He was an indefatigable and enthusiastic explorer and a precise observer and designer. His interests covered many fields: morphology, glaciology, structural geology, volcanology with Thermal Springs, mineral resources from hydrocarbons, coal, salt to ores, stratigraphy and paleontology as a base for geological maps. But he also gave advice for practical problems, and he was active in meteorology, botany and archaeology. Alltogether he became “the Father of Caucasus Geology”. The following sketch stresses only on three aspects of his activities. He was one of the first pioneers in hydrocarbon exploration, especially around the anticlines with the mud volcanoes near Baku. In many respects, however, his fundamental ideas were erronous. He explained the structure of the Great Caucasus by the traditional theories of Leopold von Buch and Elie de Beaumont. The Caucasus anticline “was elevated by forces acting from beneath”. Following them he tried to discover regularities in the strike of mountain chains. Similarily he treated volcanism like Alexander von Humboldt and Leopold von Buch with their two groups of phenomena: voluminous, mostly basaltic “elevation craters” versus isolated, mostly trachytic and relatively small cones of “true volcanoes”. In spite of the isolation of the Caucasus region he had cultivated continuously contacts with leading geologists in Europe and was honoured by many institutions. He left Russia in 1876 for Vienna planning to write there the final monograph volumes about his investigations but he died before he could complete them.     

基于GIS技术的福州"三坊七巷"保护性改造规划与管理研究

阐述了地理信息系统技术在福州市“三坊七巷”古城保护规划和改造过程中的应用。并就如何利用GIS的丰富表现力与数据分析、空间数据挖掘及城市规划有机结合进行探讨,从而更好地为福州市“三坊七巷”的改造和规划提供辅助决策支持服务。     

历史地震损失重建研究

历史地震损失重建是地震损失预测的一种方法,也是用于区域地震风险分析模型验证的一种手段。在介绍了历史地震损失重建一般方法的基础上,对方法中等效全损住宅比例估计方法以及住宅结构地震易损性指数的估计方法进行了重点分析,给出了这两个关键参数的可选择的多种估计方法。     

由我国历史飞蝗北界记录得到的古气候推断

本文利用我国古代有关飞蝗的文献记录,整理出近1000年来飞蝗记录地域北界变动资料,根据飞蝗的生态习性,推断出飞蝗发生在我国北纬41°以北地区的年份的气温条件指出1162～1177年、1265～1280年和1763～1773年是我国东北地区气候温暖的时段,这分别为南宋气候、中世纪温暖期和小冰期的回暖期提出新的佐证。     

东南沿海地震带b值统计

本文讨论可信的历史地震资料和现代化仪器记录资料的统一使用问题。     

Reconstructing the Palaeoclimate of Jæren, Southwestern Norway, for the Period 1821–1850, from Historical Documentary Records

Documentary data provide long time series and sometimes high-resolution, detailed data from historical times to the present and can give valuable information about palaeoclimate, and for the prediction of future climates. In this paper, documentary data containing qualitative information on climate, in the form of a diary written by the farmer I.G. Grude, and two newspapers, were used for the reconstruction of the palaeoclimate at Jæren, in the county of Rogaland, in southwestern Norway, during the period 1821–50. An index method to quantify the qualitative climate data was developed and used for a low-resolution reconstruction of winter, summer and annual temperatures. A high-resolution climate reconstruction of temperature and precipitation for the winter of 1837/38 is also presented, making use of a method that keeps the climate data in a qualitative form. The climate reconstructions are compared to an instrumental temperature series from Bergen, for the same period. The two data sets are in good agreement except for summer temperature (annual temperature: r = 0.75, winter temperature: r = 0.77, summer temperature: r = 0.44). Compared to average temperatures during 1961–90, the instrumental data from Bergen during the 1821–50 period show slightly different temperatures: annual average was 0.3°C lower, winter 0.4°C lower, and summer 0.1°C lower than at present, implying conditions consistent with the "Little Ice Age" climate.     

旅游地理文献分析

根据国内外近期主要地理和旅游刊物,同时参考有关文献,进行了分析研究,从宏观的角度反映了近期国内外旅游地理研究现状。     

山东地区及其海域近期地震活动特点

本通过对山东地区及其海域的历史地震和近代小震活动的分析，认为该区的历史地震活动，自１６８８年以来存在三个Ｍ≥５级地震活动空段；而１９６０年以来，该区ＭＬ≥４．５级地震具有８年的活跃时间段的特点。