江西省对流云火箭增雨作业个例分析

利用基于日雨量和小时雨量资料的区域历史回归分析方法和基于雷达探测的作业云体单元和对比云体单元的时间序列对比分析方法对江西省两次对流云火箭增雨作业个例进行综合分析,结果表明:两次增雨作业的区域历史回归分析结果均为正效果,且均通过显著性水平检验,但使用日雨量资料和小时雨量资料分析得到的增雨效果差异较大,原因可能是两种雨量资料的时空分布差异较大,火箭作业期间两种雨量资料包含的时间长度不一致;利用雷达探测资料,基于相似理论找出与作业云体单元最相似的对比云体单元,对比分析作业云体单元和对比云体单元在作业前后雷达探测的5个物理量的时间序列变化发现,两次增雨作业中,作业云体单元的5个雷达探测物理量相对于对比云体单元出现了明显的正偏离现象,其中作业云体单元回波体积增加趋势最为突出,增雨效果的物理证据明显。两次对流云火箭增雨作业的雨量区域历史回归分析的正效果与雷达探测的作业云体单元和对比云体单元作业前后时间序列变化的正偏离现象互为印证,较好地展示了对流云火箭作业的增雨效果。     

A city hit by an earthquake: an HGIS approach to reconstructing the damage in Tiberias (Israel) in 1837

On 1 January 1837 a devastating earthquake struck northern Ottoman Palestine, Lebanon and southern Syria, causing considerable damage in many localities. Tiberias, located on the western shores of the Sea of Galilee, suffered badly and many of its inhabitants were injured or perished. Yet, although the earthquake and the resulting damage were described in many contemporary sources, evaluation of the damage and its spatial distribution was never made before. In this study textual and visual sources were collected and compiled to evaluate the damage that resulted. An HGIS (historical GIS) approach was implemented to examine these sources, geo-code the damage and digitally reconstruct Tiberias at the time. The results were a contemporaneous map of Tiberias at the beginning of the nineteenth century and three-dimensional models of the city prior to and after the earthquake. The models enabled a 360º examination of the damage distribution in high resolution and evaluation of the overall impact of the earthquake. This study demonstrates the use of HGIS in the reconstruction of past urban cityscapes and the investigation of earthquake damage. It also suggests extending this methodology to other historical–geographical studies of past landscapes and to the examination of any kind of gradual or dramatic change.     

Agricultural cropland mapping using black-and-white aerial photography,Object-Based Image Analysis and Random Forests

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) conversions have an important impact on land degradation, erosion and water availability. Information on historical land cover (change) is crucial for studying and modelling land- and ecosystem degradation. During the past decades major LULC conversions occurred in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America as a consequence of a growing population and economy. Most distinct is the conversion of natural vegetation into cropland. Historical LULC information can be derived from satellite imagery, but these only date back until approximately 1972. Before the emergence of satellite imagery, landscapes were monitored by black-and-white (B&W) aerial photography. This photography is often visually interpreted, which is a very time-consuming approach. This study presents an innovative, semi-automated method to map cropland acreage from B&W photography. Cropland acreage was mapped on two study sites in Ethiopia and in The Netherlands. For this purpose we used Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) and a Random Forest classification on a set of variables comprising texture, shape, slope, neighbour and spectral information. Overall mapping accuracies attained are 90% and 96% for the two study areas respectively. This mapping method increases the timeline at which historical cropland expansion can be mapped purely from brightness information in B&W photography up to the 1930s, which is beneficial for regions where historical land-use statistics are mostly absent.     

海原断裂干盐池探槽揭示非特征性古地震序列

海原断裂是青藏高原东北缘一条重要的陆内活动左旋走滑断裂,于1920年发生过里氏8?级特大地震,形成约230km的地表破裂带和高达10.2m的同震左旋位移。该断裂的大地震复发行为特征一直是地震地质学家关注的重点,然而现有的认识需要更多以精细沉积地层约束的古地震数据的验证。基于此,在海原断裂中段干盐池盆地成功开挖了数个大型三维探槽,揭露了清晰的韵律性、面状展布地层和丰富的古地震事件证据。在探槽上部2.5m厚的最新细粒沉积层序记录了AD 1500以来的3次地震事件。基于地层中~(14)C样品的结果和历史地震史料的考证,限定这3次地震事件分别对应于AD 1920年、AD 1760年(或1709年)和AD 1638年的地震,但其震级差别很大。除了最新一次地震,即1920年海原大地震的震级为8?级,其他2次地震事件的震级较小,均小于7级,说明海原断裂上伴生有地表破裂的地震不全是特征型地震事件。结果表明,古地震探槽中揭示的地震强度不一定相同,而且中等震级地震也可以产生地表破裂,其地层证据在合适的条件下,如无沉积间断、沉积速率大等环境能在地层中得到保存。     

Quantifying the completeness of and correspondence between two historical maps: a case study from nineteenth-century Palestine

Reconstructing past landscapes from historical maps requires quantifying the accuracy and completeness of these sources. The accuracy and completeness of two historical maps of the same period covering the same area in Israel were examined: the 1:63,360 British Palestine Exploration Fund map (1871–1877) and the 1:100,000 French Levés en Galilée (LG) map (1870). These maps cover the mountainous area of the Galilee (northern Israel), a region with significant natural and topographical diversity, and a long history of human presence. Land-cover features from both maps, as well as the contours drawn on the LG map, were digitized. The overall correspondence between land-cover features shown on both maps was 59% and we found that the geo-referencing method employed (transformation type and source of control points) did not significantly affect these correspondence measures. Both maps show that in the 1870s, 35% of the Galilee was covered by Mediterranean maquis, with less than 8% of the area used for permanent agricultural cropland (e.g., plantations). This article presents how the reliability of the maps was assessed by using two spatial historical sources, and how land-cover classes that were mapped with lower certainty and completeness are identified. Some of the causes that led to observed differences between the maps, including mapping scale, time of year, and the interests of the surveyors, are also identified.     

Using historical maps to analyze two hundred years of land cover changes: case study of Sorrento peninsula (south Italy)

Historical maps are effective sources of geographical information and useful for historical and territorial research. In this study, the examination of landscape dynamics on the basis of historical maps over a period of more than 200 years was conducted. The study area is Sorrento peninsula and part of the near Sarno river basin in South Italy. This study provides a general framework for the assessment of the overall quality and accuracy of historical maps. The application of the methodology used in this specific case study can contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of the landscape in the long term. The derived knowledge can be applied in the planning of the landscape in order to implement correct conservation strategies. The comparison was made on four maps 1817, 1875, 1960, and 2006. Geodetic accuracy of the sheet maps of 1817 and 1875 offer a right basis for a macro analysis of land cover dynamics, evaluating conversion from one land cover category to another. Main transformation, identified in the period between 1875 and 1960, was the disappearance of vineyards, which covered 25% of the total study area in 1875. Agricultural areas increased in this period to cover 57% of the total area.     

African Fire Cultures,Cattle Ranching,and Colonial Landscape Transformations in the Neotropics

Fire regimes emerge partly from human activities that reflect cultural‐ecological knowledge of the relationships among fire, vegetation, grazing, climate, and other variables, as well as social relations. More knowledge of such “fire cultures,” past and present, therefore remains necessary to better understand the causes and persistent consequences of landscape burning. In the neotropics, people have used fire for centuries to manage livestock pastures. Conventional wisdom has long posited that such practices derived solely from antecedent European and indigenous, Native American fire cultures. Analysis of accounts of rangeland burning from throughout the neotropics during colonial times, however, demonstrates that ranchers incorporated African fire cultures and that the timing of burning shifted from early during the dry season in the sixteenth century to late during the dry season by the nineteenth century.     

Long‐term spatial dynamics in vegetated seascapes: fragmentation and habitat loss in a human‐impacted subtropical lagoon

Vegetated coastal seascapes exhibit dynamic spatial patterning, some of which is directly linked to human coastal activities. Human activities (e.g. coastal development) have modified freshwater flow to marine environments, resulting in significant changes to submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities. Yet, very little is known about the spatially complex process of SAV habitat loss and fragmentation that affects ecosystem function. Using habitat mapping from aerial photography spanning 71 years (1938–2009) for Biscayne Bay (Florida, USA), we quantify both SAV habitat loss and fragmentation using a novel fragmentation index. To understand the influence of water management practices on SAV seascapes, habitat loss and fragmentation were compared between nearshore and offshore locations, as well as locations adjacent to and distant from canals that transport freshwater into the marine environment. Habitat loss and fragmentation were significantly higher along the shoreline compared with offshore seascapes. Nearshore habitats experienced a net loss of 3.31% of the total SAV mapped (2.57 km²) over the time series. While areas adjacent to canals had significantly higher SAV cover, they still experienced wide fluctuations in cover and fragmentation over time. All sites exhibited higher fragmentation in 2009 compared with 1938, with four sites exhibiting high fragmentation levels between the 1990s and 2000s. We demonstrate that freshwater inputs into coastal bays modify the amount of SAV and the fragmentation dynamics of SAV habitats. Spatial changes are greater close to shore and canals, indicating that these coastal developments have transformative impacts on vegetated habitats, with undetermined consequences for the provisioning of ecosystem goods and services.     

高密度建筑群及超高建筑物对风环境影响的风洞试验

利用风洞试验方法,以上海陆家嘴金融贸易区建筑群及上海中心大厦为研究对象,讨论了不同粗糙度、不同风向条件下,高密度建筑群和超高建筑物对风环境的影响。结果表明:1)地表粗糙度越小,大风区范围越大。此外,建筑群的分布、排列形式会明显改变来流走向。2)超高建筑物由于其形态上下不一致,在一定条件下,不同高度处的风矢量存在明显差异。3)参照国外建筑物风环境舒适度评估标准,对模拟区域内行人高度处的舒适度进行了评估,并给出了3个风环境较差的区域。     

Am improved source mechanism for the 1935 Timiskaming,Quebec earthquake from regional waveforms

The Timiskaming earthquake, which occurred near the Quebec-Ontario border at the northwest end of the Western Quebec seismic zone in 1935, is one of the five largest instrumentally recorded southeastern Canadian earthquakes. Previous studies of this earthquake concentrated on modeling teismograms recorded at regional distances, a better constrained focal mechanism is obtained. The waveforms indicate thrust faulting on a moderately dipping northwest striking plane at a depth of 10 km. TheM _w of 6.1 determined in this study is in good agreement with previous magnitude estimates (m _b 6.1,M _s 6.0, andm _bLg 6.2–6.3). The focal mechanism is similar to those of many recent small to moderate earthquakes in the region, and the inferred (from theP axis) acting stress of northeast compression is consistent with the overall eastern North American stress field. The Lake Timiskaming Rift Valley in which the earthquake occurred, comprises several northwest striking faults consistent with the strike of the 1935 event. Thus, the 1935 earthquake appears to be a result of faulting on the reactivated Timiskaming graben.