地史重大转折期的环境变化学术讨论会综述

概述了地史重大转折期的环境变化学术讨论会４个方面的主要科学内容：古生代与中生代之交的全球环境变化,泥贫纪弗拉期与法门期之交的全球环境变化,元古宙与显生宙之交扔全球环境变化和地史重大转折期环境变化的研究方法。围绕上述内容,评述了发言人和专题发言人的主要科学资料和科学思想以及本次会议形成的共识。     

Damage distribution during the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake relative to generalized categories of surficial geology

The spatial distributions of severely damaged buildings (red-tagged) and of breaks in the water distribution system following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (M_L = 6·4) are investigated relative to the local characteristics of surficial geology. The pipe breaks are used as an indicator of nonlinear soil response, and the red-tagged buildings as indicator of severe shaking. The surficial geology is described by several generalized categories based on age, textural character and thickness of the near surface layer. Two regions are studied: the San Fernando Valley and Los Angeles-Santa Monica. The analysis shows that there is no simple correlation between damage patterns and surficial geology. Single family wood-frame buildings were damaged less when built on fine silt and clay (0–3 m thick) from the late Holocene.     

The relationship between the earthquakes of Ningbo area and the Neotectonic movement

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Average Annual Temperature Changes in the Holocene in China

In 1876 Blytt proposed a post-glacial climatic classification, maintaining that the then temperature fluctuated 1- 2℃ higher or lower than that today. Lamb (1969) held that in Europe " the axis of the subtropical high pressure belt was generally displaced north by about 10° latitudes" during the Hypsithermal and that the temperature was three to six times higher than that in the postglacial period.In China, there appear relict beachrocks (living fossils) in tropical tidal zones from the Bohai Bay (40° N) to coastal areas in South China. Many relict tropical marine fossils were discovered, such as Ostrea gigas in Tianjin (which is larger than that found today in Hainan), Placuna placenta in Zhejiang and Spondylus sp. in Fujian. In Hebei, Henan and Zhejiang provinces and Guilin of Guangxi, such tropical fossil animals as Elephas maximus and Rhinoceros sp, were discovered, and in Hebei and Jiangsu provinces such fresh water fossils as Unio douglasiae were found. Their living species are still seen in So     

历史时期关中地区气候变化的初步研究

关中地区地理位置特殊,是中华民族的一个重要发祥地,历史时期气候曾发生多次明显的变化。通过对这一地区考古发掘、抱粉分析研究成果以及丰富的史籍文献、地方志等资料的收集、整理、分析,划分出全新世早期寒冷、全新世中期暖湿、西周冷干、春秋至西汉前期暖润、西汉后期至北朝凉干、隋和唐前中期暖润、唐后期至北宋凉干、金前期温干、金后期和元凉干、明清冷干等10个气候变化阶段,从而建立起该地区历史时期完整的气候变化序列。     

用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测

本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。     

工业相机在历史航片数字化中的应用

航空摄影胶片作为历史档案的一种,详细地记录了城市规模、设施等地貌信息变迁。因胶片材质保质期有限,有必要将其进行数字化永久保存。传统的扫描手段效率过低,随着一亿及以上像素的工业级别相机的诞生,使得拍照代替扫描成为可能。本文采用自行制作高精度大幅面胶片翻拍仪,通过精确校检获取准确改正参数,并结合计算机后处理,完成了昆明市2期约8500张历史航空摄影胶片的数字化试验,成果各项指标均符合要求,达到了项目预期目的。     

刍议《重庆历史地图集》第二卷的编制

以《重庆历史地图集》第二卷编制的具体情况为例,对图集的开本设计、内容结构设计、封面和版式设计、整体设计、创新源,以及图集编制取得的经验进行了论述,为以后类似图集的编制提供参考。     

Evaluation of the Historical Sampling Error for Global Models

Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach.     

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.