江淮流域夏季降水的准两年振荡特征及其关联因子分析

利用1951—2010年我国江淮流域11个测站夏季(6—8月)降水资料和NCAR提供的北半球月平均海平面气压场资料以及相关的西太平洋副高指数资料,采用Morlet小波变换、交叉小波变换及相关分析等方法讨论了降水准两年振荡现象的年际变化规律及其与东亚夏季风、副高的关系。结果表明,准两年振荡分量在江淮地区夏季降水场的年际振荡中十分重要,且经历了由强到弱再到强的变化过程;同时降水与夏季风强度及副高脊线位置的准两年变化均存在较好的同期相关,彼此间的相互影响还体现在年际尺度上,并分别在4 a和1 a时间尺度上有明显的滞后、超前关系。     

2012年7月末天津暴雨过程的扰动特征

利用多普勒雷达和风廓线雷达资料,辅以高分辨率的地面自动气象站资料,对2012年7月25—26日天津地区的一次大暴雨(局部特大暴雨)过程进行扰动特征分析。结果表明:1)大暴雨过程的雷达回波表现为高质心结构,气旋式辐合与对流中上升气流及后侧下沉气流紧密相连,表现出较好的对流组织性,也预示强降雨将持续发展。逆风区的维持与伸展的高度可作为暴雨预报的先兆信号。2)地面辐合线与雷达回波上对流单体出现"列车效应"的区域有很好的一致性。地面形成的气旋性闭合环流和中小尺度环流辐合作用的稳定维持是产生大暴雨的重要因素。3)由风廓线资料可详细分析出暴雨过程中低空急流及边界层急流的扰动过程。在强降雨发生前,急流强度明显增强,与雷达回波上的"列车效应"是一致的,但比雷达更早出现。风廓线资料中低空急流和边界层急流的增强态势,对大暴雨短时临近预报具有很好的指示意义。     

广西沿海超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估必要性

通过列举国内外超高层建筑遭受气象灾害的案例,结合广西气象灾害风险区划资料,分析大风、台风、龙卷风、暴雨、雷电（雷击）、强降温等灾害与沿海超高层建筑的关系,以及可能造成的影响和潜在的风险,论述了超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估可实现最大安全与最小投资的统一.以期为广西沿海开展“超高层建筑气象灾害风险评估”工作提供理由和依据.     

高频表面波对定常Ekman流解的影响

基于Jenkins(1989)建立的包含Stokes漂流、风输入和波耗散影响的修正Ekman模型,采用Paskyabi等(2012)使用的推广的Donelan等(1987)中的谱和波耗散函数,并利用Paskyabi等(2012)中修正方法给出的包含高频波的风输入函数,在粘性不依赖于水深及粘性随深度线性变化的条件下,研究了包含高频毛细重力波的随机表面波对Stokes漂流和Song(2009)导出的波浪修正定常Ekman流解的影响。结果表明高频表面波使Stokes漂流在海表面剪切加强,对定常Ekamn流解的影响通常不能忽略,但对Ekman流场的角度偏转影响很小。最后,将考虑高频表面波尾谱影响所估算的定常Ekman流解与已有观测结果以及经典Ekman解进行了比对分析。     

基于ROMS模式利用集合最优插值同化沿轨海表面高度异常数据的研究

The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.     

渤海风暴减水特征及其对深水航路影响的数值模拟

利用环渤海9个沿岸站近10a潮位资料分析渤海海域的风暴减水特征,结果表明:渤海年均出现50cm和100cm风暴减水分别超过30d和6d,每年的9月至翌年4月份风暴减水最为频繁;建立了一套精细化天文潮-风暴潮耦合模型用于渤海深水航路的潮位预报,各站天文潮模拟验证的平均均方根误差为18.5cm,由此计算得到航路代表点的潮汐特征值并作潮汐预报;后报模拟了近10a重大风暴减水过程,模拟与实测吻合较好,说明该耦合模型可为该航路的潮位预报提供有益参考。     

中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系

利用中国沿海台站潮位和中国近海及赤道太平洋的卫星测高、海表温度、风及气压资料,分析了中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系。分析结果表明:中国沿海海平面季节变化受ENSO影响明显,在厄尔尼诺事件期间,中国沿海海平面Sa分潮的振幅明显减小,其中年振幅的历史极小值均出现厄尔尼诺年,不同区域历史极小值出现的年份不同;另外,中国沿海Sa分潮的振幅对厄尔尼诺事件的响应与其强弱有关,在强事件中,响应区域和幅度较大,弱事件中,响应区域和幅度偏小。在厄尔尼诺年,中国沿海海平面多低于相邻年份,并且其年际变化存在明显的2~3a、4~7a、准9a、11a和准19a的周期,其中4~7a的周期在冬春季节震荡最显著,其震荡幅度接近2cm。中国近海海平面与赤道东太平洋区域的海表温度年际变化之间存在反相关关系,其相关系数为-0.42;同时与Nio4和Nio3.4指数序列也呈现反相关关系。针对典型的1997/1998年尼诺事件发生前后的风场和气压场分析发现,尼诺发生前的冬半年,冬季风偏强,气压梯度加强,中国沿海海平面偏低;到了厄尔尼诺的盛期,出现较强的南风异常,气压梯度反向,季风转向,过渡到了厄尔尼诺事件的衰减期,为拉尼娜事件做准备,此时海平面偏高。     

Lacustrine basin unconventional resource plays: Key differences

There has been a revival in hydrocarbon source rock characterization and development associated with growing interest in unconventional resources, where these fine-grained organic-rich rocks act as both source and reservoir. To-date, the exploration focus on shale reservoirs has been largely on marine systems. Lacustrine source rocks for conventional resources are geographically important, dominating regions such as China, Indonesia, and Brazil's resource-base. However, they have been generally untested for unconventional resources.There are a number of key differences in the nature of these hydrocarbon systems that should be considered when assessing whether lacustrine systems may represent future unconventional opportunities in areas where the conventional resource-base is dominated by lacustrine-sourced oil. Among the key differences between these depositional systems is the greater sensitivity to high frequency climatic variability within lacustrine systems. Lacustrine systems are highly sensitive to changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation, which may lead to rapid changes in lake level, potentially exceeding 600 m. These changes in depositional conditions are geologically rapid and may occur over periods of thousands of years. Such changes can reduce the areal extent of potentially thick source rock intervals to only those portions of a basin where a permanent deep lake was present. Thus the core unconventional target area may be geographically limited compared with their marine counterpart. Although potentially areally limited, a review of many lacustrine source rocks suggests that their thicknesses are often significantly greater than marine source rocks. An examination of the more distal portions of lacustrine systems, where better source rock potential is present reveals that there is generally limited connectivity between source and conventional reservoir. In these settings, such as the Wind River basin (Waltman Shale), the hydrocarbons remain trapped within the shales, potentially leading to over-pressured hydrocarbon charged systems. Such conditions suggest that although areally limited, viable unconventional targets may exist, if suitable reservoir conditions are present. Finally, the character of the oils produced is different in these settings, with lacustrine oils being waxy and displaying different hydrocarbon generation and cracking kinetics. High wax oils display distinct flow characteristics, being more viscous, and may offer different production challenges than their non-waxy marine equivalents. Additionally, differences in their cracking kinetics may indicate that the timing of gas generation for shale gas plays may differ significantly from marine systems.     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene seismic stratigraphy of Nha Trang shelf,central Vietnam

The late Pleistocene–Holocene stratigraphic architecture on the steep and narrow shelf off Nha Trang, central Vietnam has been explored by high resolution seismic profiles integrated with sediment core data. Sequence stratigraphic results reveal five major seismic units and three bounding surfaces which are composed of two distinctive sequences. Those sequences are bounded by two regional unconformities (SB1, SB2) which have been formed in respond to different sea-level regimes. The revealed relict beach–ridge deposits at water depth of about ∼130 m below the present water depth indicate that the Last Glacial Lowstand (LGM) sea-level in this area was lower than in neighboring areas and it probably resulted from subsidence due to high sedimentation rate and/or neotectonic movements of the East Vietnam Fault System. The late Pleistocene high amplitude of sea-level change during a long fourth-order and superimposed by shorter fifth-order cycle is the principal factor in reorganizing the formation of the Nha Trang continental shelf sequence. Other local controlling factors as fluctuations in sediment supply, morphological variations of the LGM surface, subsidence rate and hydrodynamic conditions provided the distinctive features of the Nha Trang shelf sequence stratigraphic model in comparison with neighboring other areas.     

福建沿海年平均海平面年际、年代际变化特征及预测

利用福建沿海4个验潮站实测潮位资料,在分析实测资料变化趋势的基础上,采用谱分析的方法分析年平均海平面的变化趋势,得到了4个站年平均海平面变化模型,并对未来50年福建沿海的海平面上升趋势进行预测。