中长期地震预测方案综合信度评价的层次分析法

由于存在各种复杂的不确定因素的影响，正确合理地评价地震观测结果的可信度，具有一定的难度。本文首先引入具有广泛应用途的层次分析法，并以华北北部为例，结合Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ专家咨询结果，给出了反映各个预测方案结果的可信度及具有满意一致性的相对重要性权系数。其结果可作为综合各种预测方案，确定该地区中长期地震危险区的参考依据。     

Geomorphological study on a clastic accretionary prism: The Nankai Trough

Abstract The Nankai Trough, off southwest Japan, is one of the best sites for the study of geomorphic characteristics of a clastic accretionary prism. A recent multibeam survey over the central and eastern parts of the Nankai accretionary prism has revealed a large variation of the topography along the trough axis. Analysis of the bathymetric data suggests the existence of prism deformational features of different scales, such as depressions, embayment structures and cusps. These structures are the results of slope instability caused by basement relief of subducted oceanic plate. Unstable slopes recover by new accretion and development of a low angle thrust. Small-scale deformation due to the subduction of a small isolated seamount is then adjusted to the regional trend. By contrast, a 30 km indentation of the wedge observed in the eastern part of the Nankai Trough, the Tenryu Cusp, has seemed to retain its geometry. The subducted Philippine Sea plate has deformed greatly near the eastern end of the Nankai Trough, because of the collision between the Izu-Ogasawara (Bonin) arc and central Japan. Therefore, the indentation may be the result of the continuous subduction of a basement high, such as the Zenisu Ridge, which has been formed under north-south compression due to the arc-arc collision.     

闽东南大陆边缘构造特征及泉州海外大震构造环境分析

闽东南大陆边缘构造活动，自晚更新世以来，断裂活动以继承性差异升降作为主要特点，本文分析了１６０４年１２月２９日泉州海外８级大震与该区断裂活动的关系，并对该次大震震源断层面错动方式进行了讨论。     

Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.     

A three‐component end‐member analysis of streamwater hydrochemistry in a small Japanese forested headwater catchment

Intensive water sampling in conjunction with hydrological observations was conducted during three different rainstorms in order to understand the effects of rainfall events on the temporal variation of streamwater chemistry in a small headwater forest catchment. Concentrations of Na⁺ and SO₄^2? decreased as the discharge rate increased. Hydrograph separation of the components was made using the three‐component model based on the end‐members mixing analysis (EMMA). The three end‐members were:

• 1 the groundwater in the saturated zone that prescribes the chemistry of the baseflow;
• 2 the throughfall that dilutes the streamwater;
• 3 the groundwater in the transient saturated zone prescribed, which was dependent on the groundwater level.

When the groundwater level was lower, only the two components, groundwater in the saturated zone and throughfall, affected the streamwater chemistry. When the groundwater level rose and the saturated zone spread, the groundwater in the transient saturated zone became the third component. When the groundwater in the transient saturated zone contributed to the discharge, this component became the dominant source and the streamwater chemistry was affected by the groundwater chemistry in the transient saturated zone. When this component was discharged as the saturation overland flow, the streamwater chemistry was greatly affected by this component. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Allocating local groundwater monitoring stations for South Korea using an analytic hierarchy process

A national groundwater-monitoring network consisting of 320 stations has been operated by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation and the Korea Water Resources Corporation since 1995. The network was established as a result of the Groundwater Act of Korea, and a supplementary local groundwater monitoring network containing 10,000 stations will be established throughout the country by the year 2011. A method of allocating stations and organizing the local monitoring network has been developed, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), using pairwise comparison. Several evaluation criteria were selected for determining the required number of the monitoring stations at specific local districts. Weights of the selected criteria were assigned by the pairwise comparison, reflecting hydrogeological conditions and supported by pertinent questions to 93 groundwater experts. To evaluate appropriateness of this method, an example city, Jeonju, was selected where groundwater levels were monitored; seven stations were determined as to be required for the supplementary groundwater-monitoring network. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the AHP. The concepts of the development and the structure of the AHP model can be applied to site or well selections within a particular district.     

高山树线交错带的景观格局与生态过程

由于对气候变化的敏感性, 近年来高山树线交错带成为全球变化研究中的热点问题。高 山树线交错带所指示的是一个复杂生态系统的特征, 反映出了由低处植被向高山植被的转化, 其 景观格局是综合了种子定居, 树木生长以及树木繁殖等多个树木生态过程和特定高山环境下的 地理特征格局的适应结果。一方面, 树木通过自身生理生态学上的调整对高山极端环境进行适 应。一方面, 高山特定地理环境特征对树线的景观格局进行影响, 因而高山树线交错带成为研究 景观格局- 生态过程相互关系的一个重要载体。通过运用3S 技术, 可以将高山树线交错带研究中 的树线景观结构和生理生态过程结合在一起, 并验证在其景观格局形成过程中地理特征和人为 因子的相对重要性。     

分区统计地图上符号的视觉搜寻和认知工效研究

根据某地区的分区统计数据和有关图集，总结设计出4种方案的分区统计地图，在自行编制的认知测试软件上进行了目标搜寻测试，结果表明，在分区统计地图上搜寻目标时，视觉系统运用了平行加工策略和序列加工策略，4个方案的目标搜寻平均反应时间和正确率受到这两种策略的影响。     

造山带构造研究中几个重要学术概念问题的讨论

简要分析和评述了造山带构造研究中的几个重要学术概念问题：造山带，造山带类型、造山作用和造山过程、造山带构造格局、造山作用模式。指出不宜将造山带定义直接与板块边缘构造位置和板块间相互作用联系在一起；造山作用和造山带不仅出现在板块之间相互作用的地带，而且可以出现在远离板边界的地方－－即所谓板内造山带。强调了板内造山带研究的重要性，提出了确定板内造山的主要依据，指出在造山带分类、造山带构造山带。强调了板内造山带研究的重要性，提出了确定内造山带的主要依据，指出在造山带分类、造山带构造格局和造山作用过程中应充分注意内造山带的客观存在，以及板内造山带成因动力机制研究中需要着重考虑的重要方面。     

福建邱村金矿床控矿因素及成因

邱村金矿矿体严格受构造、次火山岩、次火山隐爆角砾岩控制，通过对矿石黄铁矿Pb、S同位素分析以及相邻矿区成矿温度的对比研究，金矿成矿物质来源于元古宇麻源群深变质岩系，成矿热液来源于火山岩浆期后分异的热液，该矿床属火山岩中－低温热液型金矿床。