Intra-archipelago moult dispersion of southern elephant seals at the Prince Edward Islands,southern Indian Ocean

During three summer surveys at Prince Edward Island (PEI), southern Indian Ocean (2001, 2004 and 2008), 416 southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina were inspected for identification tags. In all, 42 seals that had been tagged as weaned pups at their natal site were found on Marion Island (MI), 38 of which could be individually identified by resighting their tag numbers. The majority of the MI-tagged seals were yearlings or subadults, and all but one were hauled out at PEI for the annual moult. The attendance rate of the known individuals at their natal island during the annual moult was only 40%, based on their resighting histories. This was significantly lower than the 77 ± 6% moult attendance rate estimated for a random MI population sample drawn from the same cohorts (based on 10 000 replications). Annual resight probabilities (considering all haulout phases) was 58% per annum for the MI seals seen at PEI, and 80 ± 4% for the simulation. Seasonal and annual absences of seals from MI violate the ‘homogeneity of capture’ assumption of mark-recapture models. When multiple sightings during any year are treated as a single sighting, resights during other haulouts (e.g. breeding) compensate only partially for absences during the moult. Therefore, mark-recapture studies undertaken in archipelagos should ideally include both marking and resighting of individuals on all islands which will allow discrimination between mortality and local migration.     

Point Cumulative Semivariogram for Identification of Heterogeneities in Regional Seismicity of Turkey

Geological events are neither isotropic nor homogeneous in their occurrences. These two properties present difficulties for spatial modeling of regionalized variables. This paper presents a point cumulative semivariogram (PCSV) technique for quantifying the heterogeneity characteristics of the phenomenon concerned. The basis of the methodology is to obtain experimental PCSVs for each measurement point which led to estimation of radius of influence around each site. In addition, the experimental PCSVs provide basic information about the heterogeneity of the geological variable in the region, and furthermore many useful interpretations can be made concerning the regional variability of the variable. It provides the measure of cumulative similarity of a regional variable around any measurement site. Because PCSV is a means of measuring total similarity, maps at fixed similarity levels are provided in order to document the regional heterogeneity. Identification of heterogeneities depends on the comparison of fixed PCSV values at a multitude of irregularly scattered sites. The PCSV methodology has been applied to the regional seismic data of Turkey.     

Generating non-stationary random fields of auto-correlated,normally distributed CPT profile by matrix decomposition method

This paper emphasises the true realisation of Cone Penetration Test (CPT) profiles considering non-stationary nature of the data. Formulation of stationary random field theory has been modified and adapted to non-stationary state in order to take into account the mean and variance variability for soil properties. Multi-variance correlation matrix along with the Cholesky decomposition technique was employed to produce realisations of non-homogenous and non-stationary random fields of CPT profiles. A piecewise and segmental data realisation according to the lithology and site class specifications acquired directly from CPT data is adopted in this study so as to render an accurate data simulation. For validation of proposed method 8 CPT test profiles collected from Urmia Lake site have been introduced and simulated by the stationary and non-stationary algorithms. The mean correlation coefficient between the actual CPT data profiles and related realisations along with some other important statistical parameters and their coefficients of variation strongly demonstrate that non-stationary random field generation technique gives quite better accuracy, by comparison to the conventional stationary random field generation scheme.     

松辽盆地北部三肇凹陷升554断块特低渗油气储层流动单元研究

油气储层流动单元在高、中、低渗储层表征中已经得到普遍应用,但在特低渗储层研究中仍然很少涉及.以松辽盆地北部三肇凹陷升554断块下白垩统泉头组四段扶余油层特低渗储层为例,划分出E、G、P三种流动单元类型,从E类至P类流动单元,渗流能力逐渐减小.流动单元物性特征、空间分布特征均表明流动单元储层非均质性较强.分析了沉积相及开...     

数字经济发展对城市碳排放影响的空间效应

为探讨数字经济对城市碳排放影响的空间效应,基于2011—2017年286个城市面板数据综合测度数字经济发展水平,运用空间杜宾模型及空间DID模型分析数字经济发展对城市碳排放的影响。主要得到以下结论：① 数字经济发展存在明显的空间异质性,发展格局从“多点式”零星分布向“组团式”聚集形态转变,但各城市发展层级差距仍未改善,长三角成为重要的数字经济高水平集聚区。② 数字经济发展显著改善了城市碳排放,通过引入“智慧城市”这一外生政策冲击进行检验,发现结论具有稳健性,而且这种效应存在明显的空间异质性,东部地区数字经济发展对碳排放的负向影响作用较强,位于城市群内部的区域受数字经济的影响更大。③ 数字经济发展对碳排放的作用在不同经济圈层内有所差异,空间外溢具有边界效应,在1100km处外溢达到峰值。④ 数字产业发展、数字创新能力以及数字普惠金融是数字经济影响城市碳排放效应发挥的重要因素。     

坪北油田延长组长6油组储层层内非均质性研究

在坪北油田应用岩心观察、岩心分析化验资料、测井解释成果、测试及开发动态等方面的资料分析长6储层的非均质性,重点解剖层内非均质性特点,总结了正韵律,反韵律,复合韵律和交互韵律4种类型的层内非均质性。夹层分布较广泛,加剧了层间非均质性。     

哥伦比亚Ombu区Kc组裂缝描述和地质建模

裂缝对改善低渗透碎屑岩储层物性有非常重要的作用,裂缝发育规律和控制因素的研究直接影响着开发方案部署和油藏开发效果。在盆地分析和储层研究基础上,利用层序地层和地质统计学方法,分析了Kc组裂缝与区域构造应力、沉积相和岩性的关系。受区域压扭作用影响,区域上发育北东和北西方向两组影响裂缝的地应力,形成了以北东方向为主的高角度裂缝。不同沉积相带和不同岩性储层裂缝发育也有差异,扇中和扇缘亚相裂缝较扇根亚相发育、砂岩较砾岩裂缝发育。在这种地质认识基础上,建立了裂缝三维地质模型。     

大庆油田北部河流相储层沉积微相与水淹特征

大庆油田北部发育砂质辫状河道、曲流河道、高弯度分流河道和低弯度分流河道等砂体类型。以井间可对比的单一河流沉积物为研究单元 ,从河流相储层成因特征入手 ,应用油田开发后期密井网资料开展各类河流砂体细分微相研究。重点阐述了各类砂体的规模、宽厚比、发育的主要微相、物性特征及层内非均质特点。应用不同时期密闭取心检查井资料、测井水淹解释、生产动态测试资料 ,结合不同砂体和微相的非均质特点研究了不同微相的水淹变化特征。研究结果表明 ,不同阶段各类砂体层内及平面水淹变化特征不同 ,高含水后期剩余油主要分布于河间薄层砂、部分决口水道和废弃河道微相中 ,低弯度分流河道砂体中剩余油相对发育     

新疆玛纳斯河年径流时序特征分析

基于肯斯瓦特水文站54 a的逐月径流实测资料,运用参数、非参数检验和R/S分析探讨了玛纳斯河径流量的趋势、跃变及未来的变化趋势,并利用径流量年内分配特征指数描述了径流量年内分配状况。结果表明,玛纳斯河径流量在1995年发生跳跃式的突变,并达到极显著水平,这也与径流量累积距平显示的结果一致;径流量的赫斯特指数大于0.5,具有持续性,预示其未来变化仍将保持增加走势;计算表明,玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特站径流量高度集中于夏季(6、7、8月),年内分配指数中的集中度比不均匀系数具有更强的分辨能力与灵敏性,集中期所对应的最大径流量出现时间与实际月份相同,并且各特征指数间存在关联性。     

1982-2006年中国东部春季植被变化(英文)

Vegetation greenness is a key indicator of terrestrial vegetation activity. To under-stand the variation in vegetation activity in spring across eastern China (EC), we analysed the variation in the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April to May during 1982-2006. The regional mean NDVI across EC increased at the rate of 0.02/10yr (r2=0.28; p=0.024) prior to 1998; the increase ceased, and the NDVI dropped to a low level thereafter. However, the processes of variation in the NDVI were different from one region to another. In the North China Plain, a cultivated area, the NDVI increased (0.03/10yr; r2=0.52; p<0.001) from 1982 to 2006. In contrast, the NDVI decreased (-0.02/10yr; r2=0.24; p=0.014) consecu-tively from 1982 to 2006 in the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas, two regions of rapid urbanisation. In the eastern region of the Inner Mongolian Plateau and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in East China, the NDVI increased prior to 1998 and decreased thereafter. In the Hulun Buir area and the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin, the NDVI increased prior to 1998 and remained static thereafter. The NDVI in the grasslands and croplands in the semi-humid and semi-arid areas showed a significant positive correlation with precipitation, while the NDVI in the woodlands in the humid to semi-humid areas showed a significant positive correlation with temperature. As much as 60% of the variation in the NDVI was ex-plained by either precipitation or temperature.