Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved spatial delineation of streambed properties and water fluxes using distributed temperature sensing

A new method was developed for analysing and delineating streambed water fluxes, flow conditions and hydraulic properties using coiled fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing or closely spaced discrete temperature sensors. This method allows for a thorough treatment of the spatial information embedded in temperature data by creating a matrix visualization of all possible sensor pairs. Application of the method to a 5‐day field dataset reveals the complexity of shallow streambed thermal regimes. To understand how velocity estimates are affected by violations of assumptions of one‐dimensional, saturated, homogeneous flow and to aid in the interpretation of field observations, the method was also applied to temperature data generated by numerical models of common field conditions: horizontal layering, presence of lateral flow and variable streambed saturation. The results show that each condition creates a distinct signature visible in the triangular matrices. The matrices are used to perform a comparison of the behaviour of one‐dimensional analytical heat‐tracing models. The results show that the amplitude ratio‐based method of velocity calculation leads to the most reliable estimates. The minimum sensor spacing required to obtain reliable velocity estimates with discrete sensors is also investigated using field data. The developed method will aid future heat‐tracing studies by providing a technique for visualizing and comparing results from fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing installations and testing the robustness of analytical heat‐tracing models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A long‐lived metamorphic history in the contact aureole of the Mooselookmeguntic pluton revealed by in situ dating of monazite grains preserved as inclusions in staurolite porphyroblasts

Emplacement of the Mooselookmeguntic pluton, located in the western Maine region of the northern Appalachians, was thought to have occurred towards the end of the Acadian deformation at around 370 Ma. Crystallization ages from different parts of the pluton suggest a more sequential emplacement history over a period of c. 20 Myr. Foliation inflection/intersection axes (FIAs) within porphyroblasts from its aureole reveal at least five periods of garnet and staurolite growth. The orientation of FIAs in both garnet and staurolite porphyroblasts trend successively from ESE–WNW, NNW–SSE, E–W, ENE–WSW to NE–SW. Electron probe microanalysis dating of monazite grains included in staurolite porphyroblasts containing one of these five periods of FIA development reveals a succession of apparent ages from 410 Ma to 345 Ma. A similar spread of crystallization ages can be observed for plutons from Maine and adjacent regions. This succession indicates that deformation and metamorphism began well before and continued long after what is classically regarded as the Acadian orogeny. The thermal structure of the orogen progressively evolved to enable pluton emplacement, and it continued to develop afterwards with magmatic fluids still forming at depth.     

Structural geometry and controls on basement‐involved deformation in the northern Flinders Ranges,Adelaide Fold Belt,South Australia

In the northern Flinders Ranges, Neoproterozoic and Cambrian sedimentary rocks were deformed and variably metamorphosed during the ca 500 Ma Cambro‐Ordovician Delamerian Orogeny. Balanced and restored structural sections across the northern Flinders Ranges show shortening of about 10–20%. Despite the presence of suitable evaporitic detachment horizons at the basement‐cover interface, the structural style is best interpreted to be thick‐skinned involving basement with only a minor proportion of the overall shortening accommodated along stratigraphically controlled detachments. Much of the contractional deformation was localised by the inversion of former extensional faults such as the Norwest and Paralana Faults, which both controlled the deposition of Neoproterozoic cover successions. As such, both faults represent major, long‐lived structures which effectively define the present boundaries of the northern Flinders Ranges with the Gawler Craton to the west and the Curnamona Craton to the east. The most intense deformation, which resulted in exhumation of the basement along the Paralana Fault to form the Mt Painter and Babbage Inliers, coincides with extremely high heat flows related to extraordinarily high heat‐production rates in the basement rocks. High heat flow in the northern Flinders Ranges suggests that the structural style not only reflects the pre‐Delamerian basin architecture but is also a consequence of the reactivation of thermally perturbed, weakened basement.     

Long-Term Variability of the Wind Field over the Indian Ocean Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis

A detailed study of long-term variability of winds using 30 years of data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) over the Indian Ocean has been carried out by partitioning the Indian Ocean into six zones based on local wind extrema. The trend of mean annual wind speed averaged over each zone shows a significant increase in the equatorial region, the Southern Ocean, and the southern part of the trade winds. This indicates that the Southern Ocean winds and the southeast trade winds are becoming stronger. However, the trend for the Bay of Bengal is negative, which might be caused by a weakening of the monsoon winds and northeast trade winds. Maximum interannual variability occurs in the Arabian Sea due to monsoon activity; a minimum is observed in the subtropical region because of the divergence of winds. Wind speed variations in all zones are weakly correlated with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). However, the equatorial Indian Ocean, the southern part of the trade winds, and subtropical zones show a relatively strong positive correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), indicating that the SOI has a zonal influence on wind speed in the Indian Ocean. Monsoon winds have a decreasing trend in the northern Indian Ocean, indicating monsoon weakening, and an increasing trend in the equatorial region because of enhancement of the westerlies. The negative trend observed during the non-monsoon period could be a result of weakening of the northeast trade winds over the past few decades. The mean flux of kinetic energy of wind (FKEW) reaches a minimum of about 100?W?m^?2 in the equatorial region and a maximum of about 1500?W?m^?2 in the Southern Ocean. The seasonal variability of FKEW is large, about 1600?W?m^?2, along the coast of Somalia in the northern Indian Ocean. The maximum monthly variability of the FKEW field averaged over each zone occurs during boreal summer. During the onset and withdrawal of monsoon, FKEW is as low as 50?W?m^?2. The Southern Ocean has a large variation of about 1280?W?m^?2 because of strong westerlies throughout the year.     

东北地区春季首场透雨的变化特征及与青藏高原地面加热场强度的关系

利用1958—2012年4—5月东北地区(39°~55°N、118°~135°E)101个站点逐日降水资料、青藏高原地区(25°~40°N、73.75°~103.75°E)JRA-55的地面感热和潜热通量月平均再分析资料以及NCEP/NCAR-I大气环流场的月平均再分析资料,分析了春播期首场透雨出现日期的时空变化特征及其与透雨量和播种期降水量间的关系,以及对青藏高原地面加热场强度异常的响应及其可能机制。结果表明:透雨日期自1958年以来在东北地区的西北和东南大部分区域呈现略微偏晚的趋势;中部有略微偏早的趋势。春播期首场透雨出现时间偏早(晚)的地方,首场透雨量小(大),春播期总降水量多(少)。同时,4月青藏高原地面加热场强度增强(减弱),有利于(不利于)来自北方的冷空气和南方的暖湿气流在东北上空交汇,且上升气流增强(减弱),水汽输送充沛(减少),导致该地区春季首场透雨出现的时间偏早(晚)。     

Modelling long-term HFC emissions from India's residential air-conditioning sector: exploring implications of alternative refrigerants,best practices,and a sustainable lifestyle within an integrated assessment modelling framework

India's growing role in the global climate debate makes it imperative to analyse emission reduction policies and strategies across a range of GHGs, especially for under-researched non-CO₂ gases. Hydrofluorocarbons' (HFCs) usage in cooling equipment and subsequent emissions are expected to increase dramatically in India with the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants in air-conditioning equipment. We focus on the residential air-conditioning sector in India and analyse a suite of HFC and alternative coolant gas scenarios for understanding the implications for GHG emissions from this sector within an integrated assessment modelling framework. We find that, if unabated, HFC410A emissions will contribute to 36% of the total global warming impact from the residential air-conditioner sector in India in 2050, irrespective of the future economic growth trajectory, and the remaining 64% is from energy to power residential air-conditioners. A move towards more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) alternative refrigerants will significantly reduce the cumulative global warming footprint of this sector by 37% during the period 2010–2050, due to gains both from energy efficiency as well as low GWP alternatives. Best practices for reducing direct emissions are important, but only of limited utility, and if a sustainable lifestyle is adopted by consumers with lower floorspace, low GWP refrigerants, and higher building envelope efficiencies, cumulative emissions during 2010–2050 can be reduced by 46% compared to the Reference scenario.

Policy relevance

Our analysis has important implications for Indian climate policy. We highlight that the Indian government's amendment proposal to the Montreal Protocol is a strong signal to the Indian market that the transition away from high GWP refrigerants towards low/zero GWP alternatives will happen sooner or later. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency should extend building energy conservation code policy to residential buildings immediately, and the government should mandate it. Government authorities should set guidelines and mandate reporting of data related to air-conditioner coolant recharge frequency and recovery of scrapped air-conditioner units. For contentious issues like flammability where there is no consensus within the industry, the government needs to undertake an independent technical assessment that can provide unbiased and reliable information to the market.     

Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

地壳运动驱动力的探讨——核能与地球演化

本文综合核物理、天文和地质学的最新研究成果,推导出在45亿年前太阳系的全部原始类地行星及其某些卫星(包括地球及月球)上,发生过大规模的、持续的铀、钚链式核裂变,释出了巨大的热能,熔化了整个原始星球。新星球的物质发生了重力分异作用、形成了按密度划分的圈层结构。地球中心是内地核,在高压下压成了固态。铀、钚下沉到内地核顶部停留,继续发生链式核裂变,但改变不了内地核的固态性质。从此处产生的核裂变能,主要以热对流的形式外导。直到前45亿年以后,铀的链式核裂变停止了,只剩下钚的链式核裂变,生成的热能减少了,地球开始冷凝。当熔浆表面温度下降到700~800℃时,较轻的花岗岩质岩浆首先凝固成薄层。它很脆弱、经不起大风浪和潮汐力的冲击,破碎成小块,随着下面对流的玄武岩质熔浆汇集起来,形成大片飘浮物,后来就成为大陸;小片的便成为岛屿。温度逐渐下降,地幔冷凝成固体。温度下降至100℃以下,大气中的水蒸气冷凝成水,下落汇集在地表低凹处,便有了海洋和湖泊。所以海洋底主要分布着玄武岩。从内地核顶部不断产生的核能以"地幔柱"的形式穿过固体地幔,上升至地壳。受坚硬地壳的隔挡、便集中在地壳下构成软流层。当地壳岩石受热软化和可以流动之后,便开始向压力小的方向流动。又受日、月引力和地球自身自转力的作用,软流层的动能又有了增强。这种巨大的能量支配了地壳的升降、褶曲、断裂、变质、岩浆、火山和地震等活动。地球是天体之一,无时不受自然界各种作用力的影响,但支配它演化的主要作用力是核能。本文还简述了核能、核素与太阳系星体演化的关系。