地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型

本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。     

利用InSAR技术获取高寒高海拔地区高精度DEM

本文以Sentinel-1A SLC数据为原始影像,利用InSAR技术获取新疆西天山中部高寒高海拔地区小区域DEM,将获得的DEM与常用的SRTM v4 DEM和GDEMDEM进行对比分析。结果表明：利用InSAR技术处理Sentlnel-1A SLC数据可以获得分辨率为15 m的高精度DEM,该DEM数据精度优于SRTM v4 DEM和GDEMDEM,能更好地描绘地表地形细节,可作为输入数据获取地面高精度形变信息,为工程建设和地质灾害评价提供重要的基础数据。此外,该方法对DEM数据的更新也具有重大意义。     

立式储液罐地震破坏快速评估方法

本文采用大型有限元程序ANSYS对立式储液罐的地震反应进行了非线性数值分析,考虑了罐体和内部液体的相互作用,得到了3个不同容积的储罐,在不同峰值的地震动时程输入下的反应结果。结合地震灾害中立式储罐的地震破坏现象和特点,以及现有的立式储罐地震破坏预测方法,提出了立式储罐的地震破坏快速评估方法。     

澜沧江-湄公河干流底沙重金属含量空间变化及污染评价

国际河流澜沧江-湄公河流域资源开发引起的水文情势、泥沙和水环境变化一直是国际社会关注的重点.本研究选取了该河干流境内外8个关键河段的底沙进行采样,并进行5种重金属元素(锌Zn、铅Pb、铜Cu、铬Cr、砷As)含量实验测试,分析了该河干流底沙重金属含量空间变化.运用沉积学原理,应用地积累指数法和潜在生态危害指数法评价了澜沧江-湄公河流域干流底沙重金属污染的情况.结果显示:1.在澜沧江-湄公河流域干流底沙重金属元素中Zn、Pb、As在上游中国境内澜沧江底沙中的含量平均值分别为91.43 mg/kg、41.85 mg/kg、21.84 mg/kg,均大于其在下游境外湄公河底沙中平均含量,其平均含量分别为68.17 mg/kg、28.22 mg/kg、14.97mg/kg;Cr在境外湄公河底沙中含量的平均值为418.86mg/kg,大于境内上游澜沧江底沙中的平均含量42.19 mg/kg,且主要集中在琅勃拉邦和巴色采样点,其含量分别为762.93 mg/kg、422.9 mg/kg;Cu除在戛旧和界碑含量较小分别为11.7 mg/kg、7 mg/kg外,在上下游其他采样点的含量分布变化不明显.2.地积累指数法评价结果表明干流底沙重金属在上游中国境内Zn、Pb、As有污染,其中Pb、As的污染较Zn严重.在下游中国境外Cr污染较严重,其污染主要集中在琅勃拉邦和巴色两个采样点,As在巴色采样点也出现了轻微污染.3.潜在生态危害指数法评结果表明干流底沙重金属元素单一潜在生态危害系数和多种重金属潜在生态危害指数均较小,各采样点重金属潜在生态危害程度均属于轻微污染.由此可见澜沧江-湄公河境内局部河段因地球化学背景或矿产开采致使的水体和底沙重金属污染,沿程经水体稀释和水库淤积后,尚未出现污染的跨境迁移现象.本研究能在一定程度上填补澜沧江-湄公河流域在干流上对重金属污染研究的空缺,为澜沧江流域资源开发的评价影响提供理论依据.     

An adaptive capacity spectrum method for assessment of bridges subjected to earthquake action

Estimating seismic demands on structures, to predict their performance level with confidence, requires explicit consideration of the structural inelastic behaviour: to this end, the use of nonlinear static procedures is inevitably going to be favoured over complex nonlinear time-history methods. The currently available assessment procedures have been tested predominantly against building frames. A newly derived assessment procedure is proposed within the scope of bridge applications, based on an innovative displacement-based adaptive pushover technique. The procedure, which can be incorporated into a performance-based engineering philosophy, is applicable to MDOF continuous span bridges with flexible or rigid superstructures, and for varying degrees of abutment restraint. As a first application to determine the viability of the proposed procedure, a parametric study is conducted on a ensemble of bridges subjected to earthquake motion. It is shown that, compared to the seismic demand estimated by means of the more accurate nonlinear dynamic analysis tool, the novel static assessment method can lead to the attainment of satisfactory predictions, both in terms of displacement as well as moment demand on members.     

基于贝叶斯方法的深层充电效应风险模型评估

高能电子穿透航天器并在其内部沉积电荷从而引发深层充电效应,是导致卫星故障的重要因素之一.为了评估深层充电效应诱发卫星异常的风险,本文基于贝叶斯方法,使用一颗地球同步轨道卫星的异常数据和GOES-8卫星的电子通量探测数据,计算了不同能量阈值及累积时间的电子注量、不同卫星配置下模拟仿真的沉积电荷,并分别与卫星异常建立一系列概率风险模型.本文从模型中随机抽样得到模拟异常,并与实测异常构造混淆矩阵以评估模型拟合优度,结果表明>1.0 MeV电子3日累积注量-卫星异常概率风险模型为该卫星最优模型.本文利用最优模型对该卫星深层充电效应风险进行了计算,在>1.0 MeV电子3日累积注量达到2.0×10¹⁰cm^-2·sr^-1时,该卫星发生深层充电异常的平均后验概率为27%,且95%最小可信值为22%.根据最优模型,我们对该卫星最可能导致异常的部件的材料和结构等特征做出了推断.

     

2000—2020年我国西南地区植被NEP时空变化及其驱动因素的相对贡献

植被碳汇是露天煤矿生态环境评价的重要指标,精确反演植被碳汇并进行准确分级对探索矿区生态修复至关重要。为此,提出一种基于粒子群优化算法的露天煤矿植被碳汇分级方法。基于Landsat遥感影像和气象数据,采用光能利用率模型,反演出内蒙古胜利一号露天煤矿区2005—2020年间排土场的植被碳汇时空分布;通过构建目标函数并迭代计算,获取了该区植被理想光能利用率、最佳气温和降水条件,量化并建立了植被碳汇分级标准;对不同时期各个排土场的植被碳汇结果进行分级,并对分级面积和占比的时空变化进行分析。结果表明：(1) 2005—2020年间研究区植被固碳能力呈上升趋势,年均增长值和增长率分别为1.43 gC/(m²·a)和6.97%。(2) 各排土场生态修复后,植被碳汇值大幅提高,极高和高植被碳汇区面积不断扩大。(3) 排土场生态修复效果存在差异,南北排土场表现最佳,沿帮次之,内排土场相对较差。到2020年南、北排土场极高植被碳汇区面积分别达0.94和0.92 km²,占比为92%和94%;沿帮排土场极高和高植被碳汇区面积达3.64 km²,占比66%;内排土场极高植被碳汇区面积增长至1.22 km²,占比达31%;2020年南、北和沿帮排土场已不存在极低植被碳汇区。研究成果不仅为露天煤矿生态环境评估提供了重要的数据支持,也为矿区生态修复策略制定提供了科学依据。

     

个旧城区土壤中重金属潜在生态危害评价

采用Hakanson潜在生态危害指数法对个旧城区土壤重金属的潜在生态危害作出评价,并在此基础上应用Kriging插值方法进行了空间分析,得出了个旧城区土壤各等级生态危害的面积分布以及重金属潜在生态危害的空间变化特征.     

陕西省区域环境地球化学分区

为了利用地壳元素分布特征与动植物微量元素含量间的关系,指导生态环境综合治理,借助已有的基础地球化学资料,进行陕西省地球化学分区,确定各分区的环境背景值、污染起始值、缺乏临界值、过剩值临界值,并将陕西省分为陕北、关中、陕南3个地球化学区,圈定了1个元素贫化区和2个元素富集区。提出应该在元素的缺乏和过剩的异常区内进行生物体内微量元素含量的定期检测。做到对地球化学疾病及时发现及时寻找对策,以保证人类生存环境的安全,提高生存质量。     

Natural siliceous dust and human health： Pathways, toxicity, and impact

Fine atmospheric dust includes mineral particles and aggregates, fibrous minerals and fibrous organic material. Generation, dislodgement and transport （deflation） of natural dust with the finer （〈4 microns） components suspended as silt-size aggregates, is widespread in and adjacent to the world＇s drylands, as well as deriving from volcanic vents. Silica is a highly fibrogenic agent in lung tissue. Long-term inhaling of siliceous dusts can lead to a number of fibrotic lung diseases, including natural （non-occupational） pneumoconioses （notably silicosis, but including asbestosis and others）. Different polymorphs of silica show different levels of toxicity in interaction with lung tissue. Particles with highly active surfaces may release radicals, causing cell damage. Some types of inhaled particulates are degraded by macrophages, but many are highly resistant and persist in the lungs, some stimulating fibroblastic cells to deposit collagen. Silicosis is an inflammation of the lung commonly caused by silicate mineral particles, leading to fibrosis. Three types are recognized： nodular pulmonary fibrosis （simple or chronic silicosis）, acute silicosis, and accelerated silicosis. Generally, finer particulates have greater oxidative capacity than the coarser fractions. They contain more reactive oxygen species, their greater bioreactivity making them more toxic to pulmonary tissue. Nevertheless, inhalation of large dust particles （〉 10μm） may constitute a health risk if the mineralogy is toxic, regardless of where the grains lodge in the respiratory system. Dust may absorb harmful gases, disease-generating bacteria and carcinogenic hydrocarbon compounds. Silica-related respiratory disease may also an exacerbate cardiac problem, and epidemiology suggests a link with tuberculosis. Quantification of dust loading and exposure requires study of spatial and temporal patterns, supported by meteorological analysis, airflow modeling and satellite-borne imagery. Some acute, short-term health impacts have been assessed using atmospheric and health records both before and after a dust storm or by comparison of populations within and outside such events. Analysis of the size, shape, mineralogy and geochemistry of ambient dust particulates provides information on natural dust sources, dust concentrations, and potential particulate toxicity, as well as providing a datum for assessment of human exposure levels.