青藏高原东南缘活动断裂的地震应变能释放系统研究

本文以青藏高原东南缘为研究区域,利用G-R震级能量经验公式和Benioff地震应变能释放曲线,对该区域内1500年以来的历史地震应变能释放进行了系统性的研究。文中给出了各断裂带和断块区的地震应变能释放周期表,及相应的地震危险性。分析发现研究区域地震应变能的释放具有东强西弱,南强北弱的特征,整体上各断层断块区的历史地震应变能释放符合准周期模式,某些断层和断块区上的地震周期具有某种程度上的同步现象。青藏高原东南缘现今处于大释放期中,地震的危险性不能忽视。局部结果显示,安宁河-则木河断裂带、小江断裂带的危险性很高,对于这些危险区要重点跟踪研究。今后仍需结合不同研究方法来提高地震危险性评估的可靠性。     

Distribution,potential sources and ecological risks of two persistent organic pollutants in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary,Bohai Sea of China

Spatial distribution, source apportionment, and potential ecological risks of sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and seven endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary, Bohai Sea of China were analyzed. Results showed that the total PAH concentrations ranged from 28.79 ng g^? 1 dw to 281.97 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 115.92 ng g^? 1 dw) and the total EDC concentrations from 0.52 ng g^? 1 dw to 126.73 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 37.49 ng g^? 1 dw). The distribution pattern for the PAHs was generally different from that of the EDCs possibly due to their distinct sources and n-octanol-/water partition coefficients (K_OW). Qualitative and quantitative analytical results showed that PAH sources were mainly from a mixture of pyrogenic and petrogenic contributions. The higher levels at the southeast of Geligang indicated that the EDC pollutants may have mainly originated from the plastic industry and other chemical plants located along the Liao River. Ecological risk assessment revealed that PAHs exhibited low ecotoxicological effects, whereas EDCs, especially 4-tert-octylphenol and bisphenol A, had high ecological hazard to the estuarine biota.     

Long-term changes in copepods assemblages in the area of the Danube floodplain (Slovak–Hungarian stretch)

The present study investigates the relationship between hydrological connectivity and species diversity in a by-passed channel section, and in the adjacent water bodies of the Slovak–Hungarian Danube section (1,840.5–1,804.4 rkm). The study was designed to assess long-term temporal trends (from 1991 to 2013) in freshwater copepods assemblages and their ecological indices in different habitats of the Danube floodplain area. One of the purpose of this study was to monitor the species composition of copepods communities and ascertain their shift in various biotopes of the Danube floodplain system. Based on 23 years data, in the first step, the copepods habitat preferences using habitat values (HV) and indicator weights (IW), calculated from data collected over all the years of monitoring of planktonic communities of the Danube floodplain, were quantified. Subsequently, the floodplain index (FI) from a summary of the habitat values and indication weights of the current species was calculated, to evaluate changes in the connectivity of the anabranched section of the Slovak–Hungarian Danube. This confirmed the loss of active hydrological connectivity within the main river channel, ranging from the eupotamal to more or less isolated floodplain water bodies. Out of 50 recorded copepods species, 11 species manifest a preference for eupotamal habitats, 18 taxa preferred eupotamal B/parapotamal habitats and 21 species were found to prefer the plesiopotamal habitat type. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the structure of planktonic copepod communities in this area has changed since the Gabčíkovo hydropower plant was placed into operations. The NMDS analysis revealed shifts in the proportion of euplanktonic and tychoplanktonic species. Reversible community changes were found in the old river bed and in the eupotamal-B side arms.     

Probability density evolution method for seismic liquefaction performance analysis of earth dam

To investigate the seismic liquefaction performance of earth dams under earthquake loading, we present a new methodology for evaluating the seismic response of earth dams based on a performance‐based approach and a stochastic vibration method. This study assesses an earthfill dam located in a high‐intensity seismic region of eastern China. The seismic design levels and corresponding performance indexes are selected according to performance‐based criteria and dam seismic codes. Then, nonlinear constitutive models are used to derive an array of deterministic seismic responses of the earth dam by dynamic time series analysis based on a finite element model. Based on these responses, the stochastic seismic responses and dynamic reliability of the earth dam are obtained using the probability density evolution method. Finally, the seismic performance of the earth dam is assessed by the performance‐based and reliability criteria. Our results demonstrate the accuracy of the seismic response analysis of earth dams using the random vibration method. This new method of dynamic performance analysis of earth dams demonstrates that performance‐based criteria and reliability evaluation can provide more objective indices for decision‐making rather than using deterministic seismic acceleration time series as is the current normal practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IM‐based and EDP‐based decision models for the verification of the seismic collapse safety of buildings

Decision models for the verification of seismic collapse safety of buildings are introduced. The derivations are based on the concept of the acceptable (target) annual probability of collapse, whereas the decision making involves comparisons between seismic demand and capacity, which is familiar to engineering practitioners. Seismic demand, which corresponds to the design seismic action associated with a selected return period, can be expressed either in terms of an intensity measure (IM) or an engineering demand parameter (EDP). Seismic capacity, on the other hand, is defined by dividing the near‐collapse limit‐state IM or EDP by an appropriate risk‐targeted safety factor (γ _im or γ _edp ), which is the only safety factor used in the proposed decision model. Consequently, the seismic performance assessment of a building should be based on the best possible estimate. For a case study, it is shown that if the target collapse risk is set to 10^?4 (0.5% over a period of 50 years), and if the seismic demand corresponds to a return period of 475 years (10% over a period of 50 years), then it can be demonstrated that γ _im is approximately equal to 2.5 for very stiff buildings, whereas for buildings with long periods the value of γ _im can increase up to a value of approximately 5. The model using γ _edp is equal to that using γ _im only if it can be assumed that displacements, with consideration of nonlinear behavior, are equal to displacements from linear elastic analysis.     

基于高分辨率影像的九寨沟7.0级地震道路震害评估

2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震引发贯通重灾区的S301省道、Z120县道多处损坏,给应急救援和灾后重建带来较大困难。利用高分辨率无人机和卫星影像可以对道路震害情况进行评估。本文首先对道路震害进行破坏类型和破坏等级的划分,针对不同分辨率影像所表现的道路破坏特征,建立各破坏等级、各损坏类型的解译标志,并完成灾区遥感图像覆盖范围内主要道路震害的研判与评估。经统计分析,研究区域共出现110处明显破坏,其中,68处为部分损坏,42处为完全损毁,道路整体破坏严重。     

Modeling spatially correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods using principal component analysis and geostatistics

Regional seismic risk assessments and quantification of portfolio losses often require simulation of spatially distributed ground motions at multiple intensity measures. For a given earthquake, distributed ground motions are characterized by spatial correlation and correlation between different intensity measures, known as cross‐correlation. This study proposes a new spatial cross‐correlation model for within‐event spectral acceleration residuals that uses a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and geostatistics. Records from 45 earthquakes are used to investigate earthquake‐to‐earthquake trends in application of PCA to spectral acceleration residuals. Based on the findings, PCA is used to determine coefficients that linearly transform cross‐correlated residuals to independent principal components. Nested semivariogram models are then fit to empirical semivariograms to quantify the spatial correlation of principal components. The resultant PCA spatial cross‐correlation model is shown to be accurate and computationally efficient. A step‐by‐step procedure and an example are presented to illustrate the use of the predictive model for rapid simulation of spatially cross‐correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods.     

Intermediate to Long-term Estimation of Strong Earthquake Risk Areas in the Chinese Mainland Based on Geodesic Measurements

Based on previous research results, present-day crustal deformation and gravity fields in the Chinese mainland are analyzed using the GPS data, leveling, gravity and cross-fault deformations. We analyzed strain accumulation of the major faults, and identified locked or high strain accumulation segments. Combining the effects of large earthquakes in the study area, the long-term (decade) probability of large earthquakes in the Chinese mainland is estimated.