变形分析的Bayes估计与检验

由于观测条件的变化，观测值方差将产生随机波动。本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ估计理论，推导了线性模型待估参数的分布函数及观测值方差估计公式，并将其用于位移检验。计算结果表明，在同样的置信度下，本方法更符合实际。文中还对参数估值的统计性质进行了讨论。     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of     

CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS ON IMAGES OF JIANGXI PROVINCE AS A TOURIST DESTINATION

1IN T R O D U C T IO NAn image isa setofbelief,s ideasand impressionsthatapersonholdsaboutan object(KOTLER,1991).Similar-lydefinitionistheimage of a destinationas thesum ofbelief,sideasand impressionsthatpeoplehave ofa placeor destination(CROMPTON,1979;KO…     

沉积物粒度分析在厦门市第四纪环境研究和地层划分对比中的应用

采用MS2000型激光粒度分析仪进行测试，利用计算机粒度分析软件对数据进行整理和计算，绘制出样品的频率曲线、概率累积曲线以及粒度众数位值曲线等图件并进行沉积环境分析。厦门地区第四纪环境演化经历了中更新世同安组(含泥中粗砂、含泥细中砂、砂为主)海积一冲积一更新统上部龙海组(含泥粗中砂、含泥细中砂、含泥粗砂、粗砂、细中砂、含细砾中粗砂、中细砂等)冲积一洪冲积一更新世上部东山组(砂、砂砾、含泥中粗砂、粗砂、泥质中细砂、细砂、中粗砂等)冲洪积及部分海积(粉砂、细粉砂、含碳质泥、粘土、淤泥质粘土、粉砂质粘土等)一全新世长乐组(粉砂，淤泥质粘土、粉砂质粘土、碳质粘土、含砂淤泥质粘土，粉砂质亚粘土、粉细砂亚粘土等)海湾沉积。在解释环境变化的同时，说明粒度变化曲线在一定程度上可以作为地层划分的依据之一，并以此对研究区地层进行了详细划分。     

Geo-effectiveness of solar wind extremes

Examples of extreme events of solar wind and their effect on geomagnetic conditions are discussed here. It is found that there are two regimes of high speed solar wind streams with a threshold of ∼ 850 km s^-1. Geomagnetic activity enhancement rate (GAER) is defined as an average increase in Ap value per unit average increase in the peak solar wind velocity (Vp) during the stream. GAER was found to be different in the two regimes of high speed streams with +ve and-ve IMF. GAER is 0.73 and 0.53 for solar wind streams with +ve and -ve IMF respectively for the extremely high speed streams (< 850 km s^-1). This indicates that streams above the threshold speed with +ve IMF are 1.4 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with -ve IMF. However, the high speed streams below the threshold with -ve IMF are 1.1 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with +ve IMF. The violent solar activity period (October–November 2003) of cycle 23 presents a very special case during which many severe and strong effects were seen in the environment of the Earth and other planets; however, the z-component of IMF (Bz) is mostly positive during this period. The most severe geomagnetic storm of this cycle occurred when Bz was positive.