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地质灾害评估是协调人地关系研究的重要内容,可为大型工程建设的前期工作提供基本依据。本文采用模糊综合评价法,选择历史灾害危险性、潜在灾害危险性2个基本要素和相应的8个评价因子,对甘肃省洮河莲麓水电站建设用地地质灾害危险性进行了评估。结果表明:河谷地貌区和山间盆地地貌区地质灾害危险性中等,中山地貌区地质灾害危险性小。 相似文献
44.
Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability.
We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of
scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source
effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations
are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing
purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M
w
= 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation
relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances
<50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained
by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity
effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree
with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis. 相似文献
45.
Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals 总被引:1,自引:3,他引:1
Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper
tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular,
the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high
and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists
of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε
max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether
a physical basis for choosing ε
max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion
models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of
causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible
to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain
direct physical constraints on ε
max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice
of ε
max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated
with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε
max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore,
the absolute truncation level implied by ε
max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε
max value impractical. 相似文献
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48.
Migration plays an increasing role in China's economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China's interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985-2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China (Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region), and they are classified into three types: mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China's economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China's future interprovincial migration. 相似文献
49.
根据中奥(奥地利)两国政府1992-1994年科技合作协议,开展了《北京山区荒溪分类与危险区制图技术研究》.介绍了该研究的目的、方法与成果,根据实践的经验,提出了进一步开展荒溪危险区制图的有关建议. 相似文献
50.