Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.     

AHP及模糊综合评判法在路基长期稳定性评价中的应用

根据对一低液限粉土路基的现场工程地质调查及检测,确定了影响该路基长期稳定性的主要影响因素,并结合AHP法,应用两级模糊综合评判的方法对该路基的长期稳定性进行了评价。     

A large landslide on the urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona

A granitic rock avalanche, one of the largest Quaternary landslides in Arizona outside the Grand Canyon with a volume of approximately 5.25 M m³ and a width a little under 0.5 km, ran 1 km from the eastern McDowell Mountains. With lateral levees and pressure ridges, the rock avalanche deposit displays many features found on classic sturzstroms. Failure occurred along a major joint plane paralleling the slope with a dip of 44°, when a major base level lowering event in the Salt River system would have undermined the base of the failed slope, and probably during a period of more moisture than normally available in the present-day arid climate. Failure at the subsurface weathering front highlights the importance of the dramatic permeability change between grussified regolith and relatively fresh bedrock. Rock varnish microlaminations (VMLs) dating, in concert with other geomorphic evidence, suggests that the rock avalanche deposit is slightly older than 500 ka. The rock vanish results also have important implications for sampling strategies designed to use cosmogenic nuclide to date Quaternary landslide deposits. Discovery of a large landslide in close proximity to the extending urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix argues for a more careful analysis of landslide hazards in the region, especially where rapid development excavates bedrock at the base of steep mountain slopes and where the subsurface weathering front is near the surface.     

厦门市海沧区北市花岗岩矿滑坡形成机制及治理设计

厦门市海沧区北市花岗岩矿滑坡发生于2004年10月30日14时。滑坡位于呆场的西端帮顶部的第四系填土和淤泥质土层中，滑体将该区域原设的抗滑桩剪断、拔出、推移，土石迅速越过矿区运输公路，塌落到采场工作面，将正在作业的2名工人和生产设备掩埋。滑坡宽度约60m，最大垂直厚度约14m，总体积约13000m^3。由于滑坡对原有防护体系的破坏，根据滑体调查和极限平衡计算结果，滑坡处于不稳定状态，直接威胁着整个采场设备和未来生产的安全。必须对北市花岗岩矿滑坡进行专项治理。滑坡宜采用治水、削坡减载和支挡相结合的综合治理措施。     

地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例

城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。     

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

One-dimensional consolidation of soil under multistage load based on continuous drainage boundary

In engineering practice, a rapid loading rate can result in ground failure when the strength of soft soils is relatively low, and a multistage loading scheme is always utilized to deal with this situation. Firstly, under a multistage load and the continuous drainage boundary, an analytical solution of excess pore-water pressure and consolidation degree is obtained by virtue of the superposition formula of excess pore-water pressure, and a more general continuous drainage boundary under arbitrary time-dependent load is developed. Then, a comparison with existing analytical solutions is conducted to verify the present solution. A preliminary attempt on applying the continuous drainage boundary into the finite element model is made, and the feasibility of the numerical model for the one-dimensional consolidation under the continuous drainage boundary is verified by comparing the results calculated by FEM with that from present analytical solution. Finally, the consolidation behavior of soil is investigated in detail for different int erface parameters or loading scheme. The results show that, in land reclamation projects, a horizontal drain should be placed close to the boundary with a smaller interface parameter to improve the consolidation efficiency. The degree of consolidation is also related to the applied time-dependent load and interface parameters.     

雅安芦山4.20震后县级单元生态系统风险评价

区域生态风险评价是对各种生态风险及环境问题进行评价和管理的重要手段。针对雅安地震灾区特殊的自然地理及生态环境特征,选取芦山县为研究对象,采用遥感、GIS及SPSS统计分析的方法,通过风险源、风险受体、暴露和易损性分析,建立生态风险综合评价模型,划分生态风险区类型,进而提出生态风险管理对策。结果表明:1)微度和低度生态风险区集中分布在高海拔的森林及草地生态系统,该区生物多样性丰富,抗干扰能力较强,地质灾害及人类活动影响较小;2)中度和高度生态风险区具有沿农田及建设用地生态系统集聚分布的特征,该区地质灾害频繁,地壳活动性较强,生态系统抵抗灾害的能力较差。研究结果可为地震灾区防御、规避风险及安全选址提供科学依据。     

2000～2015年会理县地表覆盖变化监测

以LandSat多时相影像为数据源,采用基于规则的面向对象分类方法,监测会理县2000～ 2015年地表覆盖变化.结合1∶50 000 DEM数据,分析了会理县地表覆盖构成与转移、变化动态度及潜在退耕地情况.监测分析结论能为会理县加强空间管制、促进土地资源集约利用、指导生态文明建设等提供决策信息支撑.