宁夏灵盐地区荒漠化灾害与农牧业持续发展

分析了宁夏灵盐地区荒漠化灾害过程中自然环境与人力活动的相互作用，并讨论了区域农牧业经济发展的“退耕还牧”治沙等社会问题。在第四纪地质时期荒漠化的发生发展是一种“气候－地貌”的自然过程；在人类历史时期是气候主控下人为叠加干扰的“自然－人为”地貌过程。自然环境与人为活动具有使荒漠化发生正向或逆转变化的双重机制。     

浅谈雅江县城南各种地质灾害的关系

对雅江县城南地质灾害的产生原因作了查明，为下一步综合整治提供依据。     

泥石流等级和灾度的定量计算

泥石流等级是描述一次泥石流规模大小的定量指标,泥石流灾度是描述一次泥石流造成社会损失大小的定量指标。这两个指标概念明确,简单易行,有利于使描述泥石流规模大小和灾情程度的术语逐步规范化、定量化和普及化。     

90年代世界贸易发展及空间格局变化的新特点

在世界贸易组织、日趋强烈的开放的区域主义倾向、跨国公司强劲的直接投资影响下，世界贸易正在经历着巨大变化，处在一个新的转换时期。本文从影响当今世界贸易发展的多重因素分析，揭示90年代世界贸易增长、内容结构以及空间格局发展变化的新特征，并展望世界贸易的未来发展。     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

区域地质灾害趋势预测理论与方法

区域地质灾害趋势预测对于国家土地资源的合理开发利用和制定减灾防治对策具有重要意义。本文总结了区域地质灾害三个层次评估的理论与方法, 即基于自然属性的地质灾害研究、基于风险分析的地质灾害研究和基于信息-决策支持系统的地质灾害研究。作者认为, 运用GIS技术, 将这三层次的评价方法结合起来, 是进行区域地质灾害趋势预测的有效途径。本文最后介绍了1∶600万全国地质灾害趋势预测图编制的思路与成果。     

王家山煤矿地裂缝的形成及其灾害

王家山煤矿断层密集，地裂缝发育，采空塌陷严重，这三者构成严重的地质灾害链。地裂缝的形成和发展，使矿区人民的生命财产遭受了惨重的损失。从工程地质及地质灾害的角度进行分析，认为新构造运动是动态的地质背景，黄土的特殊物理力学性质是静态的地质基础，人为的采空塌陷是地裂缝群产生的主要原因     

Preliminary seismic hazard maps of Slovenia

The preparation of the preliminary seismic hazard maps of the territory of Slovenia has been based on an expansion of the basic approach laid out by Cornell in 1968. Three seismic source models were prepared. Two of them are based mainly on the earthquake catalogue using the Poissonian probability model. A map of seismic energy release and a map of earthquake epicenter density are used to delineate seismic sources in these models. The geometry of the third model which is based on a rough estimate of seismotectonic setting is taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a nuclear power plant in Slovenia. Published ground motion attenuation models based on strong motion records of recent strong earthquakes in Italy are used. Test maps for variable and uniform b-values are presented. The computer program, Seisrisk III, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used.     

Hazard mapping based on macroseismic data considering the influence of geological conditions

The object of this study is to consider directly the influence of regional geological conditions on the assessment of seismic hazard. It is assumed that macroseismic data at individual locations contain, in an average way, the influence of geological conditions.A Data Base referring to 199 historical (5) and instrumental (194, in the 1947–1993 period) events with macroseismic information in 1195 locations of Portugal was built. For any given seismic event, whenever macroseismic information was available at a location (town, village, etc.), an EMS-92 intensity value was estimated. To each one of those locations a geological unit, representing the most common type of soil, was assigned, based on the Geological Portuguese Map at a scale 1:500 000; the geological units were grouped into three categories: soft, intermediate and hard soils.The Data Base was used to determine the attenuation laws in terms of macroseismic intensity for the three different geological site conditions, using multiple linear regression analysis. The reasonability of the laws was tested by (i) checking residual distributions and (ii) comparing the map of isoseismals of important earthquakes with the isoseismals generated by the attenuation curves derived for each one of the three different soil classes, taking into consideration the soil class of each site. The main results of attenuation modeling are: high dispersion on macroseismic intensity data; all the models predict intensity values, for short hypocentral distances, lower than the ones observed; and for some important analyzed earthquakes and for the observed range of distances, the models confirm the expectancy that macroseismic intensity increases from hard to soft soil.The approach to obtain the hazard assessment at each location consisted in the use of the attenuation law specifically derived for the class of soil of that particular location. This method, which considers the influence of the regional geology, was illustrated with the mapping of hazard for the country for several return periods. Comparison with previous maps not taking into consideration the regional geological conditions emphasizes the importance of this new parameter. It can be concluded that (i) soil segmentation is clearly the cause for hazard increase in the region to the north of Lisbon, especially at sites with soft and intermediate soils as the ones in lower Tagus valley; the maximum increase on hazard is, in any case, less than one degree; (ii) when geological conditions are disregarded in the attenuation regression analysis, hazard pattern is similar to the one obtained for the case of hard soil everywhere.     

Seismic hazard assessment in the Ionian Islands based on observed macroseismic intensities

Catalogues of actual observed intensities are constructed for three towns in the Ionian Islands. They are used for seismic hazard assessment and the results are compared with those obtained by standard approaches; that is, by statistics applied to the data computed from epicentral parameters. The results show that seismic hazard is better assessed using observed rather than computed data, but preparation of the local catalogue presents non-trivial difficulties.