1997年伽师地震临震预报的经验与启示

１９９７年１￣４月新疆伽师发生罕见的强震群活动。几个月内在十分狭小的区域内发生７次６级强震,是新疆几十年来从未遇到过的。概述了伽师地震３次准确和较为准确的临震预报;总结了地点已知的后续强震临震预报的科学和实践问题;论述了震例总结与现实预报的差异,以及地震孕育的复杂性和地震预报的现实做法。     

基于GIS冰川末端变化计算方法研究——以北极Austre Lovénbreen冰川为例

基于冰川区地形图和实地GPS测量数据,总结4种用于计算冰川末端变化量的方法:主流线法、中心线法、周长法和特征点法,并提出基于GIS的操作思路.分析了各种方法的优缺点,阐述了各种方法在使用中的注意事项.建议使用最短距离的特征点法计算冰川末端变化量,并且以前一期的特征点向后一期的冰川边界搜索最短距离.通过把方法应用在北极Austre Lovénbreen冰川,结果表明,自2005年观测以来北极Austre Lovénbreen冰川末端呈现退缩趋势,年均退缩量为9.44m.a-1,年际变差系数为0.40,冰川末端变化量年际变化较大.     

“以后”和“后来”

对“以后”和“后来”进行详细深入的对比分析。在语义上,“以后”可以表示时间和范围,“后来”只用来表示过去的时间;在句法功能上,方位词“以后”既可以单用也可以作后置成分,而时间名词“后来”常常单用,单用的“以后”和“后来”在同现副词、连词以及句式选择上都有着不同的特点。最后对留学生学习过程中出现的偏误作了简要分析。     

Physical Modeling of Fold-and-Thrust Belt Evolution and Triangle Zone Development:Dabashan Foreland Belt(Northeast Sichuan basin,China) as an Example

Triangle zones,generally found in foreland fold-and-thrust belts,serve as favorable objects of petroleum exploration.Taking the Dabashan foreland belt as an example,we studied the formation and development of triangle zones,and investigated the effect of decollements and the mechanical contrast of lithology by employing the method of physical modeling.Four experimental models were conducted in the work.The results showed that ’sand wedges’ grew episodically,recorded by deformational length,height and slope angle.The height versus shortening rate presented an S-shape curve,and uplifting occurred successively in the direction of the foreland belt.During the formation of the triangle zone,layer-parallel shortening took place at the outset;deformation decoupling then occurred between the upper and lower brittle layers,divided by a middle-embedded silicone polymers layer.The upper brittle layers deformed mainly by folding,while the lower sand layers by thrusting. As shortening continued,the geometry of a triangle zone was altered.We consider that the triangle zone in the Dabashan foreland belt was modified from an early one based on available seismic profiles and the experimental results.In addition,decollements and mechanical contrast impose significant influence on structural development,which can directly give rise to structural discrepancies.More decollements and obvious mechanical contrast between brittle layers can promote the coupling between the upper and lower brittle layers.Basal decollement controls the whole deformation and decreases the slope angle of the wedge,while roof decollement determines whether a triangle zone can be formed.     

沙漠绿洲戈壁区域同化预报系统降水预报检验

基于沙漠绿洲戈壁区域同化预报系统(Desert Oasis Gobi Regional Assimilation and Forecast System,简称"DOGRAFS"),对2012年11月1日—2013年10月31日逐日四次预报的6h累积降水量和实况资料,利用TS、ETS和BS评分统计量,对该系统的降水预报能力进行客观检验评估,结果表明:总体而言,模式预报效果存在一定的季节差异,夏秋两季预报评分高于冬春两季;对于同一降水阈值,系统不同起报时间对降水的预报结果差别不大,但总体上12 UTC略优于其它三个时次;模式对降水的预报能力随着降水阈值的增大而逐渐降低,其中,对0.1 mm·(6 h)-1阈值的降水预报性能最稳定,对3.1 mm·(6 h)-1和6.1 mm·(6 h)-1两阈值次之但预报范围与实况比较吻合,对12.1 mm·(6 h)-1以上的大阈值降水过程,整体把握能力还有待提高。另外,针对2013年5月26—29日南疆一次极端强降水天气个例进行分析,不同起报时间对强降水时段的落区和量级的预报能力参差不齐,其中26日12UTC的预报结果最优;对其增量场分析表明,同化的资料对预报初始场中、低层的风场、温度场以及湿度场都有明显的调整作用,对预报结果有较好的正效应。     

近震震源深度测定精度的理论误差分析

震源深度是地震学中最难准确测定的参数之一,各种方法对于震源深度的估计都具相当程度的不确定性,影响着人们对震源过程的认识。各种因素对震源深度的影响是非线性的,本文从近震走时公式入手,分析了震中距、到时残差和速度模型(地壳模型)对震源深度的影响。当地震波传播速度一定时,震源深度的误差随着震中距或台站距离的增大和走时残差的增大而增大。走时残差一定时,震源深度误差随着震中距的增大和地震波速度的增大而增大。研究也表明,当速度已知,走时残差一定时,越浅的地震,定位误差可能越大。定位精度产生的水平误差随着震中距、走时误差和地震波速度的增大而增大,震源深度误差也将增大。另外,震源深度的误差会导致发震时刻的变化,随之而来的结果都会因此而改变。     

新疆吐尔库班套蛇绿混杂岩的发现及其地质意义

蛇绿岩作为残留洋壳的良好记录,对于研究古板块构造及其演化具有重要意义。新发现的吐尔库班套蛇绿混杂岩位于新疆阿尔泰布尔津南部,主要由超镁铁岩、辉长岩、辉绿岩、玄武岩、复理石建造等构成。其中辉长岩和片麻状花岗岩的锆石U Pb年龄在363～355 Ma,指示蛇绿岩的形成、洋壳俯冲时代在晚泥盆世晚期。岩石地球化学特征表明,该蛇绿岩套的镁铁超镁铁岩和玄武岩属低碱、低钛、富镁的拉斑玄武岩系列,具有较典型的幔源岩石特征,玄武岩形成于类似洋中脊的构造环境。混杂岩带中的片麻状花岗岩属于钠质的低钾岩石系列,形成于火山弧或同碰撞构造环境,亦为洋壳俯冲的结果。吐尔库班套蛇绿岩与科克森套、乔夏哈拉、布尔根蛇绿岩一起构成了沿额尔齐斯分布的蛇绿混杂岩带,构成了分割西伯利亚板块和哈萨克斯坦-准噶尔板块的斋桑-科克森套-南蒙古缝合带。     

Profiles of the Hα and Hβ lines in the spectra of B and Be stars in the diffuse stellar cluster h/χ Persei

High dispersion CCD spectra are used to study the profiles of the Hα and Hβ lines of 48 stars in early spectral classes in the young diffuse binary cluster h/χ Per. In addition, moderate resolution spectra of 15 B and Be stars were taken over the interval 4400–4960 Å. One or, possibly, two new Be stars are discovered. The major parameters of the Hα line are measured for the observed B and Be stars. The spectra over 4400–4960 Å are used to estimate T_eff, logg, and υsin i. No traces of emission are detected in the Hα line profiles for 28 of the stars and emission is observed in the Hα line for 20. During our observations an absorption profile of the Hα line was observed for some of the stars, such as Oo146, Oo566, Oo922, and Oo1268, although they have previously been identified as Be stars. A significant long-term variability of the Hα line is discovered for the Be stars Oo1161 and Oo2242. Oo2371 manifests a variability in its faint emission spectrum which is typical of close binary systems that include a Be star. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 305–319 (May 2008).     

青海省玛沁县友后青地区钴铜矿化带成矿地质特征及找矿前景

青海玛沁县友后青地区大地构造位置处于阿尼玛卿缝合带内,在友后清地区发现了与基性-超基性岩体关系密切的钴铜矿化带。本文主要分析了友后青地区钴铜矿化带的成矿地质特征,认为华力西-印支期NW-NWW向的深大断裂控制着钴铜成矿作用。高精度磁测显示,区内有一条近NWW走向的磁异常带,异常强度中等偏高,呈串珠状分布。水系沉积物测量表明,以镍钴铬为主的多金属综合异常规模大,元素组合齐全,镍钴铬元素异常套合好。水系沉积物地球化学异常与高精度磁测异常可以很好的叠合在一起,在空间上与基性-超基性岩关系密切。沿NW-NWW向断裂带,与基性-超基性岩叠合较好的物化探异常区是该地区寻找钴铜矿的有利地段。