基于水热平衡原理的塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模分析

结合近40 a水文气象资料,基于水热平衡原理,构建模型,分析和讨论了20世纪70、80、90年代以及2000年以来塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模与耕地面积,并结合相应不同时期的遥感影像,对各时期实际绿洲规模进行了比较。结果表明：近40 a来,塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模和耕地规模趋于收缩,但2000年以后有所扩大;20世纪80年代的绿洲耕地面积与计算得出的适宜耕地规模基本平衡,之后严重超出绿洲承载能力,2009年超出幅度达1.22×10⁴ hm²;耕地面积过大已导致塔里木河下游绿洲进入了不稳定状态,当前应采取措施适度缩小绿洲规模,并及时有效地控制耕地面积。     

一个两时间层分裂显格式海洋环流模式(MASNUM)及其检验

A two-time-level, three-dimensional numerical ocean circulation model（named MASNUM） was established with a two-level, single-step Eulerian forward-backward time-differencing scheme. A mathematical model of large-scale oceanic motions was based on the terrain-following coordinated, Boussinesq, Reynolds-averaged primitive equations of ocean dynamics. A simple but very practical Eulerian forward-backward method was adopted to replace the most preferred leapfrog scheme as the time-differencing method for both barotropic and baroclinic modes. The forward-backward method is of second-order of accuracy, computationally efficient by requiring only one function evaluation per time step, and free of the computational mode inherent in the three-level schemes. This method is superior to the leapfrog scheme in that the maximum time step of stability is twice as large as that of the leapfrog scheme in staggered meshes thus the computational efficiency could be doubled. A spatial smoothing method was introduced to control the nonlinear instability in the numerical integration. An ideal numerical experiment simulating the propagation of the equatorial Rossby soliton was performed to test the amplitude and phase error of this new model. The performance of this circulation model was further verified with a regional（northwest Pacific） and a quasi-global（global ocean simulation with the Arctic Ocean excluded） simulation experiments. These two numerical experiments show fairly good agreement with the observations. The maximum time step of stability in these two experiments were also investigated and compared between this model and that model which adopts the leapfrog scheme.     

Stability Study of a Tide Embankment Subjected to Sea Level Variations Using Centrifugal Model Tests

To investigate the behavior of dredged-sea-sand fill compacted inside tide embankments with a damaged geosynthetic mat, centrifugal model tests and numerical simulation were conducted, both considering variations in sea level. The results from the three centrifugal model tests demonstrate that the subsidence of the dredged-sea-sand fill inside tide embankments with a damaged geosynthetic mat was strongly affected by the loss of dredged-sea-sand into the filter layers with large particles and a decrease in the bearing capacity of the filter layers with small particles. In addition, a comparison of the test and simulation results confirms that the loss of sand into the filter layer and the subsidence of the dredged-sea-sand fill were well reproduced by the numerical simulation.     

Optimisation of underwater visual census and controlled angling methods for monitoring subtidal temperate reef fish communities

Standardised sampling protocols for monitoring fish stocks are essential to assess changes in stock status and provide a means to evaluate the effectiveness of fisheries management measures, such as marine protected areas (MPAs). This study aimed to optimise two standard sampling methods, namely underwater visual census (UVC) and controlled angling, for assessing subtidal reef fish communities. In terms of efficiency, variability and bias, UVC transects were found to be superior to point counts. For controlled angling, an effort of two angler-hours per fishing station provided low catch variability, high catch per unit effort and a representative catch. Whereas UVC provided less variable estimates of relative density, controlled angling provided greater sampling efficiency. It is thus recommended that the two methods be used in conjunction. The optimal sampling protocols identified are suitable for rapid assessments or long-term monitoring of subtidal, temperate reef fish communities.     

Technical change in fisheries

Technical change in fisheries is an under-researched area in resource economics and management. This is surprising, because technical progress is the main driver of the development in fishing power and capacity. This article reviews the recent research and development in technology that have occurred in fisheries. New policy implications of introducing technical change into the standard bioeconomic model are illustrated. Bycatch saving technical change is critical to bycatch reduction and ecosystem based fisheries management, and optimal policies cost-effectively reduce bycatch, create incentives to induce bycatch saving technical change, and establish technology policy for research and development.     

风暴潮灾害情景下海岸带暴露指数时空演变研究——以福建省东山湾为例

暴露指数反映了环境在面对极端天气事件时承受灾害的潜在风险程度。研究利用遥感影像数据、数字高程数据(DEM)、海洋水深及风力数据等, 基于暴露指数模型, 以福建省东山湾为案例研究区域, 对风暴潮灾害情景下的海岸带暴露指数及其时空演变进行分析。研究结果显示: (1)近十年来, 东山湾海岸带暴露指数总体呈下降趋势, 潜在风险程度为“中”及以上区域占比由67.14%下降至59.06%, 海岸带在面对风暴潮灾害等极端天气事件时潜在的风险程度总体降低, 海湾地貌类型差异及其形态变化是影响东山湾暴露指数产生波动的主要原因; (2)基于暴露指数评价结果, 结合海岸带开发利用现状, 研究可对东山湾海岸带生态环境的敏感区域进行识别, 并制定具有针对性的开发利用与风险防范对策, 为海岸带空间规划、生态保护修复格局的科学划定提供理论支撑, 在助力海岸带陆海统筹和可持续发展上具有重要意义; (3)研究提出的一种基于时间序列的暴露指数研究技术路线和框架, 可为海岸带脆弱性评估、海岸带韧性评估、海岸带灾害监测预警等相关研究提供新的研究视角, 在基于深度学习的海岸带灾害风险预警与灾害模拟等方面也具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

地下水封石油洞库渗流场的数值分析

对研究区水文地质条件和地下水封石油洞库、水幕系统进行了概化,利用Visual MODFLOW软件,建立了某地下水封石油洞库无水幕和有水幕条件下的三维地下水数值模拟模型,模拟了地下水封石油洞库区的渗流场。利用所建模型预报了2种条件下涌入地下水封石油洞库的涌水量、区域地下水降落漏斗扩展情况及洞库上方地下水位变化情况等。由预测结果可知,2种条件下洞库涌水量均逐渐减小并趋于稳定,而有水幕条件下的地下漏斗扩展范围和速度均比无水幕条件小;在洞库开挖初期水幕作用较小,随时间延长作用愈加明显,因此水幕系统在保证地下水封石油洞库的储油安全和保护周围地下水资源方面都起到重要作用。     

台湾岛附近海洋对0908号台风“莫拉克”的响应特征

在模拟2009年登陆我国东部沿海的台风"莫拉克"的基础上,利用AVHRR/AMSR和SODA再分析数据和模拟结果,初步评估了GRAPES-ECOM海-气耦合模式(上海台风研究所基于GRAPES-TCM区域台风模式和ECOM海洋模式开发而成)模拟台风期间海洋响应的能力,并分析了台风期间台湾岛周围海域的海温、上升流、中尺度冷涡等的变化特点。分析结果表明,GRAPES-ECOM耦合模式较好地模拟了表层海温对台风的响应,与深水海洋响应比较,揭示了近海对台风响应的一些新特征:(1)在台湾以东海域,台风活动改变了黑潮海域海水的垂直运动,诱导黑潮南部沿岸上升流,而北部先于台风存在的上升流减弱,导致不同水深海温的最大降温位置都出现在路径左侧,与深海偏向路径右侧不同;(2)位于台湾岛东北面的彭佳屿冷涡因其形成与大陆架和黑潮有关,当台风在台湾以东洋面活动时,冷涡位于台风右前方,黑潮表层海水辐合流向大陆架,冷涡中心温度上升,强度减弱,当台风转折北上,冷涡位于台风东南侧,表层海水辐散,加强底层冷水上涌,从而增强了该冷涡的强度;(3)台风不仅加深了台湾海峡的混合层深度,还使得海水的垂直热力结构改变,并使整层海温趋于一致。     

太湖风浪场的计算与比较

首先探讨了浅水风浪数值模型—SWAN模型应用于模拟内陆湖泊风浪生成和传播变形时的特点。该模型存在不能有效地模拟近固壁边界处风浪场的缺点,以能正确地模拟湖区的风浪场和节约计算时间为原则,确定了计算范围。对太湖进行了风场和风浪场的现场观测。分别利用规范公式和SWAN模型两种方法、根据观测和预报的风场计算了湖区的有效波高,并将计算结果和现场观测值进行了详细比较。结果表明基于观测的风场,利用两种方法所计算的太湖风浪场的精度基本相当;在根据观测的风场、利用SWAN模型计算内陆湖泊的风浪场时,需要精心选择恰当的风场;在根据预报的风场预报湖区风浪场时,SWAN模型的精度要高于规范公式的精度。     

Australia’s no-take marine protected areas: Appropriate conservation or inappropriate management of fishing?

The absence of properly identified mechanisms to adequately protect the marine environment remains a major shortcoming in Australia’s commitment to biodiversity conservation. The current commitment to a National Representative System of Marine Protected Areas (NRSMPA) falls far short of providing adequate protection against the suite of existing and potential threats even though areas are designated as being ‘protected’. In this paper it is argued that the actions taken under the NRSMPA are disproportionately concentrated on regulating fishing, including the closing of areas in so-called sanctuary zones to all types of fishing. In the absence of clearly identified threats from most forms of fishing and without assessment of how best to manage those few fishing threats that have been identified, such actions are inefficient and mostly inappropriate. Moreover, they do not provide adequate protection against the full suite of threats to marine environments. Adequate measures for the proper conservation of these areas and/or the protection of marine biodiversity more generally are not being provided and in most cases threats are not even adequately described and evaluated.