山东省优质地下水资源评价研究

地下水是水资源的重要组成部分,山东省作为我国的北方大省,近年来随着人口的增长和经济发展,地下水环境问题日渐突出,表现为水质型缺水和水源型缺水两方面。本文以山东省地下水为研究对象,对全省富水地段及已建水源地逐一进行水质评价及开采潜力评价研究,结果显示:山东省优质水占49.53%,主要分布在鲁中南山区和鲁东低山丘陵区,新圈定的优质地下水富水地段及有开采潜力水源地共计88处,优质地下水允许开采量184.095×10~4m^3/d,可满足一千余万居民生活用水需求。应急情况下富水地段(水源地)允许开采量为434.299×10~4m^3/d,应急开采潜力为279.295×10~4m^3/d,可解决两千余万人生活用水困难。     

江西兴国均村-高兴地区氟水文地球化学特征研究

氟广泛分布于地下水且与人体健康相关,世界上许多国家和地区均存在高氟水。本文以江西省均村-高兴地区为例,结合区域水文地质调查成果开展地下水中氟水文地球化学特征研究,探讨研究区地下水中F-的分布特征与来源。对研究区4个地下水系统中的442个地下水样品的F-、Ca²⁺、HCO_3^-浓度及pH值、TDS等进行分析,研究认为各地下水系统地下水中的F-浓度与Ca²⁺浓度、HCO_3^-浓度、pH值、TDS正相关,含氟矿物的溶解是地下水中氟的主要来源,较强烈的地下水交替条件及弱酸性的地下水特征是导致地下水中氟浓度低的重要原因。     

处置单元核素135Cs迁移数值模拟研究

根据高放废物地质处置库概念设计,以北山花岗岩为参考岩性,内蒙古高庙子膨润土为参考缓冲材料,使用数值模拟软件tough2对放射性核素¹³⁵Cs在处置单元及其围岩中的迁移行为进行了数值模拟研究,考虑放射性核素衰变释热对核素迁移的影响。研究表明:膨润土对核素具有较强的滞留作用,模拟200000年后核素在花岗岩中迁移了1 m左右,且峰值为10-6个数量级;前10 a模型的温度变化最剧烈且温差最大,10 a后模型整体温度开始降低,2 000 a后整体温度接近于初始温度;温度的变化会引起核素迁移速率的改变,但总体温度对核素迁移的影响不大。     

IPCC AR6报告解读：未来的全球气候——基于情景的预估和近期信息

依据IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告第四章的内容,对未来全球气候的预估结果进行解读。报告对21世纪全球表面气温、降水、大尺度环流和变率模态、冰冻圈和海洋圈的可能变化进行了系统评估,并对2100年以后的气候变化做了合理估计。评估指出全球平均表面气温将在未来20年内达到或超过1.5℃,平均降水也将增加,但随季节和区域而异,同时变率将增大。大尺度环流和变率模态受内部变率影响较大。到21世纪末,北冰洋可能出现无冰期;全球海洋会继续酸化,平均海平面将持续上升,百年内上升幅度依赖不同排放情景,都在2100年后继续升高。在最新的评估中采用多种约束方法,减小了预估不确定性的范围。AR6对于低排放情景以及“小概率高增暖情节”的关注为应对气候变化提供了更多、更完整的信息。综合报告的评估结果指出,未来需要进一步减小区域,特别是季风区气候预估的不确定性,并从科学研究和模式发展两方面加强我国气候预估能力的建设。     

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候系统对太阳辐射干预响应

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告评估了太阳辐射干预（Solar radiation modification,SRM）对气候系统和碳循环的影响。在大幅度减排基础上,太阳辐射干预有潜力作为应对气候变化的备用措施。目前,对于太阳辐射干预气候影响的评估都是基于模式模拟结果。评估主要结论如下：太阳辐射干预可以在全球和区域尺度上抵消一部分温室气体增加造成的气候变化（高信度);但是太阳辐射干预无法在全球和区域尺度上完全抵消温室气体增加引起的气候变化（几乎确定);有可能通过适当的太阳辐射干预设计,同时实现多个温度变化减缓目标（中等信度);在高强度温室气体排放情景下,如果太阳辐射干预实施后突然终止,并且这种终止长时间持续,将会造成快速的气候变化（高信度);如果在减排和CO₂移除的情况下,太阳辐射干预的实施强度逐渐减小至零,将显著降低太阳辐射干预突然终止产生的快速气候变化风险（中等信度);太阳辐射干预会通过降温作用,促进陆地和海洋对大气CO₂的吸收（中等信度),但是太阳辐射干预无法缓解海洋酸化（高信度);太阳辐射干预对其他生物化学循环影响的不确定性大。由于对云-气溶胶-辐射过程的相互作用和微物理过程认知有限,目前对平流层气溶胶注入、海洋低云亮化、高层卷云变薄等太阳辐射干预方法的冷却潜力和气候效应的认知还有很大的不确定性。     

Evaluation of effectiveness of three fuzzy systems and three texture extraction methods for building damage detection from post-event LiDAR data

Building damage maps after disasters can help us to better manage the rescue operations. Researchers have used Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data for extracting the building damage maps. For producing building damage maps from LiDAR data in a rapid manner, it is necessary to understand the effectiveness of features and classifiers. However, there is no comprehensive study on the performance of features and classifiers in identifying damaged areas. In this study, the effectiveness of three texture extraction methods and three fuzzy systems for producing the building damage maps was investigated. In the proposed method, at first, a pre-processing stage was utilized to apply essential processes on post-event LiDAR data. Second, textural features were extracted from the pre-processed LiDAR data. Third, fuzzy inference systems were generated to make a relation between the extracted textural features of buildings and their damage extents. The proposed method was tested across three areas over the 2010 Haiti earthquake. Three building damage maps with overall accuracies of 75.0%, 78.1% and 61.4% were achieved. Based on outcomes, the fuzzy inference systems were stronger than random forest, bagging, boosting and support vector machine classifiers for detecting damaged buildings.     

Development of groundwater favourability map using GIS-based driven data mining models: an approach for effective groundwater resource management

The development of groundwater favourability map is an effective tool for the sustainability management of groundwater resources in typical agricultural regions, such as southern Perak Province, Malaysia. Assessing the potentiality and pollution vulnerability of groundwater is a fundamental phase of favourability mapping. A geographic information system (GIS)-based Boolean operator of a spatial analyst module was applied to combine a groundwater potentiality map (GPM) model and a groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (GVPI) map, thereby establishing the favourable zones for drinking water exploration in the investigated area. The area GPM model was evaluated by applying a GIS-based Dempster–Shafer–evidential belief function model. In the evaluation, six geoelectrically determined groundwater potential conditioning factors (i.e. overburden resistivity, overburden thickness, aquifer resistivity, aquifer thickness, aquifer transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity) were synthesized by employing the probability-based algorithms of the model. The generated thematic maps of the seven hydrogeological parameters of the DRASTIC model were considered as pollution potential conditioning factors and were analysed with the developed ordered weighted average–DRASTIC index model algorithms to construct the GVPI map. Approximately 88.8 and 85.71% prediction accuracies for the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps were established using the reacting operating characteristic curve method and water quality status–vulnerability zone relationship scheme, respectively. Finally, the area groundwater favourability map (GFM) model was produced by applying a GIS-based Boolean operator on the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps. The GFM model reveals three distinct zones: ‘not suitable’, ‘less suitable’ and ‘very suitable’ zones. The area analysis of the GFM model indicates that more than 50% of the study area is covered by the ‘very suitable’ zones. Results produce a suitability map that can be used by local authorities for the exploitation and management of drinking water in the area. The study findings can also be applied as a tool to help increase public awareness of groundwater issues in developing countries.     

Subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin,before and after the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake,Nepal Revealed from Small Baseline Subset-DInSAR Analysis

Land subsidence in densely urbanized areas is a global problem that is primarily caused by excessive groundwater withdrawal. The Kathmandu Basin is one such area where subsidence due to groundwater depletion has been a major problem in recent years. Moreover, on 25 April 2015, this basin experienced large crustal movements caused by the Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8). Consequently, the effects of earthquake-induced deformation could affect the temporal and spatial nature of anthropogenic subsidence in the basin. However, this effect has not yet been fully studied. In this paper, we applied the SBAS-DInSAR technique to estimate the spatiotemporal displacement of land subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin before and after the Gorkha earthquake, using 16 ALOS-1 Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) images during the pre-seismic period and 26 Sentinel-1 A/B SAR images during the pre- and post-seismic periods. The results showed that the mean subsidence rate in the central part of the basin was about ?8.2 cm/year before the earthquake. The spatial extents of the subsiding areas were well-correlated with the spatial distributions of the compressible clay layers in the basin. We infer from time-series InSAR analysis that subsidence in the Kathmandu basin could be associated with fluvio-lacustrine (clay) deposits and local hydrogeological conditions. However, after the mainshock, the subsidence rate significantly increased to ?15 and ?12 cm/year during early post-seismic (108 days) and post-seismic (2015–2016) period, respectively. Based on a spatial analysis of the subsidence rate map, the entire basin uplifted during the co-seismic period has started to subside and become stable during the early-post-seismic period. This is because of the elastic rebound of co-seismic deformation. However, interestingly, the localized areas show increased subsidence rates during both the early-post- and post-seismic periods. Therefore, we believe that the large co-seismic deformation experienced in this basin might induce the local subsidence to increase in rate, caused by oscillations of the water table level in the clay layer.     

燕辽海盆中元古界下马岭组沉积期的物源性质与古地理环境

通过对河北省张家口下花园区夏家沟古城梁、怀来县赵家山等剖面地质测量,分析了1400 Ma前沉积的下马岭组岩性变化、沉积序列与海平面升降演化、岩石矿物组分与重矿物组合,认为下马岭组沉积时期发育温暖湿润的气候条件及多期热带风暴作用,早期的大规模风暴与浊流等事件沉积,晚期的浅海陆棚风暴岩、深水陆棚泥页岩、细粒浊积岩及安静水体的泥灰岩透镜体(灰泥饼)等是其鲜明的沉积响应.该时期发育一次长期缓慢的海平面上升-下降过程,对应一个二级层序.内幕可细分为五次海平面升降变化,对应五个三级层序;下马岭组沉积早期的物质组分主要以砂质、泥质为主,晚期转化为以泥质、灰质、云质为主,砂质减少,两种类型的物质组合系统先后影响燕辽裂陷槽;下马岭组沉积时期,具有双物源性质,除了主要来自于东部的山海关古隆起外,晚期可能也有西部山西古陆提供物源,来自北部的沉积物源不发育,推测北部的内蒙-冀北隆起(内蒙地轴)不存在,燕辽盆地具有西陡东缓的箕状断陷盆地特征,盆地古地形、物源供给变化与多级次海平面振荡变化控制了下马岭组沉积物的时空演化特征.该研究为1400 Ma前华北克拉通北部燕辽盆地岩相古地理的恢复提供了重要参考.